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Report
How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate
Atkeson, Andrew (2020-03-31)
To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate in the epidemiological literature as to whether the fatality rate is 1% or 0.1% or somewhere in between. In this note, I use an SIR model to examine why it is difficult to estimate the fatality rate from the disease and how long we might have to wait to resolve this question absent a large-scale randomized testing program. I focus on uncertainty over the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases at the start of the epidemic around January ...
Staff Report , Paper 598

Briefing
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New England Homeowners and Renters
Chiumenti, Nicholas (2020-05-18)
Job losses and likely layoffs related to the COVID-19 pandemic will put many New England residents at risk of not being able to pay their mortgage or rent and needing financial assistance and state-government safeguards to remain in their homes. Economic interventions from Congress, primarily through the federal CARES Act, include direct payments to households and increased unemployment insurance benefits that are expected to provide vital support to many of these households for the next three to four months. Even with these efforts, 2 to 3 percent of New England homeowners and 9 to 13 ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2020-02

COVID-19 and Unauthorized Immigration at the Southwest Border
Grittayaphong, Praew; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2021-01-14)
A drop in U.S. enforcement encounters in the spring suggested the pandemic temporarily slowed unauthorized entry attempts, but such encounters have risen in recent months.
On the Economy

Briefing
Rental Affordability and COVID-19 in Rural New England
Chiumenti, Nicholas (2021-04-21)
Although a shortage of affordable rental housing is often framed as an urban-area issue, rural communities also suffer from this problem. On average, rural and urban renters spend similar shares of their income on rent and have comparable rates of housing-cost burden. Years of slow income growth and skyrocketing rents, particularly during the 2000–2010 period, have eroded slack in household budgets that may have gone toward other expenses or toward savings. The coronavirus pandemic likely has exacerbated affordability problems by putting many rural residents out of work. The share of jobs ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2021-1

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2021-03-26)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent-life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and vice versa. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of mitigation policies such as a stay-at-home subsidy and a stay-at-home order. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare gain that benefits all individuals. Second, Pareto-improving mitigation policies can reduce deaths by ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Working Paper
Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19
Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky (2020-04-14)
The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise if it changed behavior long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A common explanation for such a long-lived effect is the scarring of beliefs. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their impact on future economic outcomes. We find that the long-run effect of the COVID crisis depends crucially on whether bankruptcies and changes in habit make existing capital obsolete. A policy that avoided most permanent separation of workers from capital could generate a much larger benefit than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-009

Discussion Paper
Treasury Market Liquidity during the COVID-19 Crisis
Fleming, Michael J.; Ruela, Francisco (2020-04-17)
A key objective of recent Federal Reserve policy actions is to address the deterioration in financial market functioning. The U.S. Treasury securities market, in particular, has been the subject of Fed and market participants’ concerns, and the venue for some of the Fed’s initiatives. In this post, we evaluate a basic metric of market functioning for Treasury securities— market liquidity—through the first month of the Fed’s extraordinary actions. Our particular focus is on how liquidity in March 2020 compares to that observed over the past fifteen years, a period that includes the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200417

Housing Distress in the Time of COVID-19
Ricketts, Lowell R. (2020-08-03)
As of late July, 12.5% of Americans were experiencing housing distress. Which groups are experiencing the most housing distress?
On the Economy

A Look at the Fed’s Emergency Lending Programs
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-12-22)
The Federal Reserve launched an alphabet soup of programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the Economy

The “She-Cession” Persists, Especially for Women of Color
Kent, Ana Hernández; Covington, Meredith (2020-12-24)
During most of the pandemic, women have experienced higher unemployment rates than men. Women of color have been hit particularly hard.
On the Economy

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