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Discussion Paper
Moving Out of a Flood Zone? That May Be Risky!
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2023-04-20)
An often-overlooked aspect of flood-plain mapping is the fact that these maps designate stark boundaries, with households falling either inside or outside of areas designated as “flood zones.” Households inside flood zones must insure themselves against the possibility of disasters. However, costly insurance may have pushed lower-income households out of areas officially designated a flood risk and into physically adjacent areas. While not designated an official flood risk, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and disaster data shows that these areas are still at considerable risk ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230420b

Working Paper
Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?
Bakkensen, Laura; Nquyen, Quynh; Phan, Toan; Shuler, Paul (2023-09-14)
An important yet less studied factor in determining the extent of adaptation to climate change is information: are people adequately informed about their vulnerability to future climate-related risks, and does their willingness to adapt depend on this knowledge? Focusing on how communication about projected sea level rise (SLR) affects the willingness to migrate, we implemented a large randomized control survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of more than 7,000 respondents across all provinces in Vietnam. We randomly assign respondents to different information treatments. ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-09

Journal Article
Freshwater Scarcity Risk Rises in the U.S. and Eighth District
Jenkins, Suzanne (2021-07-02)
Although fresh water was once considered abundant, growing scarcity issues are putting pressure on parts of the U.S.—including in the Fed’s Eighth District.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications
Brunetti, Celso; Caramichael, John; Crosignani, Matteo; Dennis, Benjamin; Kotta, Gurubala; Morgan, Donald P.; Shin, Chaehee; Zer, Ilknur (2022-07-05)
This report has two objectives: 1. Review the available literature on Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks (CRFSRs) as it pertains to the United States. Specifically, the literature review considers several modeling approaches and aims to 1.1 Identify financial market vulnerabilities (e.g., bank leverage), 1.2 Provide an assessment of those vulnerabilities (high/medium/low) as identified by the current literature, and 1.3 Evaluate the uncertainty surrounding these assessments based on interpretation of the findings and coverage of existing literature (high/low). 2. Identify methodologies ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-043

Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Belfiori, Elisa; Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2024-07-16)
We study climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good. Using household expenditure and emissions data, we document that low-income households have higher emissions per dollar spent than high-income households, making a carbon tax regressive. We build a model that captures this fact and study climate policies that are neutral with respect to the income distribution. A central feature of these policies is that resource transfers across consumers are ruled out. We show that the constrained optimal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 427

Working Paper
Climate Shocks in the Anthropocene Era: Should Net Domestic Product Be Affected by Climate Disasters
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Sliker, Brian (2023-10-30)
The monetary costs of weather and climate disasters in the U.S. have grown rapidly from 1980 to 2022, rising more than 5 percent in real terms annually. Much of this real growth in costs is likely due to climate change. Regardless of its cause, these costs imply a faster depreciation of real assets. We argue that the expected depreciation from these events could be included in the consumption of fixed capital, leading to lower levels, and slightly lower growth rates, for net domestic product (NDP). We use Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood regressions to estimate this expectation and to ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-24

Working Paper
How Climate Change Shapes Bank Lending: Evidence from Portfolio Reallocation
Meisenzahl, Ralf R. (2023-03-30)
I document how bank lending has changed in response to climate change by analyzing changes in bank loan portfolios since 2012. Using supervisory data providing loan-level portfolios of the largest U.S. banks, I find that banks significantly reduced lending to areas more impacted by climate change starting around 2015. Using flood risk and wildfire risk as proxies for climate risk, I estimate a one standard deviation increase in climate risk reduces county-level balances in banks’ portfolios by up to 4.7 percent between 2014 and 2020 in counties with large loan balances. The aggregate trend ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-12

Discussion Paper
The Adverse Effect of “Mandatory” Flood Insurance on Access to Credit
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2022-05-23)
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was designed to reduce household and lender flood-risk exposure and encourage lending. In this post, which is based on our related study, we show that in certain situations the program actually limits access to credit, particularly for low-income borrowers—an unintended consequence of this well-intentioned program.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220523

Journal Article
Impact of U.S. Labor Productivity Losses from Extreme Heat
Fried, Stephie; Casey, Gregory; Gibson, Matthew (2024-05-28)
Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow how much capital is built up for future use and thus can have long-lasting impacts on overall economic outcomes. Combining estimates of lost labor productivity due to extreme heat with a model of economic growth suggests that, by the year 2200, extreme heat will reduce the U.S. capital stock by 5.4% and annual consumption by 1.8%.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 14

Journal Article
The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity
Arnaut-Hull, Zoë; Jordà, Òscar; Nechio, Fernanda (2023-10-16)
Countries’ commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can have important implications for their economies. Data since the 1800s reveal that the amount of CO2 emissions generated for a given level of output follows a bell-shaped curve. Pairing this with projections of future economic growth can help in predicting future overall emissions. Comparing actual data with past projections for levels of emission intensity reveals that reductions have been slower than predicted over the past 40 years. This divergence highlights the challenges many countries may face in reaching their ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 27 , Pages 6

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