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Journal Article
Designing effective auctions for treasury securities
Most discussions of treasury auction design focus on the choice between two methods for issuing securities--uniform-price or discriminatory auctions. Although auction theory and much recent research appear to favor the uniform-price method, most countries conduct their treasury auctions using the discriminatory format. What are the main issues underlying the debate over effective auction design?
Working Paper
Flow and stock effects of large-scale Treasury purchases
Using a panel of daily CUSIP-level data, we study the effects of the Federal Reserve's program to purchase $300 billion of U.S. Treasury coupon securities announced and implemented during 2009. This program represented an unprecedented intervention in the Treasury market and thus allows us to shed light on the price elasticities and substitutability of Treasuries, preferred-habitat theories of the term structure, and the ability of large-scale asset purchases to reduce overall yields and improve market functioning. We find that each purchase operation, on average, caused a decline in yields ...
Journal Article
Income effects of Federal Reserve liquidity facilities
One of the chief actions taken by the Federal Reserve in response to the financial crisis was the introduction or expansion of facilities designed to provide liquidity to the funding markets. A study of the programs suggests that the liquidity facilities generated $20 billion in interest and fee income between August 2007 and December 2009, or $13 billion after taking into account the estimated $7 billion cost of funds. Moreover, the Fed took important steps to limit the credit exposure it incurred in connection with the facilities.
Working Paper
The behavior of the spread between Treasury bill rates and private money market rates since 1978
The Treasury bill rate is generally viewed as the representative money market rate.
Journal Article
No volatility, no forecasting power for the term spread
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Working Paper
The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation
This article examines the dynamic relationship between two key U.S. money market interest rates - the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Using daily data over the period 1974 to 1999, we find a long-run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across monetary policy regimes of interest rate and monetary aggregate targeting. Employing a non-linear asymmetric vector equilibrium correction model, which is novel in this context, we find that most of the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium occurs through the federal funds rates. In turn, there is ...
Working Paper
The implied volatility of U.S. interest rates: evidence from callable U. S. Treasuries
The prices for callable U.S. Treasury securities provide the sole source of evidence concerning the implied volatility of interest rates over the extended 1926-1994 period. This paper uses the prices of callable as well as non-callable Treasury instruments to estimate implied interest rate volatilities for the past sixty years, and, for the more recent 1989-1994 period, the cross-sectional term structures of implied interest rate volatility. We utilize these estimates to perform cross-sectional richness/cheapness analysis across callable Treasuries. Inter alia, we develop the optimal call ...
Working Paper
The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present
The discount function, which determines the value of all future nominal payments, is the most basic building block of finance and is usually inferred from the Treasury yield curve. It is therefore surprising that researchers and practitioners do not have available to them a long history of high-frequency yield curve estimates. This paper fills that void by making public the Treasury yield curve estimates of the Federal Reserve Board at a daily frequency from 1961 to the present. We use a well-known and simple smoothing method that is shown to fit the data very well. The resulting estimates ...
Journal Article
Measuring treasury market liquidity
This paper was presented at the conference "Economic Statistics: New Needs for the Twenty-First Century," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, and the National Association for Business Economics, July 11, 2002. Securities liquidity is important to those who transact in markets, those who monitor market conditions, and those who analyze market developments. This article estimates and evaluates a comprehensive set of liquidity measures for the U.S. Treasury securities market. The author finds that the commonly used bid-ask ...