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Journal Article
Fluctuating fortunes and Hawaiian house prices
Real estate prices in a local market can be driven by an identifiable group of purchasers. In Hawaii, residents of both the U.S. mainland and Japan have been significant purchasers of homes. An analysis suggests that house prices in Hawaii were driven primarily by purchasers from the U.S. mainland for most of the 1975?2008 period. But, during Japan?s ?bubble economy? in the late 1980s and immediately thereafter, house prices in Hawaii were driven primarily by demand from Japan.
Working Paper
Regime shifts in real estate markets: Time-varying effects of the U.S. and Japanese economies on house prices in Hawaii
We show that house prices may be driven entirely by the demands of one identifiable group for several years and then by demands of another group at other times. We present evidence that house prices in Hawaii were subject to such regime shifts. Prices responded to demands associated with American income and wealth for most years from 1975 through 2008. From the middle of the 1980s through the early 1990s, however, house prices responded to Japanese income and wealth. Statistical tests indicate that the regime-shifting model outperformed the constant-coefficient model. The regime shifting ...