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Journal Article
The Limited Supply of Homes
Jordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.
Working Paper
Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?
We use a housing search model and data on individual home listings to decompose fluctuations in home sales and price growth into supply or demand factors. Simulations of the estimated model show that housing demand drives short-run fluctuations in home sales and prices, while variation in supply plays only a limited role. We consider two implications of these results. First, we show that reduction of supply was a minor factor relative to increased demand in the tightening of housing markets during COVID-19. New for-sale listings would have had to expand 30 percent to keep the rate of price ...
Newsletter
Why Housing Has Been So Strong, but Might Not Be for Long
The current monetary policy tightening cycle has seen the fastest increases in the fed funds rate in more than 40 years. While not all tightening cycles have led to significant increases in mortgage rates (e.g., the 1988, 2016, and 2004 cycles), this time around mortgage rates have increased by close to 400 basis points (bps) in the first seven months since lift off (see figure A1 in the appendix). In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe how this increase has shaped (and is still shaping) the dynamics of the housing sector.