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Working Paper
Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US
The consumption behaviour of U.K., U.S. and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S. but not Japanese households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio shifted up in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage downpayment constraints eased and as the ...
Journal Article
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for the period 1976-2005. An early-1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Journal Article
Beyond the border: Japan's economy still looks recessionary
Journal Article
Economic conditions in Korea and Japan: a monetary policymaker's report
Each year, the President of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve Board Governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a "fact-finding" trip to the region. These trips advance the Bank's broad objectives of serving as a repository of expertise on economic, banking, and financial issues relating to the Pacific Basin and of building ties with policymakers and economic officials there. The knowledge gained and the contacts developed are valuable in understanding trends affecting the Twelfth District, in carrying out responsibilities in banking supervision, and in ensuring that ...
Journal Article
Does Japan offer any lessons for the United States?
In the late 1990s, some observers began to make comparisons between the rapid rise in stock prices then taking place in the United States and the escalation in asset values in Japan in the late 1980s. Did Japan's experience, which was followed by more than a decade of stagnation, contain any cautionary lessons for the United States? With the recent slowing in the pace of U.S. economic activity, the question has been asked more earnestly; and while the prevailing view remains that the United States is not Japan, the denials have been less forceful. ; This article compares Japan's experience ...
Journal Article
Economic problems facing post-treaty Japan
Journal Article
How big is Japan's debt?
Journal Article
Japan's growth performance over the last decade
Speech
Excerpts from Remarks on the process of creative destruction
Remarks to the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce and the Fort Worth Petroleum Club, Leaders in Government Series, Fort Worth, Texas, January 19, 2006 ; "There is a dynamic tension in Japan today. Prime Minister Koizumi has taken on the old political dinosaurs. Young entrepreneurs gathered in the new office buildings in the Roppongi Hills area of Tokyo and elsewhere have challenged the tightly interwoven culture of the old Japanese corporate hierarchy. Foreign investment has positioned itself for a sea change in Japan's direction."