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Journal Article
Are high-quality firms also high-quality investments?
The relationship between corporate reputation and investment results is the subject of ongoing debate. Some argue that high-quality firms ultimately provide superior stock price performance; others counter that stock prices already reflect these firms' prospects for growth and profitability. This study advances the debate by providing fresh evidence that investing in high-quality firms yields above-average returns and that these superior returns continue for up to five years.
Journal Article
Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates
Working Paper
End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period's exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly ...
Journal Article
Leverage ratios of U.S. non-financial corporations
Conference Paper
Hail! Seekers of the golden fleece
Journal Article
What profits?
Journal Article
How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?
Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Alice von Ende-Becker present evidence that markup growth was a major contributor to inflation in 2021. Specifically, markups grew by 3.4 percent over the year, whereas inflation, as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures, was 5.8 percent, suggesting that markups could account for more than half of 2021 inflation. However, the timing and cross-industry patterns of markup growth are more consistent with firms raising prices in anticipation of future cost increases, rather than an increase in monopoly power or higher demand.
Report
The evolution and determinants of corporate profits: an international comparison
This paper compares the trends and determinants of U.S. profits with those of Japan, Germany and Canada in a model of pricing-to-market in the export and domestic markets. We find that (I) all countries exhibit a negative-trended profit share; (ii) pass-through is incomplete for all countries, and exchange rate elasticities are larger in smaller countries; (iii) a currency appreciation hurts U.S. profits and helps Japanese profits via imported inputs channel; (iv) during the 1970s unit production costs lowered profits in all countries. After 1980, cost factors still affected profits except in ...