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Working Paper
Credit cards and money demand: a cross-sectional study
Working Paper
An inflation goal with multiple reference measures
Most inflation-targeting central banks express their inflation objective in terms of a range for a single official inflation measure but generally have not clarified the meaning of the ranges and their implications for policy responses. In formulating policy, all central banks monitor multiple inflation indicators. This paper suggests an alternative approach to communicating an inflation goal: announcing point-values, rather than ranges, for a few key reference measures of inflation that are used in making policy. After reviewing and extending relevant theoretical and empirical studies, the ...
Working Paper
Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets
In recent years, financial markets appear better able to anticipate FOMC policy changes. Beginning in the late 1980s and early 1990s, longer-term interest rates and futures rates have tended to incorporate movements in the federal funds rate several months in advance, in contrast to the largely contemporaneous response typically observed before that time. After identifying these emerging trends, the paper parses the enhanced predictability into a component that can be attributed to the autoregressive behavior of the funds rate and a non-autoregressive component. The paper considers ...
Working Paper
Tunnels and reserves in monetary policy implementation
In recent years, some central banks have implemented monetary policy without reserve requirements by using a ceiling and floor for overnight interest rates established by central bank lending and deposit facilities. This paper analyzes a theoretical model of such a "tunnel" system and the benefits of adding reserve requirements to it. However, reserve requirements may involve social costs owing to the reserve avoidance activities of banks. The paper also presents a modified model with no reserve avoidance, where banks optimally choose to hold voluntary reserve requirements. The paper ...
Working Paper
A minor redefinition of M2
This paper recommends redefining M2 by shifting overnight wholesale RPs and overnight Eurodollars from non-M1 M2 to non-M2 M3. The overnight components are quite volatile and difficult to measure accurately. Their movements no longer exhibit the negative correlation with demand deposits that had been observed in 1980, when these components were originally included in M2. The redefinition does not affect the quarterly and annual behavior of M2, nor its relationship to interest rates and income.
Working Paper
Overnight interbank loan markets
This paper investigates transactions and interest rates on brokered and direct trades in federal funds, Eurodollar transactions, and repurchase agreements, all of which are used by banks in overnight funding. We expand on earlier work on calendar-day effects in these markets, investigating also volumes of funding in recent years. Our data include daily trades in federal funds reported by major brokers and also records of uncollateralized transactions over the wire transfer system operated by the Federal Reserve. We find that the share of the overnight interbank loan market represented by ...
Working Paper
Capital requirements, business loans, and business cycles: an empirical analysis of the standardized approach in the new Basel Capital Accord
In the current regulatory framework, capital requirements are based on risk-weighted assets, but all business loans carry a uniform risk weight, irrespective of variations in credit risk. The proposed new Capital Accord of the Bank for International Settlements provides for a greater sensitivity of capital requirements to credit risk, raising the question of whether, and to what extent, the new capital standards will intensify business cycles. In this paper, we evaluate the potential cyclical effects of the "standardized approach" to risk evaluation in the new Accord, which involves the ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors
Most central banks now implement monetary policy by trying to hit a target overnight interest rate using one of two types of frameworks. The first involves arrangements for depository institutions to hold a minimum account balance over a multi-day averaging period. The second uses the central bank's lending rate as a ceiling and its deposit rate as a floor for overnight interest rates. Either averaging or a rate corridor can help a central bank hit a target interest rate, but each framework can also have weaknesses in achieving that goal and, in some cases, other associated drawbacks. This ...