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Working Paper
Monetary policy and price stability
This paper explores issues that arise in implementing monetary policy under conditions of sustained price stability. We discuss several issues that concern the selection of a central bank's inflation objective under such conditions: price measurement; the behavior of other key variables, particularly wages; and the possible existence of other channels through which low inflation could change relationships within the real economy. We present a framework for analyzing monetary policy reaction functions that can illuminate the choices facing policy makers in a regime of price stability. The zero ...
Working Paper
Output and inflation in the long run
Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis-specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G-7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log-level of output are cointegrated, thus rejecting the existence of a long-run relation between output growth and inflation. Typically, output and inflation are ...
Working Paper
ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis
The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined with both innovations and deficiencies of the U.S. credit market, are believed to have contributed to the U.S. housing bubble and to the buildup in financial vulnerabilities that led to the financial crisis. Because the GSG countries for the most part restricted their U.S. purchases to Treasuries and ...
Working Paper
Stochastic behavior of the world economy under alternative policy regimes
This paper uses a multicountry econometric model with rational expectations to analyze the effects of alternative monetary policy regimes on the stability of various macroeconomic variables in the face of stochastic shocks to the economy. The policy regimes use a short-term interest-rate instrument to respond to deviations of various target variables from their targeted values. The principal conclusions are that there are significant tradeoffs between stabilizing output and stabilizing prices, and that more aggressive targeting can lead to large increases in interest-rate variability with ...
Working Paper
A guide to FRB/Global
This paper describes the structure and illustrates the key features of FRB/Global, a large-scale macroeconomic model used in analyzing exogenous shocks and alternative policy responses in foreign economies and in examining the impact of these external shocks on the U.S. economy. FRB/Global imposes fiscal and national solvency constraints and utilizes error-correction mechanisms in the behavioral equations to ensure the long-run stability of the model. In FRB/Global, expectations play an important role in determining financial market variables and domestic expenditures. Simulations can be ...
Working Paper
Block distributed methods for solving multi-country econometric models.
This paper examines variations on a baseline Fair-Taylor algorithm used to solve multi-country, rational expectations models. One notable feature of these variations is the ability to exploit small-scale distributed processing using a network of workstations or PCs. Using four processors to solve MX-4 (152 endogenous variables), the largest speedup factor relative to Fair-Taylor is 59; for RE-7 (978 endogenous variables) the maximum speedup factor is 12.
Working Paper
An empirical analysis of policy coordination in the United States, Japan and Europe
Coordination of macroeconomic policy has been a major topic at recent summit meetings, and has been the subject of a number of theoretical studies. However, relatively little empirical research exists on policy coordination. This paper is an attempt to help fill this gap. The paper considers the quantitative importance of the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy under flexible exchange rates. We also evaluate the mechanisms by which the effects of macroeconomic policy are transmitted abroad. The nature of the equilibrium reached in the absence of coordination is also analyzed, and the ...
Working Paper
The structure and properties of the FRB multicountry model.Part I: Model description and simulation results
The FRB Multicountry Model (MCM) is a linked system of five quarterly national macroeconometric models of the United States, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The MCM emphasizes international linkages, and has equations for trade in goods and services, investment income flows, and exchange rates. This paper documents the current version of the MCM. The paper describes the theoretical structure of the model, and presents the empirical estimation results. The paper also describes a series of simulations of fiscal and monetary policy scenarios and external shocks. A complete ...