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Conference Paper
Labor supply in the new century
To explore the labor-supply trends that will affect economic policymaking in the twenty-first century, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston chose "Labor Supply in the New Century? as the theme for its 52nd Annual Economic Conference held in June 2007. The conference?s six papers and its keynote address by Eugene Steuerle provide a broad overview of the quantity and quality implications of labor-supply trends.
Conference Paper
Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview
Most economic developments are hard to predict. Considerable uncertainty surrounds forecasts for output growth, inflation, and unemployment a year from now, for instance. But demographic developments are different in this respect. Although demographic surprises abound, the major trends build slowly, and the broad contours of medium-term outcomes become discernible well in advance.
Discussion Paper
A new approach to raising Social Security’s earliest eligibility age
While Social Security?s Normal Retirement Age (NRA) is increasing to 67, the Earliest Eligibility Age (EEA) remains at 62. Similar plans to increase the EEA raise concerns that they would create excessive hardship on workers who are worn-out or in bad health. One simple rule to increase the EEA is to tie an increase to the number of quarters of covered earnings. Such a provision would allow those with long work lives?presumably the less educated and lower paid?to quit earlier. We provide evidence that this simple rule would not satisfy the goal of preventing undue hardship on certain workers. ...
Conference Paper
Social Security reform: links to saving, investment and growth
Journal Article
Fundamental tax refund
Working Paper
Potential effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market
The effect of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market will likely persist even after economic output has recovered. Although the recession did not greatly change the relative probabilities of job loss for different types of workers, the long-run impact will vary by worker characteristics. Workers who lost long-term jobs during the Great Recession are at increased risk of future job loss due to the loss of protection afforded by long-term job tenure, and older displaced workers are at a relatively high risk of prolonged spells of unemployment and premature retirement. The recent increase ...
Conference Paper
Social Security reform: an overview
Journal Article
Social security reform: an overview
Recent decades have seen a trend toward longer life expectancy and reduced birth rates across the globe. This is good news -- the pressures created by rapid population growth are being relaxed, and people are more likely to live to old age -- but it creates problems for programs such as Social Security, which are designed to provide for the consumption needs of the elderly. In the United States, the retirement of the baby boom generation will result in a decrease in the number of workers per Social Security beneficiary from 3.3 now to 2.2 in the year 2030. The decrease in the ratio of workers ...
Working Paper
Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages
One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of there being a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers is increasingly being replaced by a pattern of there being roughly equal percentages of workers of different ages. One might expect that the increasing relative supply of older workers would lower the wage premium paid for older, more experienced workers. ; This paper provides strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Econometric estimates ...
Report
Living beyond our means
Both the current account deficit and the federal fiscal deficit are symptoms of living beyond our means. In this essay, we first provide the basic conceptual background, starting with some elements of national income accounting. We show how the two deficits are related to each other, and how they may be affected by public policy and private actions that impact economic behavior. We then cover the facts about the two deficits--their magnitude and their recent history. Next comes the question of sustainability and the long term consequences of the deficits. We conclude with an overview of the ...