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Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Hamburg Crisis of 1799 and How Extreme Winter Weather Still Disrupts the Economy
Morgan, Donald P.; Skeie, David R.; Narron, James (2014-08-08)
With intermittent war raging across much of Western Europe near the end of the eighteenth century, by about 1795, Hamburg had replaced Amsterdam as an important hub for commodities trade. And from 1795 to 1799, Hamburg boomed. Prices for goods increased, the harbor was full, and warehouses were bulging. But when a harsh winter iced over the harbor, excess demand and speculation drove up prices. By spring, demand proved lower than supply, and prices started falling, credit tightened, and the decline in prices accelerated. So when a ship bound for Hamburg laden with gold sunk off the coast, an ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140808

Report
Payday holiday: how households fare after payday credit bans
Strain, Michael R.; Morgan, Donald P. (2007)
Payday loans are widely condemned as a ?predatory debt trap.? We test that claim by researching how households in Georgia and North Carolina have fared since those states banned payday loans in May 2004 and December 2005. Compared with households in all other states, households in Georgia have bounced more checks, complained more to the Federal Trade Commission about lenders and debt collectors, and filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection at a higher rate. North Carolina households have fared about the same. This negative correlation?reduced payday credit supply, increased credit ...
Staff Reports , Paper 309

Journal Article
The Main Street Lending Program
Arseneau, David M.; Van den Heuvel, Skander J.; Fillat, José; Morgan, Donald P.; Mahar, Molly (2022-06-01)
The Main Street Lending Program was created to support credit to small and medium-sized businesses and nonprofit organizations that were harmed by the pandemic, particularly those that were unsupported by other pandemic-response programs. It was the most direct involvement in the business loan market by the Federal Reserve since the 1930s and 1940s. Main Street operated by buying 95 percent participations in standardized loans from lenders (mostly banks) and sharing the credit risk with them. It would end up supporting loans to more than 2,400 borrowers and co-borrowers across the United ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Local or state? Evidence on bank market size using branch prices
Edelstein, Paul; Morgan, Donald P. (2006-05)
With the elimination of state laws against branching, banks can now compete across states. They are no longer limited to competing in local markets, defined by the Federal Reserve as metropolitan statistical areas or small groups of rural counties. Accordingly, a "local or state?" debate over market size is taking place among researchers, with some arguing that banking markets are statewide and others contending that they remain local. This article contributes to the debate with a novel, arguably better, indicator of market size: bank branch prices, as opposed to bank deposit rates. The ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 12 , Issue May , Pages 15-25

Journal Article
Monetary policy issues in the 1990s: a summary of the Bank's 1989 symposium
Morgan, Donald P. (1990-01)
Economic Review , Volume 75 , Issue Jan , Pages 50-59

Discussion Paper
Is the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Working?
Morgan, Donald P. (2012-06-04)
While the name of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act suggests two goals, BAPCPA seemed to be more about abuse prevention than consumer protection. The abuse alleged by proponents of BAPCPA, particularly credit card lenders, was that filers were using Chapter 7 bankruptcy to avoid paying credit card debt they could afford to pay. BAPCPA aimed to curb the alleged abuse through a variety of obstacles, most notably a means test intended to divert better off filers from Chapter 7, where credit card and other unsecured debts are discharged (forgiven), to Chapter 13, where ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120604

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Financial Stability: The Weather Channel
Blickle, Kristian S.; Morgan, Donald P. (2022-04-04)
Climate change could affect banks and the financial systems they anchor through various channels: increasingly extreme weather is one (Financial Stability Board, Basel Committee on Bank Supervision). In our recent staff report, we size up this channel by studying how U.S. banks, large and small, fared against disasters past. We find even the most destructive disasters had insignificant or small effects on bank stability and small and positive effects on bank income. We conjecture that recovery lending after disasters helps stabilize larger banks while smaller, local banks’ knowledge of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220404

Report
Bank commitment relationships, cash flow constraints, and liquidity management
Morgan, Donald P. (2000)
Evidence in this paper suggests that a close banking relationship--a loan commitment in particular--relaxes cash flow and cash management constraints on firms. Given firms' prospects (Q), the investment and cash flow correlation is substantially lower when firms have a bank loan commitment. The difference in cash flow sensitivity reflects differences in firms' cash management practices in the face of cash flow shocks. Firms with a commitment simply run down their stocks of cash (or borrow more) when their cash flow falls but their investment prospects remain strong. The different ...
Staff Reports , Paper 108

Journal Article
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy
Morgan, Donald P. (1993-04)
Economic Review , Volume 78 , Issue Q II , Pages 21-33

Report
The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act: means-testing or mean spirited?
Dick, Astrid A.; Ashcraft, Adam B.; Morgan, Donald P. (2007)
Thousands of U.S. households filed for bankruptcy just before the bankruptcy law changed in 2005. That rush-to-file was more pronounced, we find, in states with more generous bankruptcy exemptions and lower credit scores. We take that finding as evidence that the new law effectively reduces exemptions, which in turn should reduce the ?demand? for bankruptcy and the resulting losses to suppliers of consumer credit. We expect the savings to suppliers will be shared with borrowers by way of lower credit card rates, although credit card spreads have not yet fallen. If cheaper credit is the upside ...
Staff Reports , Paper 279

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