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Working Paper
German unification: what have we learned from multi-country models?
This study reports on early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational-expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved to be a reasonably accurate guide to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on most key macroeconomic variables. In particular, unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the ...
Conference Paper
Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises
Conference Paper
Long-term tendencies in budget deficits and debt