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Working Paper
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating ...
Working Paper
The equity of social services provided to children and senior citizens
A consideration of the degree of equity in the U.S. government's treatment of children vis-a-vis adults, particularly the elderly. The authors show that given current policy, today's and tomorrow's children could end up paying as much as 70 percent of their lifetime income to the government, whereas the current elderly will pay only about 25 percent on average.
Working Paper
How much should Americans be saving for retirement?
How much should Americans save prior to retirement? Given Social Security's shaky financial condition, this is a critical question for baby boomers. A financial planning program-ESPlanner-is applied to data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to consider the amount that households approaching retirement should save.
Working Paper
Social Security's treatment of postwar Americans: how bad can it get?
The authors consider Social Security?s treatment of postwar Americans under alternative tax increases and benefit cuts that would help bring the system?s finances into present-value balance. The alternatives include immediate tax increases, eliminating the ceiling on taxable payroll, immediate and sustained benefit cuts, raising the system?s normal retirement age, switching from wage to price indexing in calculating benefits, and limiting the price indexing of benefits. The choices made among these and other alternatives have important consequences for which postwar generations (and which of ...
Working Paper
The impact of Social Security and other factors on the distribution of wealth
Auerbach et al. (1995), document the dramatic postwar increase in the annuitization of the resources of America?s elderly. Gokhale et al. (1996) suggest that greater annuitization may explain the significant postwar rise in the consumption propensity of the elderly out of remaining lifetime resources. Gokhale et al. (2000) consider the related point that increased annuitization will reduce bequests, especially for lower and middle-income households, whose entire earnings are taxed under Social Security. By differentially disenfranchising the children of the poor from receipt of inheritances, ...
Working Paper
The adequacy of life insurance: evidence from the health and retirement survey
This study examines life insurance adequacy among married American couples approaching retirement based on the 1992 Health and Retirement Survey with matched Social Security earnings histories. It evaluates each household's life insurance needs based on new financial planning software that embodies a life-cycle-planning model and covers a broad array of demographic, economic, and financial characteristics. A sizable minority of households are significantly underinsured. Almost one third of wives and over 10 percent of husbands would have suffered living-standard reductions greater than 20 ...
Working Paper
Life-cycle saving, limits on contributions to DC pension plans, and lifetime tax benefits
This paper analyzes questions related to defined contribution (DC) plans. For what types of households are statutory contribution limits likely to bind? How large is the lifetime tax benefit from participating in a DC plan and how does it vary with lifetime income? The authors find that contribution limits bind for households that begin their plan participation late in life or wish to retire early, single-earner households, those who are not borrowing-constrained, those with rapid rates of real wage growth, and those with high levels of earnings regardless of age. Setting contribution rates ...
Working Paper
The mismatch between life insurance holdings and financial vulnerabilities: evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey
Using data on older workers from the 1992 Health and Retirement Survey, along with an elaborate life-cycle planning model, the authors quantify the effect of each individual's death on the financial status of his or her survivors and the degree to which life insurance holdings moderate these consequences. The average change in living standard that would result from a spouse's death is small, both in absolute terms and relative to the decline that would occur without insurance. However, this average obscures a startling mismatch between insurance holdings and underlying vulnerabilities. For ...
Working Paper
Does participating in a 401(k) raise your lifetime taxes?
Contributing to 401(k)-type plans lowers current taxes, but does it lower lifetime taxes? If tax rates were independent of income and remained constant through time, the answer would be an unambiguous ?yes.? But tax rates may be higher when retirement account withdrawals occur, either because one moves into higher marginal tax brackets or because the government raises tax rates. Moreover, reducing tax brackets when young in exchange for higher tax brackets when old renders mortgage deductions less valuable. Most importantly, shifting taxable income from youth to old age can substantially ...
Working Paper
Who gets paid to save?
Thanks to recent changes in the tax law, people can contribute more to their tax-deductible and non-tax-deductible savings plans, including 401(k) and Roth IRAs. But should they? The myriad interacting provisions of the tax code make it difficult to predict who will gain from government savings incentives and by how much. This study examines how new legislation affects the lifetime tax gains (or losses) of low, middle, and high lifetime earners if they contribute the maximum to 401(k) accounts, traditional IRA accounts, and Roth IRA accounts. The study finds that the new legislation changes ...