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Working Paper
Anticipatory capital flows and the behaviour of the dollar
In this paper, I argue that the value of the dollar is influenced by the "state of long-term expectation" and that market expectations do not appear to embody a return to steady state. I suggest that the recent strength of investment in the United States reflects "animal spirits" and those investors appear to expect the investment boom to he sustained indefinitely. Finally, I show how an adverse shift in perceptions concerning the profitability of investment, by altering this state of expectations and thereby affecting international capital flows, conceivably could put upward pressure on ...
Discussion Paper
Futures markets and transaction costs
Working Paper
The macroeconomics of exchange rate shocks
Discussion Paper
Money and the state-preference model
Discussion Paper
Financial innovations and the demand for money
Working Paper
Simulating exchange rate shocks in the MPS and MCM models : an evaluation
In 1983 and 1984, the United States economy staged a vigorous economic recovery at a time when the value of the dollar was high and rising, leading to a steady deterioration of the trade balance. The strength of both the economy and the dollar exceeded most forecasts. This raises a question: are there expansionary effects from a currency appreciation that are overlooked when we focus solely on the trade balance? ; The purpose of this paper is to try and resolve the issue of whether or not an appreciation of the dollar is expansionary. To do so, I evaluate the simulation properties of the MPS ...
Discussion Paper
The banking crisis from a macroeconomic perspective
Discussion Paper
The economics of the 1975-1978 home price boom
Discussion Paper
Financial innovations and the monetary transmission mechanism