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Working Paper
Monetary Policy Implementation With an Ample Supply of Reserves
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper
Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability
This paper reviews the literature examining how the introduction of a retail CBDC would affect the banking sector and financial stability. A CBDC has the potential to improve welfare by reducing financial frictions, countering market power in deposit markets and enhancing the payment system. However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential adverse effects on financial stability. The recycling of the new CBDC liability through asset purchases or lending by the central bank plays ...
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence
We examine the macroeconomic effect of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) and forward guidance (FG) using a proxy structural VAR estimated on data through 2015, where the stance of the LSAP policy is measured using primary dealer expectations of the Federal Reserve's asset holdings. Monetary policy shocks are identified using instruments constructed from event study yield changes, and additional assumptions are employed to separately identify LSAP and FG shocks. We find that unexpected expansions in the Federal Reserve's asset holdings during the ZLB period between 2008 and 2015 had ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy implementation with an ample supply of reserves
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper
The Effects of CBDC on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet
We propose a parsimonious framework to understand how the issuance of central bank digital currency (CBDC) might affect the financial system, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and the implementation of monetary policy. We show that there is a wide range of outcomes on the financial system and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet that could reasonably occur following CBDC issuance. Our analysis highlights that the potential effects on the financial sector depend critically on how the Fed manages its balance sheet. In particular, CBDC could in principle put substantial upward pressure on the ...
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature
This paper provides an overview of the literature examining how the introduction of a CBDC would affect the banking sector, financial stability, and the implementation and transmission of monetary policy in a developed economy such as the United States. A CBDC has the potential to improve welfare by reducing financial frictions in deposit markets, by boosting financial inclusion, and by improving the transmission of monetary policy. However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential ...
Working Paper
Can the U.S. Interbank Market Be Revived?
Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve as well as new Basel III banking regulations have led to important changes in U.S. money markets. Most notably, the interbank market has essentially disappeared with the dramatic increase in excess reserves held by banks. We build a model in the tradition of Poole (1968) to study whether interbank market activity can be revived if the supply of excess reserves is decreased sufficiently. We show that it may not be possible to revive the market to precrisis volumes due to costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although the volume of ...
Working Paper
A Price-Differentiation Model of the Interbank Market and Its Application to a Financial Crisis
Rate curves for overnight loans between bank pairs, as functions of loan values, can be used to infer valuation of reserves by banks. The inferred valuation can be used to interpret shifts in rate curves between bank pairs, for example, in response to a financial crisis. This paper proposes a model of lending by a small bank to a large monopolistic bank to generate a tractable rate curve. An explicit calibration procedure for model parameters is developed and applied to a dataset from Mexico around the 2008 financial crisis. During the crisis, relatively small banks were lending to large ...
Working Paper
Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with External Instrument SVAR
We explore the use of external instrument SVAR to identify monetary policy shocks. We identify a forward guidance shock as the monetary shock component having zero instant impact on the policy rate. A contractionary forward guidance shock raises both future output and price level, stressing the relative importance of revealing policymakers' view on future output and price level over committing to a policy stance. We also decompose non-monetary structural shocks, and find that positive shocks to output and price level lead to monetary contraction. Since information on output and price level is ...
Working Paper
Measuring the Informativeness of Market Statistics
Market statistics can be viewed as noisy signals for true variables of interest. These signals are used by individual recipients of the statistics to imperfectly infer different variables of interest. This paper presents a framework under which the 'informativeness' of statistics is defined as their efficacy as the basis of such inference, and is quantified as expected distortion, a concept from information theory. The framework can be used to compare the informativeness of a set of statistics with that of another set or its theoretical limits. Also, the proposed informativeness measure can ...