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Conference Paper
Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
Historical experience suggests an important role for some deviation from the most restricted form of rational expectations in inflation dynamics, but also shows that other aspects of sluggish price adjustment, such as nominal rigidities, are important; and the available indicators of inflation expectations show that imperfect information regarding central bank intentions has been one source of inertia in inflation expectations.
Working Paper
Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound
While uncovered interest parity (UIP) fails unconditionally, UIP conditional on monetary policy actions remains a cornerstone of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy analysis. We posit that monetary policy actions are partially revealed by FOMC statements and propose a new identification strategy to uncover the degree to which such policy actions induce comovement in exchange rates and long-term interest rates consistent with uncovered interest parity. We reach three conclusions. First, there is evidence in favor of UIP at long horizons, conditional on monetary policy actions, for ...
Discussion Paper
Low Inflation in the United States : A Summary of Recent Research
Inflation in the United States has been running at low levels. Over the five years ending in December 2014, the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 8.8 percent (or 1.7 percent at an annual rate), was the lowest rate of price increase seen in the United States in half a century.
Discussion Paper
A (Bayesian) Update on Inflation and Inflation Persistence
Inflation in 2021 reached the highest level seen since the early 1980s. High inflation has raised questions regarding the speed with which inflation may return to the 2-percent range consistent with the Federal Reserve's inflation objective.
Working Paper
Staggered price setting and real rigidities
This paper emphasizes the notion that model features that contribute to endogenous price rigidity under staggered price setting lower the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output, and these same model features tend to generate equilibrium indeterminacy, or "sunspot fluctuations", under price flexibility. Using this insight, staggered price setting is shown to imply persistent output responses to monetary shocks for certain parameterizations of one- and two-sector models with small increasing returns or countercyclical markups, and other model features that would contribute to ...
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
In low-rate environments, policy strategies that involve holding rates ?lower for longer? (L4L) may mitigate the effects of the effective lower bound (ELB). However, these strategies work in part by managing the public?s expectations, which is not always realistic. Using the Fed?s large-scale macroeconometric model, we study the effectiveness of L4L policies when financial market participants are forward-looking but other agents are not. We find that the resulting limited ability to manage expectations reduces but does not eliminate the advantages of L4L policies. The best policies provide ...
Working Paper
Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version
This paper provides documentation for the large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy used in Edge, Kiley, and Laforte (2007). The model represents part of an ongoing research project (the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based--FRB/EDO--model project) in the Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies section of the Federal Reserve Board aimed at developing a DSGE model that can be used to address practical policy questions and the model documented here is the version that was current at the end of 2006. The paper discusses the model's specification, estimated ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy and the housing bubble
We examine the role of monetary policy in the housing bubble. Our review examines the setting of monetary policy in the middle of this decade, the impetus from monetary policy to the housing market, and other factors that may have contributed to the run-up, and subsequent collapse, in house prices.
Working Paper
Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?
Consumption growth is predictable, a basic violation of the permanent-income hypothesis. This paper examines three possible explanations: rule-of-thumb behavior, in which households allow consumption to track per-period income flows rather than permanent income; habit persistence; and non-separability in preferences over consumption and leisure. The data appear most consistent with non-separable preferences over consumption and leisure.
Working Paper
A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
This paper considers the "real-time" forecast performance of the Federal Reserve staff, time-series models, and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model--the Federal Reserve Board's new Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (Edo) model. We evaluate forecast performance using out-of-sample predictions from 1996 through 2005, thereby examining over 70 forecasts presented to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Our analysis builds on previous real-time forecasting exercises along two dimensions. First, we consider time-series models, a structural DSGE model that ...