Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 65.
(refine search)
Journal Article
Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between consumer sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive power for future changes in retail spending. Measures of consumer sentiment, however, contain additional explanatory power beyond the information available in other indicators. By restricting attention to fluctuations in retail sales that occur at the business cycle frequency, the authors ...
Journal Article
Saving for a rainy day?
Journal Article
Stop paying more for less: ways to boost productivity in higher education
College tuition has increased dramatically over the past decade, yet few think the quality of graduates has kept up. Decentralizing the administration and privatizing such things as housing and food service would boost productivity, as would ditching tenure and improving teaching.
Journal Article
A Federal Reserve System conference on research in applied microeconomics
This article summarizes papers presented at the System Applied Microeconomics Conference organized and hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on May 5-6, 2011. This annual conference brings together economists from the Federal Reserve District Banks across the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Board to present their latest economic research.
Working Paper
Institutions and government growth: a comparison of the 1890s and the 1930s
Statistics on the size and growth of the U.S. federal government, along with the rhetoric of President Franklin Roosevelt, seem to indicate that the Great Depression was the event that started the dramatic growth in government spending and intervention in the private sector that has continued to the present day. Through a comparison of the economic conditions of the 1890s and the 1930s, we argue that post-1930 government growth in the United States is not the direct result of the Great Depression, but rather is a result of institutional, legal, and social changes that began in the late 1800s.
Journal Article
On the size and growth of government
The size of the U.S. federal government, as well as state and local governments, increased dramatically during the 20th century. This paper reviews several theories of government size and growth that are dominant in the public choice and political science literature. The theories are divided into two categories: citizen-over-state theories and state-over-citizen theories. The relationship between the 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the timing of government growth is also presented. It is likely that portions of each theory can explain government size and growth, but the challenge ...
Journal Article
Bird flu pandemic: history warns of economic pain, though some might gain
If such a pandemic were to be anything like the Spanish Flu of the early 20th century, expect not only tens of millions of deaths worldwide but also a blow to the world economy in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Working Paper
Crime and arrests: deterrence or resource reallocation?
We use monthly time-series data for 20 large U.S. cities to test the deterrence hypothesis (arrests reduce crimes) and the resource reallocation hypothesis (arrests follow from an increase in crime). We find (1) weak support for the deterrence hypothesis, (2) much stronger support for the resource reallocation hypothesis, and (3) differences in city-level estimates suggest much heterogeneity in the crime and arrest relationship across regions.
Journal Article
Job cuts in manufacturing, transportation slow recovery
Journal Article
Taxing electronic commerce: boon or boondoggle?