Journal Article
Consumption taxes : macroeconomic effects and policy issues
Garner, C. Alan (2005-04)
Proposals for fundamental reform of the federal tax code are receiving increased attention in the business press and among economic analysts and policymakers. President Bush has identified tax reform as a top priority, calling for a tax system that is ?pro-growth, easy to understand, and fair to all.? Moreover, the President has appointed a commission to consider different approaches to tax reform. One approach might be to improve the current income-based federal tax code, perhaps by broadening the tax base and lowering income-tax rates. However, another approach might be to replace current ...
Economic Review , Volume 90 , Issue Q II , Pages 5-29

Journal Article
The effect of U.S. defense cuts on the standard of living
Garner, C. Alan (1991-01)
Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Jan , Pages 33-47

Journal Article
Offshoring in the service sector : economic impact and policy issues
Garner, C. Alan (2004-07)
The United States continues to run an international trade surplus in services, but business stories frequently appear about service-sector jobs moving offshore. Many Americans are particularly concerned about the loss of skilled, well-paid jobs in such fields as computer programming and accounting. These jobs seemed relatively secure at a time when many manufacturing jobs were being lost to import competition. Similarly, telephone call centers, once viewed as an economic development opportunity in some areas, increasingly are moving to low-wage countries, such as India and the Philippines. ...
Economic Review , Volume 89 , Issue Q III , Pages 5-37

Journal Article
Can measures of the consumer debt burden reliably predict an economic slowdown?
Garner, C. Alan (1996-10)
Some analysts and business executives are becoming concerned that recent increases in the consumer debt burden may foreshadow an economic slowdown. Higher debt increases the risk that a household may experience financial distress in the event of an adverse economic shock, such as the loss of a job or large uninsured medical expenses. As the risk of financial distress rises, households may become less willing to spend on consumer goods, particularly big ticket items such as automobiles and home computers, which in turn would hurt economic growth.> Different measures of the consumer debt burden ...
Economic Review , Volume 81 , Issue Q IV , Pages 63-76

Journal Article
Consumer confidence after September 11
Garner, C. Alan (2002-04)
The terrorist attacks on September 11 dealt a serious blow to the U.S. economy. The damage included the tragic loss of human life, massive property destruction, and disruptions to the travel and shipping industries. But immediately after the attacks, many observers also worried about the possible harm to business and consumer confidence. Although the effects on business confidence are hard to measure, regular surveys of households make it easier to assess the effects on consumer confidence. These surveys show that consumer confidence was surprisingly resilient.> Faced with this resilience, ...
Economic Review , Volume 87 , Issue Q II

Working Paper
Market indicators for monetary policy
Garner, C. Alan (1989)
Research Working Paper , Paper 89-08

Journal Article
An inflation report for 1999
Garner, C. Alan (2000-01)
The U.S. economy turned in an exceptional performance in 1999, combining strong real output growth with moderate inflation. Real GDP, a broad measure of the nation's output of goods and services, grew 4.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. Employment also rose solidly, and the civilian unemployment rate declined to the lowest level in about 30 years. Although rising world oil prices caused consumer prices to increase faster than in 1998, core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy prices, were about the same or slightly lower. Moreover, survey ...
Economic Review , Volume 85 , Issue Q I , Pages 5-20

Journal Article
Will the real price of housing drop sharply in the 1990s?
Garner, C. Alan (1992-01)
Economic Review , Volume 77 , Issue Q I , Pages 55-68

Journal Article
How useful are leading indicators of inflation?
Garner, C. Alan (1995-04)
Many economists expect inflation to rise in 1995. These expectations are based on various approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on the standard economic theory that inflation rises when slack is eliminated from the economy and production exceeds capacity constraints. According to this view, measures of economic slack such as unemployment and capacity utilization provide useful information about the inflation outlook. But the relationship between slack and inflation is complicated and subject to variable lags.> Uncomfortable with this complex relationship, some analysts ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q II , Pages 5-18

Journal Article
Recent developments in nonresidential construction activity
Garner, C. Alan (1986-04)
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Apr , Pages 3-18