Journal Article
Inventories and the business cycle: an overview
Fitzgerald, Terry J. (1997-07)
A review of research on the relationship between inventory investment and business cycle fluctuations, focusing on the developments of the last 15 years. A central issue in the literature, the relative importance of demand and supply shocks as sources of fluctuations, continues to be debated.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 11-22

Journal Article
Business cycles and long-term growth: lessons from Minnesota
Fitzgerald, Terry J. (2003-06)
A look at state economic performance offers a broader message.
The Region , Volume 17 , Issue Jun , Pages 22-25, 58-61

Discussion Paper
The magnitude of the speculative motive for holding inventories in a real business cycle model
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Christiano, Lawrence J. (1989)
The motive to hold inventories purely in the hope of profiting from a price increase is called the speculative motive. This motive has received considerable attention in the literature. However, existing studies do not have a clear implication for how large it is quantitatively. This paper incorporates the speculative motive for holding inventories into an otherwise standard real business cycle model and finds that empirically plausible parameterizations of the model result in an average inventory stock to output ratio that is virtually zero. For this reason, we conclude that the quantitative ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 10

Working Paper
The Band pass filter
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Christiano, Lawrence J. (1999)
The "ideal" band-pass filter can be used to isolate the component of a time series that lies within a particular band of frequencies, but applying this filter requires a data set of infinite length. In practice, some sort of approximation is needed. Using projections, the authors derive approximations that are optimal when the time-series representations underlying the raw data have a unit root, or are stationary about a trend.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9906

Journal Article
From market failure to market-based solution: policy lessons from clean air legislation
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Pelz, Eduard A. (2001-08)
How can the United States balance its need for increased energy production with national and global environmental concerns? This Commentary argues that competitive markets can be used in unique and surprising ways to address environmental needs without placing an excessive burden on citizens.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Has Middle America stagnated?
Fitzgerald, Terry J. (2007-09)
A closer look at hourly wages.
The Region , Volume 21 , Issue Sep , Pages 14-17, 56-59

Discussion Paper
Is there a stable Phillips Curve after all?
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Holtemeyer, Brian (2013)
The Phillips curve refers to a negative (or inverse) relationship between unemployment and inflation in an economy?when unemployment is high, inflation tends to be low, and vice versa. This inflation-unemployment link has been observed in many countries during many times, most famously by William Phillips in 1958 looking at historical data for the United Kingdom. If this relationship is stable (or ?structural?)?meaning that it holds regardless of changes in the economic environment, including policy adjustment?then policymakers might be able to trade off increases in inflation to achieve ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 13-6

Journal Article
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP
Miller, Preston J.; Fitzgerald, Terry J. (1989-10)
This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.
Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 27-31

Journal Article
An introduction to the search theory of unemployment
Fitzgerald, Terry J. (1998-07)
The author presents a model of job search that focuses on an unemployed person's decision to accept an offered job or to continue looking for a new one.
Economic Review , Volume 34 , Issue Q III , Pages 2-15

Journal Article
Price stability: is a tough central bank enough?
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Christiano, Lawrence J. (2000-08)
What is the best way to achieve price stability? Conventional wisdom says that a tough, independent central bank is all that is necessary. However, a new view?the fiscal theory of the price level?argues that an appropriate fiscal policy is also required, no matter how tough the central bank may be. The choice of the fiscal theory versus the conventional view has significant implications for the way central banks do business.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug