Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 73.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Some not so unpleasant monetarist arithmetic
This paper analyzes the quantitative significance of Sargent and Wallace's (1981) "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" in a model that is parameterized to correspond with U.S. data. The major result is that the monetarist arithmetic is not overly unpleasant and that the nominal side of the economy is not very sensitive to whether money growth does or does not respond to government debt.
Working Paper
Behavior of the real rate of interest over the business cycle
In this paper we document real rate behavior. We do this by looking across a wide variety of constructed real rate series. These series are obtained by using a number of different methodologies for estimating expected inflation, using several different price series, and looking over different time periods. The evidence suggests that over the entire sample period, real rate increases follow output increases and the real rate is positively correlated with contemporaneous output. These results, however, are sensitive to the price series used. That is, we find evidence of specification ...
Working Paper
Interest rate versus money supply instruments: on the implementation of Markov-perfect optimal monetary policy
Currently there is a growing literature exploring the features of optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models under both commitment and discretion. With respect to time consistent policy, the literature focuses on solving for allocations. Recently, however, King and Wolman (2004) have examined implementation issues involved under time consistent policy when the monetary authority chooses nominal money balances. Surprisingly, they find that equilibria are no longer unique under a money stock regime. Indeed, there exist multiple steady states. Dotsey and Hornstein find that King and ...
Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that ...
Journal Article
How the Fed affects the economy: a look at systematic monetary policy
Until recently, when assessing the economic effects of monetary policy, economists have emphasized the role of unanticipated changes in policy. But are these policy shocks likely to be the most important influence on the economy? Mike Dotsey believes not. It seems more likely that the Fed's systematic behavior plays a bigger part in what happens in the U.S. economy. In "How the Fed Affects the Economy: A Look at Systematic Monetary Policy," Dotsey explains the ways in which systematic policy influences economic activity
Working Paper
Inflation uncertainty and growth in a simple monetary model
This paper analyzes the effects of inflation variability on economic growth in a model where money is introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint. In this setting, we find that inflation adversely affects long-run growth, even when the cash-in-advance constraint applies only to consumption. At the same time, we find that inflation and growth are positively related in the short-run. In addition, variability tends to increase average growth through a precautionary savings motive. Since inflation and inflation variability tend to be highly correlated, this latter effect attenuates the negative ...
Journal Article
Controversy over the federal budget deficit : a theoretical perspective
Recently, the Office of Management and Budget projected that the fiscal 1985 federal budget deficit would exceed $200 billion and that out-year reductions would be gradual at best. These prospects have engendered a debate concerning the economic effects of government deficits and the attendant high level of government borrowing. In this article, Michael Dotsey investigates this topic theoretically using alternative macroeconomic models. Dotsey first examines a standard Keynesian model and finds that its prediction of a depressing future effect of government borrowing stems from its ...
Working Paper
Interest rate rules and nominal determinacy
Monetary economists have recently begun a serious study of money supply rules that allow the Fed to adjustably peg the nominal interest rate under rational expectations. These rules vary from procedures that produce stationary nominal magnitudes to those that generate nonstationarities in nominal variables. Our paper investigates the determinacy properties of three representative interest rate rules. ; We use Blanchard and Kahn's solution technique as a starting point. It doesn't directly apply, so we first modify their procedure. We then narrow the range of solutions by considering the ARMA ...
Journal Article
Monetary policy and operating procedures in New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand operates in a highly deregulated financial environment which lacks any interest rate regulation or reserve requirements. Yet the Reserve Bank has been able to implement effective monetary policy through a quantity-based procedure. This article analyzes the operating procedures of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the relatively small financial costs imposed by these procedures.
Working Paper
Monetary control under alternative operating procedures
This paper provides a detailed examination of various money stock control procedures in a rational expectations environment. The analysis investigates the relative efficiency of controlling monetary aggregate through the use of an interest rate instrument or through various reserve measures under both lagged and contemporaneous reserve requirements. A major result is that borrowed reserve targeting is not necessarily equivalent to a noisy interest rate instrument. Further, it is possible that borrowed reserves can represent a more efficient control procedure than in interest rate instrument. ...