Working Paper
Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation
Novak, Jason A.; Crone, Theodore M.; Khettry, N. Neil K.; Mester, Loretta J. (2011)
Policymakers tend to focus on core inflation measures because they are thought to be better predictors of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors find little support for this assumption. While some measures of core inflation are less volatile than total inflation, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. The relative forecasting performance of models using core inflation and those using only total inflation depends on the inflation measure and time horizon of the forecast. Unlike previous studies, the authors provide a measure ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-24

Working Paper
Measuring housing services inflation
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Voith, Richard; Crone, Theodore M. (1999)
Recent papers have questioned the accuracy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' methodology for measuring implicit rents for owner-occupied housing. The authors propose cross-checking the BLS statistics by using data on owner-occupied and rental housing from the American Housing Survey. A hedonic approach that explicitly calculates capitalization rates appears to be a feasible one for developing a methodologically consistent measure of the rental cost of owner-occupied housing.
Working Papers , Paper 99-9

Journal Article
The Philadelphia story: a new forecasting model
Crone, Theodore M.; McLaughlin, Michael P. (1999-09)
Several years ago, the Philadelphia Fed developed a small forecasting model for each of the three states in the Third Federal Reserve DistrictCPennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This article introduces a similar model that forecasts major economic variables for the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the city of Philadelphia. Read this article and find out what the model predicts for the metro area and the city
Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 13-23

Working Paper
Natural vacancy rates and the persistence of shocks in U.S. office markets
Voith, Richard; Crone, Theodore M. (1988)
Working Papers , Paper 88-4

Working Paper
A Bayesian VAR forecasting model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area
Crone, Theodore M.; McLaughlin, Michael P. (1999)
Vector-autoregression (VAR) forecast models have been developed for many state economies, including the three states in the Third Federal Reserve District--Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This paper extends that work by developing a Bayesian VAR forecast model for the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the city of Philadelphia.
Working Papers , Paper 99-7

Journal Article
Making money in the housing market: is there a sure-fire scheme?
Crone, Theodore M. (1995-03)
Business Review , Issue Mar , Pages 19-31

Journal Article
Cleaning the air with the invisible hand
Crone, Theodore M.; DeFina, Robert H. (1983-11)
Business Review , Issue Nov/Dec , Pages 11-19

Working Paper
Vector-autoregression forecast models for the Third District states
Delaney, Sherry; Mills, Leonard O.; Crone, Theodore M. (1992)
Working Papers , Paper 92-19

Journal Article
Office vacancy rates: how should we interpret them?
Crone, Theodore M. (1989-05)
Business Review , Issue May , Pages 3-12

Journal Article
House prices and the quality of public schools: what are we buying?
Crone, Theodore M. (1998-09)
Do house prices reflect the quality of the local public schools? To what extent do school district policies determine how well students perform? How do such factors as neighborhood, family, and peers affect school quality and house prices? Ted Crone examines these questions, and others, to determine whether house prices do, indeed, include a school premium.
Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-14