Journal Article
Stock-market-based measures of sectoral shocks and the unemployment rate
Chehal, Puneet; Loungani, Prakash; Trehan, Bharat (2010)
Downturns in the construction and finance sectors played a significant role in the recent recession. A stock-market-based measure that captures sectoral shocks shows that these disturbances are important for explaining long-duration unemployment. This is consistent with the intuition that sectoral shocks cause workers to engage in time-consuming moves across industries in their searches for work. It also suggests that it will take a while before the more than 1.8 million unemployed construction workers and close to a half million unemployed finance and insurance workers find jobs.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Talking about tomorrow’s monetary policy today
Trehan, Bharat; Chehal, Puneet (2009)
As part of their efforts to promote economic recovery, some central banks have announced they will not raise policy rates for specified time periods. Other central banks have not been as explicit, though they have provided guidance. A comparison of the effects of the Bank of Canada's conditional promise to hold rates steady through the second quarter of 2010 with the Federal Reserve's less explicit guidance finds no evidence that market participants make distinctions between these statements.
FRBSF Economic Letter