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Journal Article
Private money in our past, present, and future
The government isn?t the only entity allowed to issue money. Private citizens and businesses can too, and throughout U.S. history, they often have. But private money?as such money is called?isn?t issued much these days. What lessons have our experiences with private money taught us, and what do they imply for our money today and in the future?
Journal Article
Resolving the national bank note paradox
During the 1882_1914 period, U.S. national banks could issue circulating notes backed by specified government securities. Earlier attempts to explain yields on those securities by costs of note issue discovered a paradox: yields were too high. We point out two previously ignored sources of costs: idle notes and note redemptions that were highly variable, thereby exacerbating the problem of managing reserves. We present data on idle notes and estimate, from partial data on redemptions, the uncertainty due to redemptions. We also present a semiannual time series of an upper bound on the average ...
Working Paper
The National Banking System: the national bank note puzzle
The era of the National Banking System (1863?1913) has been a puzzling one for monetary theorists and economic historians for well over a century. The puzzles associated with this period take various forms. Despite calculations of high profit rates on note issue for certain periods of the era, national banks never fully utilized their note-issuing powers. Relatedly, the behavior of interest rates during the period is also puzzling given the regime of bank note issuance put in place by the National Bank Acts. On the surface, it appears that an arbitrage condition is broken. The observed ...
Report
Interest rates under the U.S. national banking system
According to previous studies, the demand-liability feature of national bank notes did not present a problem for note-issuing banks because the nonbank public treated notes and other currency as perfect substitutes. However, that view, when combined with nonbindingness of the collateral restriction against note issue, itself an implication of the fact that some eligible collateral was not used for that purpose, implies that the safe short-term interest rate is pegged at the tax rate on note circulation. Since evidence on short-term interest rates is inconsistent with such a peg, that view ...
Working Paper
National bank notes and silver certificates
From 1883 to 1892, the circulation of national bank notes in the United States fell nearly 50 percent. Previous studies have attributed this to supply-side factors that led to a decline in the profitability of note issue during this period. This paper provides an alternative explanation. The decline in note issue was, in large part, demand-driven. The presence of a competing currency with superior features caused the public to substitute away from national bank notes.
Working Paper
Resolving the National Banking System note-issue puzzle
Under the National Banking System, 1863-1914, national banks that deposited sufficient collateral could issue notes provided they paid a tax on notes in circulation: 1 percent per year before 1900 and 1/2 percent thereafter. Because note issue was far below the allowed maximum, an arbitrage argument predicts that short-term nominal interest rates should have been bounded above by the tax rate. They were not. That is the note-issue puzzle. Our resolution takes the form of a model in which notes play a role, but in which the profitability of note issue is not tied to anything that resembles a ...
Working Paper
Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years?
The last decade has witnessed a great deal of theoretical and empirical research on the relationships between inflation, financial market performance, and economic growth. This paper provides a survey of that literature and presents new cross-country empirical results on this topic. We find that inflation is negatively associated with banking industry size, real returns on financial assets, and bank profitability. We also discover a positive relationship between asset return volatility and inflation.
Journal Article
Who is that guy on the $10 bill?
Alexander Hamilton is the least known and most misunderstood of our nation's founders. His contributions include creating a monetary standard, establishing our banking system, and ensuring the young nation's creditworthiness. This Economic Commentary explains how much of our financial strength we owe to Hamilton.
Journal Article
Inflation, banking, and economic growth
The world has seen a dramatic decline in inflation rates in recent decades, but concerns about inflation may still be warranted, especially in some countries. Evidence is mounting that inflation is harmful to economic activity even at fairly modest rates of inflation because of the way it adversely affects the banking sector and investment.
Journal Article
Open and operating: providing liquidity to avoid a crisis
The terrorist attacks of 9/11 triggered a staggering increase in demand for U.S. dollars all over the world, a demand that threatened to disrupt the American payments system but was met swiftly and successfully by the Federal Reserve. Earlier in the nation?s history, the system didn?t respond so well to severe shocks. This Commentary describes financial crises that occurred during one period in which the country had no central bank.