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Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M. (2023-08-08)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of expenditure, revenue, budget balance and debt rules when governments are discretionary and prone to overspending. The optimal prescription is either an expenditure ceiling or a combination of revenue and primary deficit ceilings. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with constraints looser than optimal or escape clauses during adverse times. When imposed on their own, revenue ceilings are only mildly ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-026

Working Paper
Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Rubinton, Hannah; Pugsley, Benjamin (2021-09-23)
We use an incomplete markets economy to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses of the US “Volcker” disinflation. In the long run households prefer low inflation, but disinflation requires a transition period and a redistribution from net nominal borrowers to net nominal savers. Welfare costs may be significant for households with nominal liabilities. When calibrated to match the micro and macro moments of the early 1980s high-inflation environment and the actual changes in the nominal interest rate and inflation during the Volcker disinflation, nearly 60 percent of all ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-021

Working Paper
Shadow Bank Runs
Nosal, Ed; Andolfatto, David (2020-06-08)
Short-term debt is commonly used to fund illiquid assets. A conventional view asserts that such arrangements are run-prone in part because redemptions must be processed on a first-come, first-served basis. This sequential service protocol, however, appears absent in the wholesale banking sector---and yet, shadow banks appear vulnerable to runs. We explain how banking arrangements that fund fixed-cost operations using short-term debt can be run-prone even in the absence of sequential service. Interventions designed to eliminate run risk may or may not improve depositor welfare. We describe how ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-012

Working Paper
Durable good inventories and the volatility of production: explaining the less volatile U.S. economy
Wen, Yi (2005)
This paper provides a simple dynamic optimization model of durable goods inventories. Closed-form solutions are derived in a general equilibrium environment with imperfect information and serially correlated shocks. The model is then applied to scrutinize some popular conjectures regarding the causes of the volatility reduction of GDP since 1984.
Working Papers , Paper 2005-047

Working Paper
Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?
Famiglietti, Matthew; Ivanova, Yuliya; Neely, Christopher J.; Weller, Paul A. (2020-06-12)
Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, Carhart’s 4-factor model, the C-CAPM, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) carry-trade factor model, and models including macroeconomic factors, and foreign exchange volatility, skewness and liquidity, to explain these technical trading returns. No model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-033

Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade
Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2024-09-26)
This paper investigates the impact of cross-border patenting on the margins of international trade using disaggregated data on international patenting and trade flows. We develop a theoretical framework of trade and firms' patenting decisions that motivates our empirical analysis. The main results reveal that cross-border patenting has a larger effect on the extensive margin of trade compared to the intensive margin. This finding suggests that firms tend to seek patent protection in international markets prior to entering those markets with new products, rather than with their existing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-028

Working Paper
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic
Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-05)
This paper studies the role of international trade of essential goods during a pandemic. We consider a multi-country, multi-sector model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level. Each country produces domestic varieties of both types of goods using capital and labor subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and all varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We study the role of international trade of essential goods in mitigating or ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies
Daruich, Diego (2018-10-11)
To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a standard general-equilibrium (GE) heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model. After estimating it using US data, we show that an RCT evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children's education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields twice as large welfare gains, even after considering GE and taxation effects. Key to this difference is that investing in a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-29

Working Paper
Political allocation of U.S. agriculture disaster payments in the 1990s
Marsh, Thomas L.; Marshall, Maria I.; Garrett, Thomas A. (2004)
Legislation passed during the 1990s attempted to move U.S. agriculture disaster relief to a more market oriented process. The failure of this legislation has been attributed to the political system behind agricultural disaster relief. This paper explores the impact of political influence on the allocation of U.S. direct agriculture disaster payments. The results reveal that disaster payments are not based solely on need, but are higher in those states represented by public officials key to the allocation of relief. The effectiveness of legislation aimed at promoting more efficient disaster ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-005

Working Paper
Cities and the growth of wages among young workers: evidence from the NLSY
Wheeler, Christopher H. (2005)
Human capital-based theories of cities suggest that large, economically diverse urban agglomerations increase worker productivity by increasing the rate at which individuals acquire skills. One largely unexplored implication of this theory is that workers in big cities should see faster growth in their earnings over time than comparable workers in smaller markets. This paper examines this implication using data on a sample of young male workers drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort. The results suggest that earnings growth does tend to be faster in large, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-055

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