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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.

I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-015

Working Paper
Some tables of historical U.S. currency and monetary aggregates data

This paper includes revised and extended versions of tables of historical .S. currency and monetary aggregates data compiled for the forthcoming work: Susan B. Carter et.al., editors, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to the Present, Millennial Edition. Three volumes. Cambridge University Press, forthcoming. These tables, in part, update and extend tables that previously appeared in the 1976 Bicentennial Edition of Historical Statistics, with new descriptive notes.
Working Papers , Paper 2003-006

Working Paper
Further evidence on choosing an operating target for monetary policy

Working Papers , Paper 1981-011

Working Paper
The P-star model and Austrian prices

In the P-star model the price level is determined by the money stock per unit of potential output and the long-run equilibrium level of the velocity of money. This article applies this model to Austria. Problems in identifying permanent shocks to potential output and/or velocity lead to the rejection of such models of the price level, but their first-difference version is not so suspect. While evidence is found of a long-run relationship between Austria inflation and money growth, even the first-difference version of the P-star model is rejected for Austria. Since Austria is a small economy, ...
Working Papers , Paper 1992-001

Working Paper
International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation

In this paper we provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward-looking alternative. The international evidence consist of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last 40 years and for the period following major monetary policy shifts in 1979-80. Our results suggest that the parameters in the optimizing IS equations are more empirically stable than those of the backward-looking alternative. The use of dynamic general equilibrium modelling in empirical work does ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-020

Working Paper
Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets

Allen and Karjalainen (1999) used genetic programming to develop optimal ex ante trading rules for the S&P 500 index. They found no evidence that the returns to these rules were higher than buy-and-hold returns but some evidence that the rules had predictive ability. This comment investigates the risk-adjusted usefulness of such rules and more fully characterizes their predictive content. These results extend Allen and Karjalainen's (1999) conclusion by showing that although the rules' relative performance improves, there is no evidence that the rules significantly outperform the buy-and-hold ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-015

Working Paper
The formation of expectations: some evidence from weekly money supply forecasts

Working Papers , Paper 1983-005

Working Paper
Comparing time-series and survey forecasts of weekly changes in money: a methodological note

Working Papers , Paper 1983-013

Working Paper
New evidence on returns to scale and product mix among U.S. commercial banks

Numerous studies have found that banks exhaust scale economies at low levels of output, but most are based on the estimation of parametric cost functions which misrepresent bank cost. Here we avoid specification error by using nonparametric kernal regression techniques. We modify measures of scale and product mix economies introduced by Berger et al. (1987) to accommodate the nonparametric estimation approach, and estimate robust confidence intervals to assess the statistical significance of returns to scale. We find that banks experience increasing returns to scale up to approximately $500 ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-003

Working Paper
The real-balance effect with resource-using money: a capital-theoretic interpretation

Working Papers , Paper 1983-010

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