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Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-07-25)
We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC but increased during COVID-19. In the cross-section, leverage was the primary determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of real and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity shocks. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
Conley, Timothy G.; Dupor, Bill; Li, Rong; Zhou, Yijiang (2023-07-24)
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-017

Working Paper
Channel systems: Why is there a positive spread?
Marchesiani, Alessandro; Berentsen, Aleksander; Waller, Christopher J. (2010)
An increasing number of central banks implement monetary policy via two standing facilities: a lending facility and a deposit facility. In this paper we show that it is socially optimal to implement a non-zero interest rate spread. We prove this result in a dynamic general equilibrium model where market participants have heterogeneous liquidity needs and where the central bank requires government bonds as collateral. We also calibrate the model and discuss the behavior of the money market rate and the volumes traded at the ECB?s deposit and lending facilities in response to the recent ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-049

Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.
Yoo, Peter S. (1996)
I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-015

Working Paper
The Sufficient Statistic Approach: Predicting the Top of the Laffer Curve
Huggett, Mark; Badel, Alejandro (2015-11-10)
We provide a formula for the tax rate at the top of the Laffer curve as a function of three elasticities. Our formula applies to static models and to steady states of dynamic models. One of the elasticities that enters our formula has been estimated in the elasticity of taxable income literature. We apply standard empirical methods from this literature to data produced by reforming the tax system in a model economy. We find that these standard methods underestimate the relevant elasticity in models with endogenous human capital accumulation.
Working Papers , Paper 2015-38

Working Paper
On the substitutability between foreign aid and international credit
Lahiri, Sajal; Younas, Javed; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2012)
We examine the effect of relaxing a binding borrowing constraint for a recipient country on theamount of foreign aid it receives. We do so by developing a two-country, two-period trade-theoretic model. The relaxation of the borrowing constraint reduces the flow of foreign aid, suggesting that the donor views developing nations' access to international credit markets as a substitute for foreign aid.
Working Papers , Paper 2012-043

Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill; Kudlyak, Marianna (2018-03-16)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.29. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-4

Working Paper
Liquidity and Investment in General Equilibrium
Caramp, Nicolas; Kozlowski, Julian; Teeple, Keisuke (2023-05-02)
This paper studies the implications of trading frictions in financial markets for firms' investment and dividend choices, and their aggregate consequences. When equity shares trade in frictional asset markets, the firm's problem is time-inconsistent, and it is as if it faces quasi-hyperbolic discounting. The transmission of trading frictions to the real economy crucially depends on the firms' ability to commit. In a calibrated economy without commitment, larger trading frictions imply lower capital and production. In contrast, if firms can commit, trading frictions affect asset prices but ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-022

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah; Soques, Daniel (2022-11-23)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help-wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four groupings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Working Paper
Some tables of historical U.S. currency and monetary aggregates data
Anderson, Richard G. (2003)
This paper includes revised and extended versions of tables of historical .S. currency and monetary aggregates data compiled for the forthcoming work: Susan B. Carter et.al., editors, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to the Present, Millennial Edition. Three volumes. Cambridge University Press, forthcoming. These tables, in part, update and extend tables that previously appeared in the 1976 Bicentennial Edition of Historical Statistics, with new descriptive notes.
Working Papers , Paper 2003-006

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