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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
The quantitative importance of openness in development

This paper deals with a classic development question: how can the process of economic development ? transition from stagnation in a traditional technology to industrialization and prosperity with a modern technology ? be accelerated? Lewis (1954) and Rostow (1956) argue that the pace of industrialization is limited by the rate of capital formation which in turn is limited by the savings rate of workers close to subsistence. We argue that access to capital goods in the world market can be quantitatively important in speeding up the transition. We develop a parsimonious open-economy model where ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-025

Working Paper
The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse

New vehicle sales in the U.S. fell nearly 40 percent during the last recession, causing significant job losses and unprecedented government interventions in the auto industry. This paper explores two potential explanations for this decline: falling home values and falling households? income expectations. First, we establish that declining home values explain only a small portion of the observed reduction in vehicle sales. Using a county-level panel from the episode, we ?nd: (1) A one-dollar fall in home values reduced new vehicle spending by about 0.9 cents; and (2) Falling home values ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-19

Working Paper
Foreign direct investment in China: a spatial econometric study

Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regions of China have received the bulk of FDI inflows to the country. In this paper, we use province-level data to explain the pattern of FDI location across China. We build upon previous research, introducing new potential determinants, using more recent FDI data, and incorporating spatial econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-001

Working Paper
Learning in a large square economy

Learning is introduced into a sequence of large square endowment economies indexed by n, in which agents live n periods. Young agents need to forecast n - 1 periods ahead in these models in order to make consumption decisions, and thus these models constitute multi-step ahead systems. Real time learning is introduced via least squares. The systems studied in this paper are sometimes locally convergent when n = 2,3 but are never locally convergent when . Because the economies studied are analogous, nonconvergence can be attributed solely to the multi-step ahead nature of the forecast problem ...
Working Papers , Paper 1994-013

Working Paper
Aggregate shocks and labor market fluctuations

This paper evaluates the dynamic response of worker flows, job flows, and vacancies to aggregate shocks in a structural vector autoregression. We identify demand, monetary, and technology shocks by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of output, inflation, the interest rate, and the relative price of investment. No restrictions are placed on the responses of job and worker flows variables. We find that both investment-specific and neutral technology shocks generate responses to job and worker flows variables that are qualitatively similar to those induced by monetary and demand shocks. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2006-004

Working Paper
Estimates of the link between variable money growth and GNP: a supplement to Mascaro and Meltzer

Mascaro and Meltzer have implied, but not tested, that increased uncertainty about monetary policy will reduce real income. This proposition is tested directly by adding a. Kalman filter estimate of monetary uncertainty to a St. Louis-type GNP equation. The results indicate that -increased uncertainty about monetary policy has permanent negative effects on both the level and growth rate of GNP.
Working Papers , Paper 1984-008

Working Paper
Supply and demand shifts of shorts before Fed announcements during QE1–QE3

Cohen, Diether, and Malloy (Journal of Finance, 2007), find that shifts in the demand curve predict negative stock returns. We use their approach to examine changes in supply and demand at the time of FOMC announcements. We show that shifts in the demand for borrowing Treasuries and agencies predict quantitative easing. A reduction in the quantity demanded at all points along the demand curve predicts expansionary quantitative easing announcements.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-051

Working Paper
Binary Conditional Forecasts

While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR [Dueker (2005)], whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-29

Working Paper
Discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve Chairmen

This paper investigates the discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve chairmen: Martin, Burns, Miller, Volcker and Greenspan. Both in terms of the reasons given for making discount rate changes and the frequency of discount rate changes, the discount rate policies of Martin and Greenspan were very similar, as were those of Burns and Volcker. The discount rate policy of Chairman Miller differed from either of these groups. Measured by the money market's response to discount rate changes, the discount rate policy of Burns and Volcker was the most effective and Miller's the least effective. ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-001

Working Paper
Frictionless technology diffusion: the case of tractors

Empirical evidence suggests that there is a long lag between the time a new technology is introduced and the time at which it is widely adopted. The conventional wisdom is that this fact is inconsistent with the predictions of the frictionless neoclassical model. In this paper we study the specific case of the diffusion of the tractor in American agriculture between 1910 and 1960. There are three important driving forces: changes in quality, wage rates and prices of substitutes such as horses and mules. We demonstrate that once these exogenous forces are taken into account, the standard ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-022




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