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Working Paper
Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks
Andolfatto, David (2018-10-05)
I investigate the theoretical impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on a monopolistic banking sector. The framework combines the Diamond (1965) model of government debt with the Klein (1971) and Monti (1972) model of banking. There are two main results. First, the introduction of interest-bearing CBDC increases financial inclusion, diminishing the demand for physical cash. Second, while interest-bearing CBDC reduces monopoly profit, it need not disintermediate banks in any way. CBDC may, in fact, lead to an expansion of bank deposits if CBDC competition compels banks to raise their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-026

Working Paper
Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets
Neely, Christopher J. (2001)
Allen and Karjalainen (1999) used genetic programming to develop optimal ex ante trading rules for the S&P 500 index. They found no evidence that the returns to these rules were higher than buy-and-hold returns but some evidence that the rules had predictive ability. This comment investigates the risk-adjusted usefulness of such rules and more fully characterizes their predictive content. These results extend Allen and Karjalainen's (1999) conclusion by showing that although the rules' relative performance improves, there is no evidence that the rules significantly outperform the buy-and-hold ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-015

Working Paper
Defining the adjusted monetary base in an era of financial change
Rasche, Robert H.; Anderson, Richard G. (1996)
This paper examines how recent changes in the U.S. financial system have affected the appropriate definition, construction and interpretation of the St. Louis adjusted monetary base and adjusted reserves. Since 1990, reductions in statutory reserve requirements have significantly reduced the importance of the requirements as a constraint on the deposit and lending behavior of banks and other depository institutions. During the same period, depositories' interbank payments activities have come to determine most, if not all of their, demand for Federal Reserve Bank deposits. Our analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-014

Working Paper
Institutions and government growth: a comparison of the 1890s and the 1930s
Rhine, Russell M.; Garrett, Thomas A. (2008)
Statistics on the size and growth of the U.S. federal government, along with the rhetoric of President Franklin Roosevelt, seem to indicate that the Great Depression was the event that started the dramatic growth in government spending and intervention in the private sector that has continued to the present day. Through a comparison of the economic conditions of the 1890s and the 1930s, we argue that post-1930 government growth in the United States is not the direct result of the Great Depression, but rather is a result of institutional, legal, and social changes that began in the late 1800s.
Working Papers , Paper 2008-020

Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2021-02)
I study the effects of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model that matches the path of the US unemployment rate in 2020 to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that the pandemic shock changes the ranking of policy multipliers. Unemployment benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Working Paper
A look at the ASA-NBER inflation forecasts: tests of rationality and formation
Hafer, Rik (1985)
Working Papers , Paper 1985-003

Working Paper
Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel (2022-02-17)
Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence,we argue that three quarters of this increase reflects adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to surveydata predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays will be WFH. These model predictions are consistent with survey evidence on workers' own expectations about ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-008

Working Paper
Optimal money demand in a heterogeneous-agent cash-in-advance economy
Wen, Yi (2010)
Heterogeneity matters. This point is illustrated in a heterogeneous-agent, cash-in-advance economy where money serves both as a medium of exchange and as a store of value (as in Lucas, 1980). It is shown that heterogeneity can lead to dramatically different implications of monetary policies from those under the representative-agent assumption, including (i) the velocity of money is not constant but highly volatile, as in the data; (ii) lump-sum transitory money injections have expansionary effects on aggregate output despite flexible prices; and (iii) the welfare cost of anticipated inflation ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-014

Working Paper
Price equalization does not imply free trade
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha; Sposi, Michael (2012)
In this paper we show that price equalization alone is not sufficient to establish that there are no barriers to international trade. There are many barrier combinations that deliver price equalization, but each combination implies a different volume of trade. Therefore, in order to make statements about trade barriers it is necessary to know the trade flows. We demonstrate this first in a simple two-country model. We then extend the result to a multi-country model with two sectors. We show that for the case of capital goods trade, barriers have to be large in order to be consistent with the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-010

Working Paper
Designing Unemployment Insurance for Developing Countries
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Cirelli, Fernando (2020-09-10)
The high incidence of informality in the labor markets of middle-income economies challenges the provision of unemployment protection. We show that, despite informational frictions, introducing an unemployment insurance savings account (UISA) system may provide substantial benefits. This system improves welfare by providing insurance to the unemployed and creating incentives to work in the formal sector. The optimal scheme generates a reduction in unemployment (from 4 to 3 percent), an increase in formality (from 68 to 72 percent), and a rise in total output (by 4 percent). Overall, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-006

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