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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  Series:Review 

Journal Article
Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings

The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Sep , Pages 545-568

Journal Article
The effect of mortgage refinancing on money demand and the monetary aggregates

Review , Issue Jul , Pages 49-63

Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?

The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jan , Pages 25-40

Journal Article
Changes in financial markets and their effects on agriculture

Review , Issue Oct , Pages 13-19

Journal Article
Lagged and contemporaneous reserve accounting: an alternative view

Review , Volume 65 , Issue Nov , Pages 26-33

Journal Article
The effects of health and wealth shocks on retirement decisions

Both health status and net worth can affect retirement decisions. In some cases, early retirement may be precipitated by a shock to an individual?s health and/or economic status. The authors examine how health and wealth shocks affect retirement decisions. They use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate a first-differences model of health and wealth shocks on retirement over the course of the 2000s in the United States. Their results suggest that acute health shocks are associated with labor market exits for older American men but not women. These results appear particularly ...
Review , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Accounting for changes in manufactured exports at the state level: 1976-86

Review , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Foreign direct investment, productivity, and country growth: an overview

The authors review the empirical literature that studies the relationship between foreign direct investment, productivity, and growth using aggregate data and focus on two questions: Is there evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and national growth? And does the output of the "multinational sectors" exhibit higher labor productivity? The authors also briefly discuss how the microeconomic evidence and a number of aggregation and composition problems might help explain the ambiguous results in this literature.
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Mar

Journal Article
The relationship between the daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects

The phrase "liquidity effect" was introduced by Milton Friedman (1969) to describe the first of three effects on interest rates caused by an exogenous change in the money supply. The lack of empirical support for the liquidity effect using monthly and quarterly monetary and reserve aggregates data led Hamilton (1997) to suggest that more convincing evidence of the liquidity effect could be obtained with daily data - the daily liquidity effect. This paper investigates the implications of the daily liquidity effect for Friedman's liquidity effect using a more comprehensive model of the ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue Jan , Pages 73-88

Journal Article
Real interest rates: what accounts for their recent rise?

Review , Volume 66 , Issue Dec , Pages 18-29




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