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Journal Article
The future of biofuel (panel discussion)
Journal Article
School accountability and student performance
Journal Article
Editor's introduction
Journal Article
Commentary on \\"state tax revenue growth and volatility\\"
Journal Article
Local price variation and labor supply behavior
In standard economic theory, labor supply decisions depend on the complete set of prices: wages and the prices of relevant consumption goods. Nonetheless, most theoretical and empirical work in labor supply studies ignores prices other than wages. We address the question of whether the common practice of ignoring local price variation in labor supply studies is as innocuous as generally assumed. We describe a simple model to demonstrate that the effects of wage and nonlabor income on labor supply typically differ by location. In particular, we show that the derivative of the labor supply with ...
Journal Article
Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states
The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to ...
Journal Article
How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?
Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state's projected fiscal-year-end balances will be ...
Journal Article
Mandatory and affordable health insurance
This paper asserts that America's health care system is broken and cannot be repaired with timid half-measures. It suggests that we need both universal coverage and a more efficient delivery system and that these are not competing objectives: Each is necessary to make the other possible. It further states that if we do not make health care more affordable and our delivery system more efficient and sustainable, a majority of Americans will be uninsured in short order. And the persistence of millions of uninsured impairs the efficiency we need to make health care and insurance affordable for ...
Journal Article
Roles for evolving markets, policies, and technology improvements in U.S. corn ethanol industry development
This article reviews changes in markets, technologies, and policies that affect corn ethanol profit-ability and industry expansion. Historically, the corn ethanol industry was stimulated by high petro-fuel prices, successful corn and processing technology improvements, and government incentives, such as a blenders' tax credit and mandated markets defined by the leaded fuel ban and reformulated fuel. Presently, the corn ethanol industry has expanded slightly beyond the point of a normal capital return, which is defined by limits on corn resource availability and ethanol marketing ...