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Journal Article
School accountability and student performance - discussion
Journal Article
How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?
Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state's projected fiscal-year-end balances will be ...
Journal Article
The state of state and local government finance
This paper provides an overview of the state-local government sector, a review of the short-run impact of the 2007-09 recession on state and local governments, and a brief summary of key long-run challenges state and local governments will encounter in the next decade. State and local governments in aggregate represent about one-seventh of the U.S. economy, with education and welfare (mostly Medicaid) accounting for more than half. These governments currently face nearly unprecedented fiscal turmoil as a result of the recent recession. Even after the economy recovers, states and localities ...
Journal Article
Local price variation and labor supply behavior
In standard economic theory, labor supply decisions depend on the complete set of prices: wages and the prices of relevant consumption goods. Nonetheless, most theoretical and empirical work in labor supply studies ignores prices other than wages. We address the question of whether the common practice of ignoring local price variation in labor supply studies is as innocuous as generally assumed. We describe a simple model to demonstrate that the effects of wage and nonlabor income on labor supply typically differ by location. In particular, we show that the derivative of the labor supply with ...
Journal Article
Urban decentralization and income inequality: is sprawl associated with rising income segregation across neighborhoods?
Existing research shows an inverse relationship between urban density and the degree of income inequality within metropolitan areas; this information suggests that as urban areas spread out, they become increasingly segregated by income. This paper examines this hypothesis using data covering more than 165,000 block groups within 359 U.S. metropolitan areas for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. The findings indicate that income inequality-defined by the variance of the log household income distribution-does indeed rise significantly as urban density declines. This increase, however, is ...
Journal Article
State tax revenue growth and volatility
Macroeconomic conditions and tax structures jointly determine the growth and volatility of state tax revenues. Since a variety of economic conditions exist among states, government policymakers should carefully anticipate and consider the possible impacts of proposed tax reform and revenue enhancements on the long-term growth and volatility of their unique tax revenue portfolios. In the short run, states generally cannot alter the volatility and growth rates of their economies. They can, however, change the composition of their tax portfolios to minimize the effects of the business cycle on ...
Journal Article
Alternative education finance strategies
Journal Article
The economic impact of a smoking ban in Columbia, Missouri: an analysis of sales tax data for the first year
In January 2007, an ordinance took effect in Columbia, Missouri, banning smoking in all bars, restaurants, and workplaces. This paper analyzes data for sales tax collections at eating and drinking establishments from January 2001 through December 2007, including the first twelve months of the smoking ban. The analysis accounts for trends, seasonality, general business conditions, and weather. The findings suggest that the smoking ban has been associated with statistically significant losses in sales tax revenues at Columbia's bars and restaurants, with an average decline of approximately 3 to ...