Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states
The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to ...
School accountability and student performance - discussion
School accountability and student performance - commentary
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Mandatory and affordable health insurance
This paper asserts that America's health care system is broken and cannot be repaired with timid half-measures. It suggests that we need both universal coverage and a more efficient delivery system and that these are not competing objectives: Each is necessary to make the other possible. It further states that if we do not make health care more affordable and our delivery system more efficient and sustainable, a majority of Americans will be uninsured in short order. And the persistence of millions of uninsured impairs the efficiency we need to make health care and insurance affordable for ...
The U.S. ethanol industry
Ethanol is vital to achieving greater American energy independence. It is today's only viable and available fuel that can be substituted for gasoline. Unlike oil, ethanol is renewable-it will never run out. As science moves from making ethanol from corn to producing it from corn cobs and other plant materials, ethanol will continue to be a sustainable and effective energy solution for the world. America's dependence on foreign oil causes enormous problems for Americans every day-raising the prices on everything from gas to groceries and sending money and jobs overseas. This article summarizes ...