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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Working Paper
Capital, finance, and trade collapse

This paper proposes a model of international trade with capital accumulation and financial intermediation. This is achieved by embedding the Melitz (2003) model into an incomplete-markets neoclassical framework with an endogenous credit market. The model preserves the analytical tractability of the original Melitz model despite non-trivial distribution of firms? net worth and capital stocks. We use the model to examine the differential effects of financial and non-financial shocks on aggregate output and international trade flows. The model predicts that trade volume declines far more sharply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-003

Working Paper
Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? and does it matter?

Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the market for options on foreign exchange futures. No solution considered?including a model of priced volatility risk?explains the conditional bias found in implied volatility. Further, while implied volatility fails to subsume econometric forecasts in encompassing regressions, these forecasts do not significantly improve delta-hedging performance. Thus this paper deepens the implied volatility puzzle by ...
Working Papers , Paper 2002-017

Working Paper
The changing empirical definition of money: some estimates from a model of the demand for money substitutes

Working Papers , Paper 1986-006

Working Paper
The distribution of wealth, 1983-1992: secular growth, cyclical stability

This article describes the changes in the concentration of wealth among U.S. households between 1983 and 1992, a period which nearly coincides with the most recent business cycle. The distribution of wealth has received popular attention recently, based on reports that it became markedly more unequal during the economic expansion of the 1980s. New data for 1992 indicates that the distribution was about the same in 1992 as in 1983, or for that matter as in 1962. A modest, insignificant increase in concentration between 1983 and 1989 was completely reversed by 1992. While the distribution was ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-012

Working Paper
Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach

Using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules, we find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates, over the period 1981-1995. Further, when the dollar/deutschemark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets, there is a significant improvement in performance in all cases, except for the deutschemark/yen. Betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk. ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-006

Working Paper
By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle

This paper explores the possibility that economic fluctuations may be largely demand-driven. It is shown that the stylized open-economy business cycle regularities documented by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) and Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992) can be explained by demand shocks alone even in a standard general equilibrium model. Frictions such as market incompleteness, increasing returns to scale, and sticky prices do not appear to be the preconditions for resolving these long-standing puzzles.
Working Papers , Paper 2005-043

Working Paper
Individual and Aggregate Constrained Efficient Intertemporal Wedges in Dynamic Mirrleesian Economies

Assuming a neoclassical production technology, this paper characterizes constrained efficient intertemporal wedges for the macro aggregate as well as the micro individual allocation of dynamic Mirrleesian economies. We first construct ?Pareto-Negishi weights? from the multipliers on a sequence of temporary incentive constraints. For a fairly general stochastic process of idiosyncratic productivity shocks, we show that the evolution of the Pareto-Negishi weight associated with agents? consumption is a nonnegative martingale. This powerful property enables us to deliver three contributions to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-43

Working Paper
Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models

A pair of simple modifications-in the forecast error and forecast error variance-to the Kalman filter recursions makes possible the filtering of models in which one or more state variables is truncated normal and latent. Such recursions are broadly applicable to macroeconometric models, such as vector autoregressions and estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, that have one or more probit-type equation.
Working Papers , Paper 2005-057

Working Paper
Reconstructing the great recession

This paper evaluates the role of the construction sector in accounting for the performance of the U.S. economy before, during and after the Great Recession. We use input-output analysis to evaluate its linkages with the rest of the economy and measure the transmission of its demand shocks to the overall economy. Such effects are quantified by means of a dynamic multi-sector model parameterized to reproduce the boom-bust dynamics of employment in construction during 2000-13. The model suggests that the interlinkages account for a large share of the actual changes in aggregate employment and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-006

Working Paper
On the risk-return relation in international stock markets

We investigate the risk-return relation in international stock markets using realized variance constructed from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) daily stock price indices. In contrast with CAPM, realized variance by itself provides negligible information about future excess stock market returns; however, we uncover a positive and significant risk-return tradeoff in many countries after controlling for the (U.S.) consumption-wealth ratio. U.S. realized variance is also significantly related to future international stock market returns; more importantly, it always subsumes the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-012



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