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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 

Working Paper
Is monetary policy becoming less effective?

This paper estimates the amount by which the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing real output for a given change in interest rates has declined due to the increased size of the federal government debt.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-05

Working Paper
A structural model of real aggregate demand

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 84-03

Working Paper
A macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 89-01

Working Paper
Financial implications of regional trade accords

We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as "credibility-enhancing" mechanisms towards treatment of foreign investment, inducing additional foreign capital inflows. We then examine the issues of trade and financial creation and diversion under the accord. The presence of sovereign risk changes the tradeoffs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for welfare-increasing trade-diverting regional trade accords.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-01

Working Paper
Asymmetry in the bivariate relationship between output and interest rates

This paper investigates whether an asymmetry is present in the Granger-causal relationship between output and a set of interest rates and their spreads, across expansionary and contractionary business cycle phases in post 1950 U.S. Non-structural VAR models of monthly industrial production and three interest rates and four spreads are estimated for expansion and contraction samples. This study finds asymmetry in the bivariate relationship between the output and the financial variables across the two samples. Most of the interest rates and the spreads that were observed to Granger-cause output ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-13

Working Paper
Central bank independence and the costs of disinflation in the EC

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-04

Working Paper
The demand for money: where do we stand?

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 88-02

Working Paper
A tabular survey of selected regional econometric models

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 11

Working Paper
Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?

No. In many VARs, monetary policy shocks are identified with the least squares residuals from a regression of the federal funds rate on an assortment of variables. Such regressions appear to be structurally fragile and are at odds with other evidence on the nature of the Fed's reaction function; furthermore, the residuals from these regressions have little correlation with funds rate shocks that are derived from forward-looking financial markets.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 96-05

Working Paper
Presidential popularity, presidential policies

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 92-01

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Working Paper 174 items

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Hutchison, Michael M. 13 items

Judd, John P. 12 items

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