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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 

Working Paper
Fiscal constraints and incentives with monetary coordination: implications for Europe 1992

This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change in a monetary union such as that presently under discussion for the European Community. The effect of this institutional change on the incentives facing fiscal policymakers in their budgetary decisions also is investigated. The framework of analysis is a two-country, two-period intertemporal framework with maximizing private and public sector behavior. We find that the range of feasible divergence in the present discounted value of fiscal spending is reduced in a monetary union, although ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 90-04

Working Paper
A state-of-processing model of inflation

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 107

Working Paper
Crowding out and the wealth role of government debt

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 85-02

Working Paper
Measuring monetary policy

Extending the approach of Bernanke and Blinder (1992), Strongin (1992), and Christano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (1994a, 1994b), we develop and apply a VAR-based methodology for measuring the stance of monetary policy. More specifically, we develop a "demi-structural" VAR approach, which extracts information about monetary policy from data on bank reserves and the federal funds rate but leaves the relationships among the macroeconomic variables in the system unrestricted. The methodology can be used to compare and evaluate existing indicators of monetary policy and also to develop an ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-09

Working Paper
Borrowing restrictions and wealth constraints: implications for aggregate consumption

Recent empirical studies have found that consumption is more sensitive to current income than simple versions of the life-cycle, permanent income hypothesis would predict. The present paper studies a model in which the fraction of consumers exhibiting excess sensitivity is endogenously determined. The presence of income uncertainty and restrictions on borrowing are shown to generate a distribution of consumption across individuals which is consistent with the recent empirical evidence. The aggregate fraction of consumers facing a binding borrowing constraint is shown to exhibit positive ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 86-06

Working Paper
Real money substitutes

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 17

Working Paper
On demographic adjustments to estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a note

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 88-01

Working Paper
Location and the growth of nations

Does a country's (long-term) growth depend upon what happens in countries that are nearby? Such linkages could occur for a variety of reasons, including demand and technology spillovers. We present a series of tests to determine the existence of such relationships and the forms that they might take. We find that a country's growth rate is closely related to that of nearby countries, and show that this correlation reflects more that the existence of common shocks. Trade alone does not appear responsible for these linkages either. In addition, we find that being near a large market ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 97-02

Working Paper
Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly industrial production and the spread between the 6-month commercial paper and the federal funds rates is used as an example to illustrate forecast exercise. This paper's method does not require a forecaster to make an exact ex-ante determination of turning points in the output series which is being forecasted. ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 93-12

Working Paper
A macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 89-01




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Hutchison, Michael M. 13 items

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Spiegel, Mark M. 11 items

Walsh, Carl E. 10 items

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