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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Proceedings 

Conference Paper
Exchange rate policy, international capital mobility and monetary policy instruments


Conference Paper
Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992

Proceedings , Issue Sep

Conference Paper
Ocean mining in the Pacific Basin: stimulus and response

Proceedings , Issue 1 , Pages 177-244

Conference Paper
Mineral trade and investment patterns in the Pacific Area

Proceedings , Issue 1 , Pages 69-134

Conference Paper
Why money announcements move interest rates: an answer from the foreign exchange market

Proceedings , Issue 6 , Pages 1-36

Conference Paper
Predicting the effects of Federal Reserve policy in a sticky price model: an analytical approach

In this paper, I characterize equilibria for a sticky-price model in which Federal Reserve policy is an interest-rate rule similar to that described in Taylor (1993). For standard preferences and technologies used in the literature, the model predicts that the nominal interest rate is negatively serially correlated, and that shocks to interest rates imply a potentially large but short-lived response in output. Shocks to government spending and technology lead to persistent changes in output but the percentage change in output is predicted to be smaller than the percentage changes in spending ...
Proceedings , Issue Jun

Conference Paper
Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the 'hollow middle'?

Following the 1997?98 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved toward either floating or fixed exchange rate systems, superficially consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the ?hollow middle? hypothesis. But some observers have claimed that, despite the changes in their de jure exchange rate regimes, the crisis countries? policies have de facto been very similar in the post- and pre-crisis periods. This paper analyzes the evidence and concludes that, except for Malaysia, which adopted a hard peg and imposed capital controls, the other crisis countries are ...
Proceedings , Issue Sep

Conference Paper
Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries

Recent studies by Gal and Gertler (1999), Gal, Gertler, and Lpez-Salido (GGL) (2001a, 2001b), and Sbordone (1998, 2001) have argued that the New Keynesian Phillips curve (Calvo pricing model) is empirically valid, provided that real marginal cost rather than detrended output is used as the variable driving inflation. GGL (2001a) conclude that real marginal cost is not closely related to the output gap, and that models for monetary policy therefore need to include labor market rigidities. An alternative interpretation is that marginal cost and the output gap are closely related, but that the ...
Proceedings , Issue Mar

Conference Paper
Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?

Data obtained from special questions on the Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. We find that expected risk and return are strongly influenced by economic prospects. When investors believe macroeconomic conditions are more expansionary, they tend to expect both higher returns and lower volatility. This implies that household Sharpe ratios are procyclical, which is inconsistent with the view that stock market returns should compensate investors for exposure to macroeconomic risks. The finding of procyclical ...
Proceedings , Issue Jan




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