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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Proceedings 

Conference Paper
The term structure of interest rates in the FRB-MIT-PENN model: reality or illusion?

Proceedings , Issue 1 , Pages 67-96

Conference Paper
Measuring trends in leisure

In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 6-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 4-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours). This increase in leisure corresponds to roughly an additional 5 to 10 weeks of vacation per year, assuming a 40-hour work week. ...
Proceedings

Conference Paper
The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models

This paper demonstrates that long-term forward interest rates in the U.S. often react considerably to surprises in macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy announcements. This behavior is in contrast to the prediction of many macroeconomic models, in which the long-run properties of the economy are assumed to be time-invariant and perfectly known by all economic agents: Under those assumptions, the shocks we consider would have only transitory effects on short-term interest rates, and hence would not generate large responses in forward rates. Our empirical findings suggest that private ...
Proceedings , Issue Mar

Conference Paper
Exchange rate management: a partial review

Proceedings

Conference Paper
The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980: what has Congress wrought?

Proceedings , Issue 4 , Pages 199-236

Conference Paper
The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises

Proceedings , Issue Sep

Conference Paper
The economics of private equity funds

Proceedings , Issue Oct

Conference Paper
The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility

More than 80 percent of the decline in the variance of aggregate output since 1984 is accounted for by a decline in the covariance (and correlation) of output among industries that hold inventories. Using a HAVAR macro model (Fratantoni and Schuh 2003) with only two sectors, manufacturing and trade, we show that this decline in comovement ? and thus much of the Great Moderation in aggregate and industry-level output ? is explained largely by changes in the structural relationships between sectors? sales and inventory investment, rather than by ?good luck.? A small part of the Moderation is ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov

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