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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:FRBSF Economic Letter 

Journal Article
Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data

History suggests that elevated values of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio may indicate an overvalued stock market. A valuation model that uses a small set of economic variables can help account for movements in the CAPE ratio over the past six decades. One of these variables is a macroeconomic uncertainty index. Comparing the model’s prediction for the second and third quarters of 2020 to the 2008–2009 period suggests that investors have reacted to macroeconomic uncertainty very differently during the COVID-19 outbreak than they did during the financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 31 , Pages 01-06

Journal Article
Is the Federal Reserve Contributing to Economic Inequality?

Not every American gets the same chance at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We have to acknowledge and confront this reality—as individuals, as institutions, and as a nation. The Fed can help create more inclusive economic success by finding full employment experientially. But achieving true equality will require commitment from all of us. The following reflects remarks delivered in a virtual presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the University of California, Irvine, on October 13.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 32 , Pages 07

Journal Article
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to essentially zero. It took further measures to support the functioning of financial markets and the flow of credit. Nevertheless, the economic downturn is putting downward pressure on inflation, which had already been running below the Fed’s 2% target for several years. This raises additional concerns that inflation expectations could decline and push inflation down further, ultimately hampering economic activity. A monetary policy framework based on average-inflation targeting could help address these ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 01

Journal Article
Emerging Bond Markets and COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico

The pandemic caused by the coronavirus is depressing economic activity and severely straining government budgets globally. Without international support, the ability of emerging economies to weather this crisis will depend crucially on access to and the cost of borrowing in domestic government bond markets. Analyzing bond flows and risk premiums for Mexican government bonds during the pandemic gives some insights into a major emerging economy’s experience. Mexican risk premiums have increased more than 1 percentage point above predicted levels, pointing to tighter funding conditions for the ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 23 , Pages 01-05

Journal Article
Would an inflation target help anchor U.S. inflation expectations?

Since the October 2005 nomination of Ben Bernanke to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, there has been increasing speculation in the financial press that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might soon adopt an explicit numerical objective for inflation. However, skeptics of inflation targeting have maintained that this would constrain the FOMC and might provide little benefit in return?after all, it has been argued, haven't inflation expectations in the U.S. been well anchored since the early to mid-1990s? ; In this Economic Letter, I discuss recent research on whether ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The product life cycle and the electronic components industry

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Corporate liquidity

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Dollars and deficits

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Accountability in practice: recent monetary policy in New Zealand

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Financial globalization and monetary policy

My remarks concern monetary policymakers' opportunities and challenges in the face of the growing volume of international capital movements. The topic is currently of particular interest for two reasons: First, this year marks the tenth anniversary of the devastating Asian financial crisis, in which issues associated with disruptive capital flows were paramount. Second, world financial markets are currently experiencing substantial turbulence; although it is due primarily to the "subprime" mortgage crisis taking place in the United States, international financial linkages have also played a ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

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