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Journal Article
Reducing poverty via minimum wages, alternatives
Neumark, David (2015)
Setting a higher minimum wage seems like a natural way to help lift families out of poverty. However, minimum wages target individual workers with low wages, rather than families with low incomes. As a result, a large share of the higher income from minimum wages flows to higher-income families. Other policies that directly address low family income, such as the earned income tax credit, are more effective at reducing poverty.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Western banks and derivatives
Laderman, Elizabeth (1995)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The West's role in agricultural production
Schmidt, Ronald H. (1988)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Doubt in Detroit
Burke, William (1973)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Cottage industry
Walsh, Joan (1976)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Rising price of energy
Furlong, Frederick T.; Daly, Mary C. (2001)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Housing markets and demographics
Krainer, John (2005)
Fifteen years ago, like today, there were concerns that house prices might collapse. One big difference between then and now, however, is the basis for those concerns. Today, people are worried that a house price bubble (if one exists) might burst, while 15 years ago, people were worried about demographic effects, specifically, the inevitable aging of the baby boomers. ; The earlier concern was sparked by a paper by Mankiw and Weil (1989), in which the authors famously predicted that between 1987 and 2007, real house prices could fall by 3% per year. In fact, real house prices grew by an ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Foreign financial institutions in Japan
Glick, Reuven (1987)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Jobless recovery redux?
Hobijn, Bart; Kwok, Joyce; Daly, Mary C. (2009)
Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years
Matthes, Christian; Barnichon, Regis (2017)
The natural rate of unemployment, or u-star, is used by economists and policymakers to help assess the overall state of the labor market. However, the natural rate is not directly observable and must be estimated. A new statistical approach estimates the natural rate over the past 100 years. Results suggest the natural rate has been remarkably stable over history, hovering between 4.5 and 5.5% for long periods, even during the Great Depression. Recent readings on the unemployment rate have been running slightly below the natural rate estimate.
FRBSF Economic Letter

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