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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:FRBSF Economic Letter 

Journal Article
Deeper deficit doldrums

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Diagnosing recessions

The beginnings and ends of recessions are officially dated about 12 months after the fact. A common rule of thumb declares recessions as two quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth, but this is very inaccurate. A better option is to apply medical diagnostic evaluation methods to the business conditions indexes of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks, which suggests the recent recession ended sometime between June and August 2009.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Food, fuel and families

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices

From Bitcoin?s inception in 2009 through mid-2017, its price remained under $4,000. In the second half of 2017, it climbed dramatically to nearly $20,000, but descended rapidly starting in mid-December. The peak price coincided with the introduction of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. Rather, it is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Gauging aggregate credit market conditions

The Federal Reserve and other central banks have responded to the current financial crisis by taking a range of aggressive policy actions aimed at reviving credit markets. In particular, the Fed has pushed the federal funds rate, its key policy instrument, to historically low levels. Research suggests that overall credit conditions since late 2007 have remained tighter than would have been expected based on historical experience and that this tightness may be partly offsetting the Fed?s policy actions.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Perspective on California

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Dow-Jones futures

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
U.S. monetary policy: an introduction - Part 4: How does the Fed decide the appropriate setting for the policy instrument?

This is the last of four issues devoted to our updated and expanded Q&A on monetary policy: (1) "How is the Federal Reserve structured?" and "What are the tools of U.S. monetary policy?" (2) "What are the goals of U.S. monetary policy?" (3) "How does monetary policy affect the U.S. economy?" and (4) "How does the Fed decide the appropriate setting for the policy instrument?" The revised text will appear in a pamphlet soon.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
S&L accounting

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Money, credit, and M2

FRBSF Economic Letter

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