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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Economic Review 

Journal Article
Bank regulation and the public interest

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 55-71

Journal Article
Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

This paper exploits an observed business cycle asymmetry, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between output growth and an index for financial market conditions across expansionary and contractionary periods, to forecast monthly growth in industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly industrial production and the spread between the yield on 10-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate is used as an example. This paper's method does not require a forecaster to make an exact exante determination of turning points in the output series being forecasted. A ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Financial intermediation, monetary policy, and equilibrium business cycles

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 19-28

Journal Article
The regulation of bank entry

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 5-13

Journal Article
Interest rate volatility and alternative monetary control procedure

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 46-63

Journal Article
The Eurodollar market and U. S. residents

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 43-59

Journal Article
Do supervisory rating standards change over time?

Supervisory BOPEC ratings were assigned to bank holding companies (BHCs) during the years 1987 to 2004 as a summary of their overall performance and level of supervisory concern. In this article, we examine the stability of the BOPEC ratings assigned over that period. We model supervisory ratings using balance sheet variables, and our analysis suggests that BOPEC rating standards varied over time. Supervisors seem to have applied more stringent rating standards from 1989 to 1992, a period marked by a recession and a large degree of distress in the banking sector. Rating standards then eased ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 30-49

Journal Article
Factor utilization and margins for adjusting output: evidence from manufacturing plants

This paper describes patterns of factor utilization and output adjustment at the plant level for a wide range of manufacturing industries. We explain why manufacturing plants may differ quite a bit in how they accomplish output adjustments, depending on shutdown cost aspects of technology. Assembly-type operations with low shutdown costs would primarily vary the work period of the plant, whereas continuous processing plants with large shutdown costs would adjust instantaneous flow rates of production. For larger output increases, a lengthening of the work period by assemblers would entail ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Problems of resource utilization

Economic Review , Issue Win , Pages 5-6

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