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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Series:Economic Review 

Journal Article
Challenges to monetary policy

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
Investment ratios and economic growth rates

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 9-20

Journal Article
The response of real output and inflation to monetary policy

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 45-70

Journal Article
Index numbers and the measurement of real GDP

The measures of real GDP and inflation are aggregates of many individual prices and quantities. These variables are measured using fixed-weight indexes, which can give a misleading impression of price and output changes in a particular year if the structures of output and relative prices are different from those in the base year. This measurement problem adds to the uncertainties facing policymakers. ; These ambiguities result from the definitions of output and inflation in use. This article describes alternative measures of growth and inflation that have a stronger theoretical basis and ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries

I review the case for pegging the exchange rate by surveying the recent theoretical literature on the choice of exchange rate regimes. This literature suggests that by enhancing the transparency or controllability of monetary policy, pegging may be more effective in lowering inflation expectations than other targets (such as money growth). However, under certain conditions a peg may be vulnerable to shifts in expectations. A peg also may require greater fiscal restraint by limiting the availability of inflation tax revenue; however, given certain economic distortions, policymakers may find ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 30-49

Journal Article
Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin

This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (detrended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent GDP in all countries. However, the strained sector becomes more important and as the elasticity of ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
The persistence of bank profits: what the stock market implies

This paper examines the speed with which abnormal economic profits vanish in the U.S. banking industry. A model is developed to infer expected speeds of profit adjustment from stock market and financial accounting data, deriving the rate of adjustment that is most consistent with observed cross-sectional relationships between bank stock prices and profitability. The model allows for the possibility that reported accounting income may be a biased and noisy signal of economic profit. Estimation is performed using generalized nonlinear least squares on a pooled series of cross sections. The ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Consumer experiences with credit insurance: some new evidence

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 5-20

Journal Article
Off balance sheet risk in banking: the case of standby letters of credit

Economic Review , Issue Win , Pages 19-29

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