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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Journal Article
Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data

History suggests that elevated values of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio may indicate an overvalued stock market. A valuation model that uses a small set of economic variables can help account for movements in the CAPE ratio over the past six decades. One of these variables is a macroeconomic uncertainty index. Comparing the model’s prediction for the second and third quarters of 2020 to the 2008–2009 period suggests that investors have reacted to macroeconomic uncertainty very differently during the COVID-19 outbreak than they did during the financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 31 , Pages 01-06

Working Paper
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB

The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. This has renewed interest in monetary policies that embed makeup strategies, such as price-level or average-inflation targeting. This paper examines the properties of average-inflation targeting in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model in which a fraction of firms have adaptive expectations. We examine the optimal degree of history dependence under average-inflation targeting and find it to be relatively short for business cycle shocks of standard ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-21

Journal Article
Is the Federal Reserve Contributing to Economic Inequality?

Not every American gets the same chance at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We have to acknowledge and confront this reality—as individuals, as institutions, and as a nation. The Fed can help create more inclusive economic success by finding full employment experientially. But achieving true equality will require commitment from all of us. The following reflects remarks delivered in a virtual presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the University of California, Irvine, on October 13.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 32 , Pages 07

Speech
Is the Federal Reserve Contributing to Economic Inequality?

Speech

Journal Article
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to essentially zero. It took further measures to support the functioning of financial markets and the flow of credit. Nevertheless, the economic downturn is putting downward pressure on inflation, which had already been running below the Fed’s 2% target for several years. This raises additional concerns that inflation expectations could decline and push inflation down further, ultimately hampering economic activity. A monetary policy framework based on average-inflation targeting could help address these ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 01

Journal Article
What are Banks Doing to Address the Impacts of COVID-19 on LMI Communities? Early Approaches to Addressing the Crisis

Lessons from history show that those who are most disadvantaged before a disaster are likely to be most vulnerable during a disaster as well as on the road to recovery. As the novel coronavirus continues to spread, we are witnessing heavy impacts on low- and moderate-income communities as small businesses shutter, workers are laid off, and more and more households find themselves in unexpected financial circumstances. Low-income individuals and households are more vulnerable to illness and potential economic disruption for a variety of reasons, including lower availability of paid sick leave ...
Community Development Research Brief , Issue 05 , Pages 01

Journal Article
The Mental Health Implications of COVID-19 on Low-Income Communities and Communities of Color

Shelter-in-place and social distancing measures have been critical for “flattening the curve” and managing the spread of COVID-19, but the sudden shock to our economic and social lives is raising concerns about the need to “flatten the second curve” of mental and behavioral health issues. A new report in JAMA Internal Medicine warns, “In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, it appears likely that there will be substantial increases in anxiety and depression, substance use, loneliness, and domestic violence; and with schools closed, there is a very real possibility of an epidemic of ...
Community Development Research Brief , Issue 02 , Pages 01

Journal Article
Impacts of COVID-19 on Nonprofits in the Western United States

Nonprofit organizations play an important role in the response to COVID-19, but the crisis is straining their ability to serve communities. This report summarizes data from a Federal Reserve survey to assess the impact of the pandemic on nonprofit respondents and the communities they serve in the Western United States.
Community Development Research Brief , Issue 03 , Pages 01-08

Speech
College is Opportunity

2020 NASPA Virtual Conferences on Student Success in Higher Educationby Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 29, 2020
Speech

Speech
Ambassadors of Hope

Virtual Presentation at The Preuss School Graduation by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Thursday June 18, 2020
Speech

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