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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Working Paper
The 1980s divergence in per capita personal incomes: what does it tell us?

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-11

Journal Article
Big lessons from small rural communities : working to reduce poverty long term

Community Investments , Volume 19 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
Financing rural innovation with community development venture capital: models, options and obstacles

Growing local companies is essential to the economic prosperity for many rural regions and residents. Rural economies, however, rarely attract traditional venture capital. Given the important role that patient capital plays in entrepreneurial development, the future economic vitality of rural communities rests, at least in part, on their ability to access such capital. Community development venture capital (CDVC) is a particularly adept model for overcoming the structural obstacles that rural geographies present for venture capital investors. Rubin explores some of the obstacles this model ...
Community Development Innovation Review , Issue 3 , Pages 15-27

Journal Article
New uses for new macro derivatives

Economic forecasters often look to the performance of futures markets to help predict such economic developments as movements in the price of oil and other commodities. In addition, relatively new financial market instruments, like TIPS, help policymakers get a handle on the public's inflation expectations. ; In the last few years, derivatives markets involving bets on future economic events have emerged. In October 2002, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank joined forces to form a market in what they call "Economic Derivatives." More recently, other U.S.-based markets have been created for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Future recession risks

An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The mortgage meltdown, financial markets, and the economy

This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on October 30, 2008, to the UC Berkeley-UCLA Symposium "The Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy, and Public Policy," at the University of California, Berkeley.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Gold as a private hedge against inflation

Special issue on gold
Economic Review , Issue Win , Pages 21-31

Conference Paper
Econometric studies at Bank Indonesia

Proceedings , Issue 1 , Pages 255-270

Conference Paper
Optimal monetary policy inertia

Proceedings

Working Paper
The welfare consequences of ATM surcharges: evidence from a structural entry model

We estimate a structural model of the market for automatic teller machines (ATMs) in order to evaluate the implications of regulating ATM surcharges on ATM entry and consumer and producer surplus. We estimate the model using data on firm and consumer locations, and identify the parameters of the model by exploiting a source of local quasi?experimental variation, that the state of Iowa banned ATM surcharges during our sample period while the state of Minnesota did not. We develop new econometric methods that allow us to estimate the parameters of equilibrium models without computing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2005-01

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