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Working Paper
mREITs and their risks
Sabol, Steven; Walter, John R.; Pellerin, Sabrina (2013)
This paper examines the history of mREITs and their broader role in the REIT industry. Additionally, it reviews how mREITs operate, how they are regulated, the risks they face, how they manage these risks, and the dangers they pose for the broader financial system.
Working Paper , Paper 13-19

Working Paper
Commercial real estate overbuilding in the 1980's : beyond the hog cycle
Owens, Raymond E. (1994)
Working Paper , Paper 94-06

Working Paper
Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
Matthes, Christian; Hollmayr, Josef (2013)
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The agents in our model act as econometricians by estimating the policy rules for the different fiscal policy instruments, which include distortionary tax rates. ; Comparing the outcomes in our model to those under full-information rational expectations, we find that assuming the agents are not instantaneously ...
Working Paper , Paper 13-15

Working Paper
The Effects of Collecting Income Taxes on Social Security Benefits
Jones, John Bailey; Li, Yue (2017-01-12)
Since 1983, Social Security benefits have been subject to income taxation, a provision that can significantly increase the marginal income tax rate for older individuals. To assess the impact of this tax, we construct and calibrate a detailed life-cycle model of labor supply, saving, and Social Security claiming. We find that in a long-run stationary environment, replacing the taxation of Social Security benefits with a revenue-equivalent increase in the payroll tax would significantly increase labor supply, consumption and welfare. From an ex-ante perspective an even more desirable reform ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-2

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets
Sanchez, Juan M.; Cuadra, Gabriel; Sapriza, Horacio (2009)
Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-01

Working Paper
Optimal Incentive Contracts with Job Destruction Risk
Grochulski, Borys; Wong, Russell; Zhang, Yuzhe (2017-10-06)
We study the implications of job destruction risk for optimal incentives in a long-term contract with moral hazard. We extend the dynamic principal-agent model of Sannikov (2008) by adding an exogenous Poisson shock that makes the match between the firm and the agent permanently unproductive. In modeling job destruction as an exogenous Poisson shock, we follow the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search-and-matching literature. The optimal contract shows how job destruction risk is shared between the rm and the agent. Arrival of the job-destruction shock is always bad news for the rm but can be ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-11

Working Paper
The competitiveness of rural county manufacturing during a period of dollar appreciation
Chmura, Christine; Bechter, Dan M. (1990)
Some observers contend that manufacturing activity in rural areas has been more adversely affected than in urban areas by foreign competition. It is true, of course, that the economies of some rural areas have been devastated by closing of key manufacturing plants. Even if plant closings were distributed randomly among rural and urban areas, however, some rural areas (as well as some urban areas) would suffer greatly because of their "company town" character. We found little empirical support in the literature for the claim that rural areas on average suffered disproportionately from ...
Working Paper , Paper 90-04

Working Paper
The role of information in the rise in consumer bankruptcies
Sanchez, Juan M. (2009)
Consumer bankruptcies rose sharply over the last 20 years in the U.S. economy. During the same period, there was impressive technological progress in the information sector. This paper provides a theory to understand and quantify the role of improvements in information technologies in consumer credit markets. Informational frictions restrict the amount of debt that can be borrowed. In fact, in the equilibrium in which investing in information is too expensive, many households borrow such small amounts that the default risk is very low. When information costs drop and informational frictions ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-04

Working Paper
Firms as clubs in Walrasian markets with private information
Townsend, Robert M.; Prescott, Edward Simpson (2000)
Using private information and club theories, this paper develops a theory of firms in general equilibrium. Firms are defined to be assignments of technologies and agents to clubs. In equilibrium, firms form endogenously and multiple types may co-exist. We formulate the general equilibrium problem as both a Pareto program and as a competitive equilibrium. Welfare and existence theorems are provided. In the competitive equilibrium, club memberships are priced and purchased, so the market determines which organizations exist as well as who is a member. Pareto optima and competitive equilibria of ...
Working Paper , Paper 00-08

Working Paper
On the Distribution of College Dropouts: Wealth and Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Risk
Trachter, Nicholas; Ozdagli, Ali K. (2015-11-19)
We present a dynamic model of the decision to pursue a college degree in which students face uncertainty about their future income stream after graduation due to unobserved heterogeneity in their innate scholastic ability. After matriculating and taking some exams, students re-evaluate their expectations about succeeding in college and may decide to drop out and start working. The model shows that, in accordance with the data, poorer students are less likely to graduate and are likely to drop out sooner than wealthier students. Our model generates these results without introducing explicit ...
Working Paper , Paper 15-15

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