Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
Barkin, Tom (2025-01-03)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
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How Did the Economy Get Here?
Barkin, Tom (2024-11-12)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
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Inflation Then and Now
Barkin, Tom (2025-02-25)
Labor market conditions remain solid, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. It makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2 percent target.I recognize the fight against inflation has been long. But it is critical that we remain steadfast.It is tempting to focus on gaming out short-term factors, but it’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amidst such uncertainty. So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds.
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