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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond  Series:Richmond Fed Economic Brief 

High Labor Market Churn During the 2020 Recession

Richmond Fed research has found that job losses during the COVID-19 recession have been concentrated in high-turnover sectors, with turnover rates in those occupations even higher than they were during the Great Recession. Workers displaced from high-turnover occupations often avoid long periods of unemployment, but they are historically less likely to develop long-term employment relationships, which limits their potential for sustained wage growth.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 06

Do Net Interest Margins and Interest Rates Move Together?

Many market participants assume that, as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and market rates increase in response, banks will be better off because their net interest margins will also increase. As a way to understand the origins of this expectation, in this Economic Brief we look at the relationship between the federal funds rate and the average net interest margin for U.S. banks since the mid-1980s. We find that the relationship is not as clear-cut as one might suspect.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue May

School Quality as a Tool for Attracting People to Rural Areas

Many rural localities are interested in strategies for retaining residents and attracting newcomers. Recent research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools. In this research, which is the first national study of the relationship between school quality and migration flows in and out of rural areas, better outcomes for students in a rural county's schools were associated with higher migration into that county.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-08 , Pages 4

Can an Individual Large Firm Impact the U.S. Business Cycle?

Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 24

Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely?

The recent flattening of the yield curve has raised concerns that a recession is around the corner. Such concerns stem partly from the fact that yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions. However, other factors affect the yield curve's shape besides the expected future health of the economy. In particular, a low term premium ? as has been observed in recent years ? makes yield curve inversions more likely even if the risk of recession has not increased at all.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue December

How Did Short-Term Market Rates React to Liftoff?

The implementation of monetary policy has changed significantly since 2008. In particular, very large excess reserves in the financial system have led to the creation of new tools to manage the federal funds rate. Given these changes, some observers have wondered how money market interest rates would respond to "liftoff," the Fed's first interest rate increase from effectively zero. Since liftoff in December 2015, it appears that the Fed's influence over short-term interest rates remains intact.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue September

The Role of Central Bank Lending in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Central banks can extend credit in pursuit of different policy objectives, two of which are discussed in this Economic Brief. First, lending can be used to achieve interest rate control. Second, lending can be used to provide liquidity insurance. A narrow view of central bank lending emphasizes the first objective, in which subsidized credit to targeted market participants is not seen as essential. A broader view considers targeted lending as sometimes necessary. Which perspective is favored is largely, though not wholly, dependent on judgments about the prevalence of frictions that inhibit ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue December

What Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Tell Us

Throughout this period of high inflation, people have wondered when inflation will return to the FOMC's longer-run target of 2 percent. Many models and surveys on inflation expectations exist to help answer this question. In this Economic Brief, we explore the accuracy of these measures of inflation expectations and what information can be obtained from them. While we find these popular sources of inflation are historically inaccurate, they can still gather valuable information, such as people's confidence in the ability of the Fed to get inflation back to target.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 03

What Do Recent Studies Say About Crime and Policing? Part 2

Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 29b

The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Economists often describe the Great Inflation of the 1970s as a failure of the monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Arthur Burns. According to conventional wisdom, when Paul Volcker became chairman of the Fed in 1979, he implemented changes that ushered in a period of disinflation. This Economic Brief challenges this standard narrative in two ways. First, it argues that the ?Volcker disinflation? had its roots in 1974. And second, Volcker?s actions were the culmination of a gradual shift in policy that began under Burns rather than an abrupt shift.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue November




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