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Briefing
How Much Does Household Consumption Impact Business Cycles?
Matthes, Christian; Schwartzman, Felipe (2021-08)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 25

Briefing
Projecting the Evolution of the Fed's Balance Sheet
Kirk, Kyler; Ennis, Huberto M. (2022-04)
As the Fed embarks on balance sheet policy normalization, there is natural interest in understanding the projected evolution of the Fed's asset portfolio over the next three to four years. Several important assumptions are needed to be able to predict the path of the balance sheet. Based exclusively on public information, we use alternative sets of plausible assumptions to construct and analyze several different scenarios for the future of this critical policy-relevant lever.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 15

Briefing
The Pandemic, Child Care and Women’s Labor Force Participation
Latham, Sierra; Athreya, Kartik B. (2022-05)
The pandemic has changed how households work, spend and care for children. In this Economic Brief, we highlight economic research that examines the patterns seen in women's work experiences in particular. We look at both the pandemic and, more generally, how shocks to the economy affect women's work decisions. Throughout, we will try to connect what we observe to households' broader economic environments and will emphasize — in the case of the pandemic — the role of away-from-home child care.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 16

Briefing
Explaining the car industry cluster: the case of U.S. car makers from 1895-1969
Wang, Zhu; Price, David A. (2012-10)
The geographic clustering of companies within an industry is often attributed to several agglomeration economies: intra-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in the same industry), inter-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in related industries), and spinoffs (firms established by former employees of a company in the same industry). Analysis of data on the U.S. auto industry in its first 75 years sheds light on the relative importance of those forces to the clustering of car makers
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Oct

Briefing
Climate Change and Financial Stability? Recalling Lessons from the Great Recession
Phan, Toan (2021-08)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 27

Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending
Muething, Catherine; Fessenden, Helen (2017-08)
U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Briefing
Detecting Inflation Instability
Wolman, Alexander L. (2023-03)
In a stable monetary policy regime, the share of relative price increases helps to explain monthly inflation fluctuations. We illustrate this regularity with U.S. data from January 1995 through February 2020, then we use it to evaluate whether the regime has remained stable during the pandemic period. From March 2021 to February 2022, the behavior of inflation and the share of relative price increases was inconsistent with the pre-pandemic regime. Recent data show some signs of a return to that regime.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 11

Briefing
How Couples Approach Portfolio Allocation
Lazaryan, Nika; Neelakantan, Urvi; Fessenden, Helen (2017-02)
The classical theory of household portfolio allocation finds that the share of household wealth invested in risky assets is independent of the level of household wealth. However, this prediction is at odds with empirical observations. This Economic Brief presents findings that reconcile the two. A model in which a household's portfolio allocation reflects the preferences of both spouses, adjusted for the bargaining power of each spouse, predicts that the wealthier a household becomes, the greater the share of its wealth will be invested in risky assets.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue February

Briefing
What Does the FOMC's Shift in Fed Funds Rate Target Language Mean?
Wolman, Alexander L. (2021-07)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 22

Briefing
Why Do Long-Term Unemployed Workers Struggle to Find New Jobs?
Borovickova, Katrina (2023-04)
The job finding probabilities of workers who just lost their jobs are higher than for those who have been unemployed for several months. There are two broad reasons why this is the case: Either the job finding probabilities of workers decrease with unemployment duration, or workers differ in how quickly they can find jobs. Using an economic model and Austrian social security data on unemployment duration of workers, we estimate the importance of these two channels. We find that the latter is more important, especially in explaining a sharp decline in the job finding probability during the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 10

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