A \\"New Normal\\"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States
Aaron Steelman, director of publications, and John A. Weinberg, senior vice president and special advisor to the president, examine the claim that the U.S. economy has reached a "new normal" of roughly 2 percent annual growth. This has been the average growth rate since the end of the Great Recession, considerably lower than the post-World War II average. Proponents of the new normal hypothesis argue, among other things, that innovation has slowed and is unlikely to improve. They also believe that demographic trends pose serious problems for U.S. fiscal policy and will exert a drag on the ...
Unsustainable fiscal policy: implications for monetary policy
Federal government debt held by the public reached 67.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, and trends point to large budget deficits for many years to come. In this essay, economics writer Renee Haltom and research director John Weinberg explore the implications for monetary policy if the United States ever approached its "fiscal limit." In that scenario, the Federal Reserve might face pressure to produce inflation revenue. The authors conclude that the United States must avoid this scenario by placing fiscal policy on a more sustainable path
Understanding Urban Decline
Senior policy economist Santiago Pinto and economics writer Tim Sablik discuss the forces that drive urbanization and the factors that determine where firms and households locate within cities. Pinto and Sablik also evaluate a variety of place-based and people-based policy responses to urban decline. Because every city is different, the authors caution that revitalization efforts that worked for one city may not work for another.
Land of opportunity? Economic mobility in the United States. 2012 annual report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economics writer Jessie Romero and group vice president Kartik Athreya interpret data that suggest economic mobility has decreased in recent years. Many factors contribute to mobility, but for most people advancement depends on opportunities to obtain human capital ? opportunities that are not as good for children in poor families. Initiatives that focus on early childhood education seem to yield high returns on investment. Their feasibility on a large scale is unknown, but they may have the potential to help the United States achieve a more inclusive prosperity.
The financial crisis : toward an explanation and policy response. 2008 annual report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
This year's article was co-authored by Aaron Steelman, director of publications, and John A. Weinberg, senior vice president and director of research. The authors discuss the key events of the financial crisis, examine which factors contributed to it, and consider how policymakers might most effectively respond. At the core of their discussion is the role that explicit and implicit government guarantees played in encouraging unwise risk-taking by financial institutions.