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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
The rise of the skilled city

For more than a century, educated cities have grown more quickly than comparable cities with less human capital. This fact survives a battery of other control variables, metropolitan area fixed effects, and tests for reverse causality. The authors also find that skilled cities are growing because they are becoming more economically productive (relative to less skilled cities), not because these cities are becoming more attractive places to live. Most surprisingly, the authors find evidence suggesting that the skills-city growth connection occurs mainly in declining areas and occurs in large ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-2

Working Paper
Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

Working Papers , Paper 93-22

Working Paper
The decline of labor productivity in the 1970's: the role of embodied technological change

Working Papers , Paper 86-5

Working Paper
Incumbency Disadvantage in U.S. National Politics: The Role of Policy Inertia and Prospective Voting

We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage": If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats in Congress. We develop a model of partisan politics with policy inertia and prospective voting to explain this finding. Positive and normative implications of the model are explored.
Working Papers , Paper 17-43

Working Paper
Translog bias under declining average costs

Working Papers , Paper 95-13

Working Paper
Restricting consumer credit access: household survey evidence on effects around the Oregon rate cap

Many policymakers and some behavioral models hold that restricting access to expensive credit helps consumers by preventing overborrowing. The author examines some short-run effects of restricting access, using household panel survey data on payday loan users collected around the imposition of binding restrictions on payday loan terms in Oregon. The results suggest that borrowing fell in Oregon relative to Washington, with former payday loan users shifting partially into plausibly inferior substitutes. Additional evidence suggests that restricting access caused deterioration in the overall ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-32

Working Paper
Financing constraints and investment: new evidence from the U.S. hospital industry

Working Papers , Paper 91-4

Working Paper
Debt dilution and seniority in a model of defaultable sovereign debt

An important ineffciency in sovereign debt markets is debt dilution, wherein sovereigns ignore the adverse impact of new debt on the value of existing debt and, consequently, borrow too much and default too frequently. A widely proposed remedy is the inclusion of seniority clause in sovereign debt contracts: Creditors who lent first have priority in any restructuring proceedings. We incorporate seniority in a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and find that seniority is quite effective in mitigating the dilution problem. We also show theoretically that seniority cannot be fully ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-30

Working Paper
A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model

This version: March 28, 2016 First version: February 2014 {{p}} Structural DSGE models are used both for analyzing policy and the sources of business cycles. Conclusions based on full structural models are, however, potentially affected by misspecification. A competing method is to use partially identified VARs based on narrative shocks. This paper asks whether both approaches agree. First, I show that, theoretically, the narrative VAR approach is valid in a class of DSGE models with Taylor-type policy rules. Second, I quantify whether the two approaches also agree empirically, that is, ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-11

Working Paper
First-Time Homebuyers: Toward a New Measure

Existing data sources show divergent estimates of the number of homes purchased by first-time homebuyers as a share of all home purchases. In this paper, we use a new data set to construct a time series of the share of first-time homebuyers. This series, based on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), shows a significant decline in this share, particularly for young households, which is consistent with the decline in homeownership in this age cohort since the early 2000s.
Working Papers , Paper 17-36

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