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Working Paper
The role of agglomeration potential in population and employment growth
Mills, Edwin S.; Carlino, Gerald A. (1986)
Working Papers , Paper 86-13

Working Paper
Have money-stock fluctuations had a liquidity effect on expected real interest rates?
Oh, Seonghwan; Diba, Behzad T. (1988)
Working Papers , Paper 88-19

Working Paper
“Don’t Know What You Got Till It’s Gone”—The Community Reinvestment Act in a Changing Financial Landscape
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Ding, Lei (2020-02-20)
This study provides new evidence on the impact of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) on mortgage lending by taking advantage of an exogenous policy shock in 2014, which caused significant changes in neighborhoods’ CRA eligibility in the Philadelphia market. The loss of CRA coverage leads to an over 10 percent decrease in purchase originations by CRA-regulated lenders. While nondepository institutions replace approximately half, but not all, of the decreased lending, their increased market share was accompanied by a greater involvement in riskier and more costly FHA lending. This study ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-08

Working Paper
On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates
Diebold, Francis X.; Shin, Minchul; Zhang, Boyuan (2021-02-12)
We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density forecasts. We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts. All individual inflation forecasters (even the ex post best forecaster) are outperformed by our regularized mixtures. From the Great Recession onward, the optimal regularization tends to move density forecasts’ probability mass from the centers to the tails, correcting for overconfidence.
Working Papers , Paper 21-06

Working Paper
Regional income dynamics
Carlino, Gerald A.; DeFina, Robert H. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 93-1

Working Paper
Home production and Social Security reform
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2012)
This paper incorporates home production into a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous retirement to study Social Security reforms. As such, the model differentiates both consumption goods and labor effort according to their respective roles in home production and market activities. Using a calibrated model, we find that eliminating the current pay-as-you-go Social Security system has important implications for both labor supply and consumption decisions and that these decisions are influenced by the presence of a home production technology. Comparing our ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-5

Working Paper
Immigration, skill mix, and the choice of technique
Lewis, Ethan (2005)
Using detailed plant-level data from the 1988 and 1993 Surveys of Manufacturing Technology, this paper examines the impact of skill mix in U.S. local labor markets on the use and adoption of automation technologies in manufacturing. The level of automation differs widely across U.S. metropolitan areas. In both 1988 and 1993, in markets with a higher relative availability of less skilled labor, comparable plants ? even plants in the same narrow (4-digit SIC) industries ? used systematically less automation. Moreover, between 1988 and 1993 plants in areas experiencing faster less-skilled ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-8

Working Paper
The Impact of Fintech Lending on Credit Access for U.S. Small Businesses
Cornelli, Giulio; Frost, Jon; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Jagtiani, Julapa (2022-04-25)
Small business lending (SBL) plays an important role in funding productive investment and fostering local economic growth. Recently, nonbank lenders have gained market share in the SBL market in the United States, especially relative to community banks. Among nonbanks, fintech lenders have become particularly active, leveraging alternative data for their own internal credit scoring. We use proprietary loan-level data from two fintech SBL platforms (Funding Circle and LendingClub) to explore the characteristics of loans originated pre-pandemic (2016‒2019). Our results show that fintech SBL ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-14

Working Paper
Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth.
Fecht, Falko; Huang, Kevin X. D.; Martin, Antoine (2004)
We build a model in which financial intermediaries provide insurance to households against a liquidity shock. Households can also invest directly on a financial market if they pay a cost. In equilibrium, the ability of intermediaries to share risk is constrained by the market. This can be beneficial because intermediaries invest less in the productive technology when they provide more risk-sharing. Our model predicts that bank-oriented economies should grow slower than more market-oriented economies, which is consistent with some recent empirical evidence. We show that the mix of ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-24

Working Paper
Debtor Fraud in Consumer Debt Renegotiation
Mikhed, Slava; Raina, Sahil; Scholnick, Barry; Zhang, Man (2022-10-26)
We study how forcing financially distressed consumer debtors to repay a larger fraction of debt can lead them to misreport data fraudulently. Using a plausibly exogenous policy change that required debtors to increase repayment to creditors, we document that debtors manipulated data to avoid higher repayment. Consistent with deliberate fraud, data manipulators traveled farther to find more lenient insolvency professionals who, historically, approved more potentially fraudulent filings. Finally, we find that those debtors who misreported income had a lower probability of default on their debt ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-35

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