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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
Perfectual signaling with imperfectly correlated costs

Working Papers , Paper 92-8

Working Paper
Ricardian equivalence under income uncertainty

Working Papers , Paper 92-6

Working Paper
Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle, and the housing bubble

We explore the role of consumer risk appetite in the initiation of credit cycles and as an early trigger of the U.S. mortgage crisis. We analyze a panel data set of mortgages originated between the years 2000 and 2009 and follow their performance up to 2014. After controlling for all the usual observable effects, we show that a strong residual vintage effect remains. This vintage effect correlates well with consumer mortgage demand, as measured by the Federal Reserve Board?s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, and correlates well to changes in mortgage pricing at the time the loan was ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-5

Working Paper
Declining labor turnover and turbulence

Superseded by 18-06. The purpose of this paper is to identify possible sources of the secular decline in the job separation rate over the past four decades. I use a simple labor matching model with two types of workers, experienced and inexperienced, where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment. When the skill loss occurs, the worker is required to restart his career and thus suffers a drop in his wage. I show that a higher risk of skill loss results in a lower separation rate. The key mechanism is that the experienced workers accept lower wages in exchange for keeping ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-29

Working Paper
Deposits and relationship lending

The authors empirically examine the hypothesis that access to deposits with inelastic rates (core deposits) permits a bank to make contractual agreements with borrowers that are infeasible if the bank must pay market rates for its funds. Access to core deposits insulates a bank's costs of funds from exogenous shocks, allowing the bank to insulate its borrowers against exogenous credit shocks. The authors find that, controlling for competitive conditions in loan markets, banks funded more heavily with core deposits provide more smoothing of loan rates in response to exogenous changes in ...
Working Papers , Paper 98-22

Working Paper
When do regulators close banks? When should they?

Working Papers , Paper 93-10

Working Paper
On the profitability and cost of relationship lending

The authors provide some preliminary evidence on the costs and profitability of relationship lending by commercial banks. Drawing on recent research that has identified loan rate smoothing as a significant element in lending relationships between banks and firms, the authors carry out a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, the authors derive bank-specific measures of the extent to which the banks in their sample engage in loan rate smoothing for small business borrowers in response to exogenous shocks to their credit risk. In the second stage, the authors estimate cost and (alternative) ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-3

Working Paper
Leaving Households Behind: Institutional Investors and the U.S. Housing Recovery

Ten years after the mortgage crisis, the U.S. housing market has rebounded significantly with house prices now near the peak achieved during the boom. Homeownership rates, on the other hand, have continued to decline. We reconcile the two phenomena by documenting the rising presence of institutional investors in this market. Our analysis makes use of housing transaction data. By exploiting heterogeneity in zip codes' exposure to the First Look program instituted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that affected investors' access to foreclosed properties, we establish the causal relationship between ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-1

Working Paper
Evolution, coordination, and banking panics

Working Papers , Paper 95-27

Working Paper
A seniority arrangement for sovereign debt

A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate the debt dilution problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in sovereign debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the ?absolute priority" or ?first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule that is more suited to the sovereign debt context and analyze its positive and normative implications ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-7

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