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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
Localized Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from the Spatial Clustering of R&D Labs and Patent Citations

Patent citations are a commonly used indicator of knowledge spillovers among inventors, while clusters of research and development labs are locations in which knowledge spillovers are particularly likely to occur. In this paper, we assign patents and citations to newly defined clusters of American R&D labs to capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is strongest at small spatial scales and diminishes rapidly with distance. On average, patents within a cluster are about three to six ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-32

Working Paper
Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies

Social and private insurance schemes rely on legal action to deter fraud and tax evasion. This observation guides the authors to introduce a random state verification technology in a dynamic economy with private information. With some probability, an agent's skill level becomes known to the planner, who prescribes a punishment if the agent is caught misreporting. The authors show how deferring consumption can ease the provision of incentives. As a result, the marginal benefit may be below the marginal cost of investment in the constrained-efficient allocation, suggesting a subsidy on savings. ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-7

Working Paper
Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market

The authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-13

Working Paper
Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in large scale macroeconomic time series environments

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-25

Working Paper
Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times

When home prices threaten to decline, lenders bearing more of a community’s mortgage risk have an incentive to combat this decline with new lending that boosts demand. We test whether this incentive drove the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to guarantee riskier mortgages in early 2007, as the chance of substantial declines grew from small to significant. To identify the effect we relate new risky lending to regional variation in the GSEs’ exposure and the interaction of this variation with home-price elasticity. We focus on the GSEs’ discretion across potential purchases by ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-04R

Working Paper
Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents

We build a New Keynesian model in which heterogeneous workers differ with regard to their employment status due to search and matching frictions in the labor market, their potential labor income, and their amount of savings. We use this laboratory to quantitatively assess who stands to win or lose from unanticipated monetary accommodation and who benefits most from systematic monetary stabilization policy. We find substantial redistribution effects of monetary policy shocks; a contractionary monetary policy shock increases income and welfare of the wealthiest 5 percent, while the remaining 95 ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-21

Working Paper
Retail pricing of ATM network services

This paper develops a model of wholesale and retail fee-setting for automated teller machine (ATM) network services, and comparative statics results are derived. Retail ATM fees are shown to be dependent on the demand-side network effect and economies of scale in production of network services. These, in turn, are functions of the size of the ATM network. Survey data on bank fees are linked with the bank's probable ATM network membership, and the retail ATM fees are regressed on ATM network size and other variables in a reduced-form estimation. The results suggest that both network effects in ...
Working Papers , Paper 96-12

Working Paper
Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model

Working Papers , Paper 87-14

Working Paper
Seigniorage and the European Community: is European economic and monetary union in danger?

Working Papers , Paper 90-19

Working Paper
Viability of traditional banking activities: evidence from shifts in conduct and excess capacity

Working Papers , Paper 94-11

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