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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 

Journal Article
From cycles to shocks: progress in business-cycle theory

Boom leads to recession, recession to boom, and the economy is caught in a self-sustaining cycle. Or is it? More recent economic theory states that cyclical fluctuations in the economy are caused by shocks and other disturbances that continually buffet the economy. In this article, Satyajit Chatterjee examines the historical process by which the explanation of fluctuations in the economy has evolved from a theory of cycles to one of shocks.
Business Review , Issue Mar , Pages 27-37

Journal Article
How efficient are Third District banks?

Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-18

Journal Article
Non-open-market monetary policy operations

Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-15

Speech
Economic outlook and monetary policy

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia CFA Society of Philadelphia/The Bond Club of Philadelphia, September 25, 2012
Speech , Paper 72

Speech
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble: a dangerous brew for monetary policy: a speech at the Cato Institute’s 28th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C., November 18, 2010

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> Cato Institute?s 28th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C., November 18, 2010
Speech , Paper 45

Working Paper
Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss

Prediction problems involving asymmetric loss functions arise routinely in many fields, yet the theory of optimal prediction under asymmetric loss is not well developed. We study the optimal prediction problem under general loss structures and characterize the optimal predictor. We compute it numerically in less tractable cases. A key theme is that the conditionally optimal forecast is biased under asymmetric loss and that the conditionally optimal amount of bias is time-varying in general and depends on higher-order conditional moments. Thus, for example, volatility dynamics (e.g., GARCH ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-11

Working Paper
Limited and varying consumer attention: evidence from shocks to the salience of bank overdraft fees

The authors explore dynamics of limited attention in the $35 billion market for checking overdrafts, using survey content as shocks to the salience of overdraft fees. Conditional on selection into surveys, individuals who face overdraft-related questions are less likely to incur a fee in the survey month. Taking multiple overdraft surveys builds a "stock" of attention that reduces overdrafts for up to two years. The effects are significant among consumers with lower education and financial literacy. Consumers avoid overdrafts not by increasing balances but by making fewer debit transactions ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-17

Journal Article
Labor market anxiety and the downward trend in the job separation rate

Anecdotal evidence suggests that labor market conditions surrounding American workers had been worsening in recent decades, even before the severe recession in 2007-2009. However, studies by academic researchers have not found clear evidence that worker turnover has increased over time. In this article, Shigeru Fujita shows that there is a long-run downward trend in the separation rate into unemployment and examines several factors that help account for this long-run decline. He argues that the aging of the labor force has played an important role in the trend. He also explains, using an ...
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 1-7

Journal Article
Dividing up the investment pie: have we overinvested in housing?

Business Review , Issue Mar , Pages 13-23

Journal Article
Commentary: Voluntary inflation restraint and corporate social responsibility

Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-4

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Plosser, Charles I. 112 items

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