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Journal Article
Understanding national and regional housing trends
Mills, Leonard O. (1991-09)
Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 15-23

Speech
Transparency and monetary policy
Plosser, Charles I. (2012-05-03)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project 2012, May 3, 2012
Speech , Paper 69

Working Paper
Localized Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from the Spatial Clustering of R&D Labs and Patent Citations
Carlino, Gerald A.; Smith, Tony E.; Carr, Jake; Hunt, Robert M.; Buzard, Kristy (2017-10-03)
Patent citations are a commonly used indicator of knowledge spillovers among inventors, while clusters of research and development labs are locations in which knowledge spillovers are particularly likely to occur. In this paper, we assign patents and citations to newly defined clusters of American R&D labs to capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is strongest at small spatial scales and diminishes rapidly with distance. On average, patents within a cluster are about three to six ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-32

Working Paper
Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies
Armenter, Roc; Mertens, Thomas M. (2010)
Social and private insurance schemes rely on legal action to deter fraud and tax evasion. This observation guides the authors to introduce a random state verification technology in a dynamic economy with private information. With some probability, an agent's skill level becomes known to the planner, who prescribes a punishment if the agent is caught misreporting. The authors show how deferring consumption can ease the provision of incentives. As a result, the marginal benefit may be below the marginal cost of investment in the constrained-efficient allocation, suggesting a subsidy on savings. ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-7

Working Paper
Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Calem, Paul S.; Cannon, Matthew (2011)
The authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-13

Working Paper
Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in large scale macroeconomic time series environments
Swanson, Norman R.; Armah, Nii Ayi (2008)
In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-25

Working Paper
Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times
Gupta, Deeksha; Elul, Ronel; Musto, David K. (2020-12-09)
When home prices threaten to decline, lenders bearing more of a community’s mortgage risk have an incentive to combat this decline with new lending that boosts demand. We test whether this incentive drove the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to guarantee riskier mortgages in early 2007, as the chance of substantial declines grew from small to signiﬁcant. To identify the eﬀect we relate new risky lending to regional variation in the GSEs’ exposure and the interaction of this variation with home-price elasticity. We focus on the GSEs’ discretion across potential purchases by ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-04R

Journal Article
Is the personal bankruptcy system bankrupt?
Mester, Loretta J. (2002-01)
Loretta Mester outlines the components of reform proposals. She then looks at the empirical research on personal bankruptcy to evaluate the rationale for reforming the system and the effectiveness of proposed changes. ; Also issued as Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper No. 02-02
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 31-44

Journal Article
Creative destruction and aggregate productivity growth
Fujita, Shigeru (2008-07)
Productivity growth is the engine of economic growth and is responsible for rising standards of living. But all firms do not partake equally in the nation's productivity growth. Rather, according to economist Joseph Schumpeter's theory, firms undergo a process of "creative destruction": New firms that adapt to new knowledge cause the decline and eventual demise of incumbent firms. In "Creative Destruction and Aggregate Productivity Growth," Shigeru Fujita surveys recent studies that examine the role of creative destruction in aggregate productivity growth.
Business Review , Issue Q3 , Pages 12-20

Journal Article
Commentary: Monetarism and practical policymaking
Boehne, Edward G. (1979-11)
Business Review , Issue Nov , Pages 3-4

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