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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 

Working Paper
Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility
Declining internal migration in the United States is driven by increasing home attach-ment in locations with initially high rates of population turnover. These ?fast? locations were the population growth destinations of the 20th century, where home attachments were low, but have increased as regional population growth has converged. Using a novel measure of attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify candidate explanations of the decline. Rising home attachment accounts for most of the decline not attributable to population aging, and its e?ect is consistent with the observed spatial pattern.
AUTHORS: Coate, Patrick; Mangum, Kyle
DATE: 2019-12-02

Working Paper
Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications
This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation dynamics through both their effect on marginal cost and on price-setting behavior. In a search and matching environment, we consider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage bargaining vs. efficient bargaining, wage stickiness in new and existing matches, interactions at the firm level between price and wage-setting, alternative forms of hiring frictions, search on-the-job and endogenous job separation. We find that most specifications imply too little real rigidity and, so, too volatile inflation. Models with wage stickiness and right-to-manage bargaining or with firm-specific labour emerge as the most promising candidates.
AUTHORS: Christoffel, Kai; Costain, James; Gregory de Walque; Kuester, Keith; Linzert, Tobias; Millard, Stephen P.; Pierrard, Olivier
DATE: 2009

Journal Article
Shadow banking and the crisis of 2007-08
In recent decades, institutions that function much like traditional banks have grown outside regulatory oversight. Yet, as Daniel Sanches explains, these so-called shadow banks are as vulnerable to runs as regular banks. Because banking crises can inflict lasting economic harm, economists are interested in tracing how the panic ensued in the shadow system.
AUTHORS: Sanches, Daniel R.
DATE: 2014

Journal Article
The redistributive consequences of monetary policy
Monetary policy is not intended to benefit one segment of the population at the expense of another by redistributing income and wealth. But as Makoto Nakajima explains, it is probably impossible to avoid such redistributive consequences.
AUTHORS: Nakajima, Makoto
DATE: 2015

Journal Article
Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1993

Journal Article
Deficit-financed tax cuts and interest rates
Why do proposals to lower taxes often meet with opposition in Congress. One argument is that lowering taxes without an equivalent fall in government spending may lead to future budget deficits, which will translate into higher long-term interest rates and a lower level of income. Sylvain Leduc discusses the theoretical arguments under which budget deficits lead to higher interest rates. He also surveys empirical studies that used data on expected budget deficits to document the possibility that increases in future budget deficits are associated with higher real long-term interest rates.
AUTHORS: Leduc, Sylvain
DATE: 2004

Journal Article
U.S. coins: forecasting change
Our next article talks about change-as in coins. Every year, the government produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child. But the economy's need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? In "U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change," Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 2003

Journal Article
Making monetary policy: what do we know and when do we know it?
President Anthony Santomero points out that conducting a successful monetary policy presents real-world challenges, such as evaluating where the economy is, where it is going, and where it should be going. But how do monetary policymakers make decisions about the economy in a world with imperfect information? Santomero discusses how policymaking is affected by both the availability and reliability of economic information. He concludes that given the information constraints policymakers face, the challenges of setting monetary policy will not go away, so we must find a way to meet them
AUTHORS: Santomero, Anthony M.
DATE: 2005



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