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Student Debt and Default: The Role of For-Profit Colleges
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Lovenheim, Michael; Armona, Luis (2017-04-01)
For-profit providers have become an important fixture of U.S. higher education markets. Students who attend for-profit institutions take on more educational debt and are more likely to default on their student loans than those attending similarly selective public schools. Because for-profits tend to serve students from more disadvantaged backgrounds, it is important to isolate the causal effect of for-profit enrollment on student debt and repayment outcomes as well as the educational and labor market mechanisms that drive any such effects. We approach this problem using a novel instrument ...
Staff Reports , Paper 811

Report
Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles
Del Negro, Marco; Otrok, Christopher (2008)
We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying factor loadings and stochastic volatility in both the latent factors and idiosyncratic components. We employ this new measurement tool to study the evolution of international business cycles in the post-Bretton Woods period, using a panel of output growth rates for nineteen countries. We find 1) statistical evidence of a decline in volatility for most countries, with the timing, magnitude, and source (international or domestic) of the decline differing across countries; 2) some evidence of a decline in business cycle synchronization for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 326

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How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk? Evidence from commercial loans
Vickery, James (2005)
Although small firms are most sensitive to interest rate and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. The cross-sectional findings are as follows: credit-constrained firms consistently favor fixed-rate loans, minimizing their exposure to rising interest rates; firms adjust their exposure depending on how interest rate shocks covary with industry output; and "fixed versus adjustable" outcomes are correlated ...
Staff Reports , Paper 215

Report
The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes
Lester, Benjamin; Rivers, David A.; Topa, Giorgio (2021-10-01)
We document a new set of facts regarding the impact of referrals on labor market outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between different types of referrals—those from family and friends and those from business contacts—and different occupations. Then we develop an on-the-job search model that incorporates referrals and calibrate the model to key moments in the data. The calibrated model yields new insights into the roles played by different types of referrals in the match formation process, and provides quantitative estimates of the effects of referrals on ...
Staff Reports , Paper 987

Report
Compositional dynamics and the performance of the U.S. banking industry
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2000)
As the U.S. banking industry continuously evolves, changes in industry composition have a direct impact on the aggregate performance of the industry. This paper presents a new decomposition framework for commercial banks and shows that both firm-level changes and dynamic reallocation effects--due to increased market share of successful banks, exit of poor performers, and new entrants--made substantial contributions to changes in profitability and capitalization of the U.S. banking industry from 1976 to 1998. In periods of declining profits, these reallocations were particularly important, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 98

Report
International Trade, Risk and the Role of Banks
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2013-09-01)
Banks play a critical role in international trade by providing trade finance products that reduce the risk of exporting. This paper employs two new data sets to shed light on the magnitude and structure of this business, which, as we show, is highly concentrated in a few large banks. The two principal trade finance instruments, letters of credit and documentary collections, covered about 10 percent of U.S. exports in 2012. They are preferred for larger transactions, which indicates the existence of substantial fixed costs in the provision and use of these instruments. Letters of credit are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 633

Report
Subprime mortgage pricing: the impact of race, ethnicity, and gender on the cost of borrowing
Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Mayer, Christopher J. (2009)
Some observers have argued that minority borrowers and neighborhoods were targeted for expensive credit in 2004-06, the peak period for subprime lending. To investigate this claim, we take advantage of a new data set that merges demographic information on subprime borrowers with information on the mortgages they took out. In a sample of more than 75,000 adjustable-rate mortgages, we find no evidence of adverse pricing by race, ethnicity, or gender in either the initial rate or the reset margin. Indeed, if any pricing differential exists, minority borrowers appear to pay slightly lower rates, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 368

Report
Three decades of financial sector risk
Houston, Joel F.; Stiroh, Kevin J. (2006)
This paper examines the evolution of risk in the U.S. financial sector using firm-level equity market data from 1975 to 2005. Over this period, financial sector volatility has steadily increased, reaching extraordinary levels from 1998 to 2002. Much of this recent turbulence can be attributed to a series of major financial shocks, and we find evidence of an upward trend in volatility only for the common component that affects the entire financial sector. While idiosyncratic volatility remains dominant, a combination of common shocks, deregulation, and diversification has reduced its relative ...
Staff Reports , Paper 248

Report
Second chances: subprime mortgage modification and re-default
Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Okah, Ebiere (2009)
Mortgage modifications have become an important component of public interventions designed to reduce foreclosures. In this paper, we examine how the structure of a mortgage modification affects the likelihood of the modified mortgage re-defaulting over the next year. Using data on subprime modifications that precede the government's Home Affordable Modification Program, we focus our attention on those modifications in which the borrower was seriously delinquent and the monthly payment was reduced as part of the modification. The data indicate that the re-default rate declines with the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 417

Report
Financial Transaction Taxes and the Informational Efficiency of Financial Markets: A Structural Estimation
Cipriani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio; Uthemann, Andreas (2021-12-01)
We develop a new methodology to estimate the impact of a financial transaction tax (FTT) on financial market outcomes. In our sequential trading model, there are price-elastic noise and informed traders. We estimate the model through maximum likelihood for a sample of sixty New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks in 2017. We quantify the effect of introducing an FTT given the parameter estimates. An FTT increases the proportion of informed trading, improves information aggregation, but lowers trading volume and welfare. For some less-liquid stocks, however, an FTT blocks private information ...
Staff Reports , Paper 993

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