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Establishing credibility: evolving perceptions of the European Central Bank
Goldberg, Linda S.; Klein, Michael W. (2005)
The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high-frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of central bank inflation aversion. The first years of the European Central Bank (ECB) provide a natural experiment for this model. Tests of the effect of news announcements on the slope of yield curves in the euro area and on the euro-dollar exchange rate suggest that the market's perception of the policy ...
Staff Reports , Paper 231

Report
Nonlinearity and flight to safety in the risk-return trade-off for stocks and bonds
Vogt, Erik; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K. (2015-04-01)
We document a highly significant, strongly nonlinear dependence of stock and bond returns on past equity market volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that exploits additional variation in the cross section of returns. The nonlinearities are mirror images for stocks and bonds, revealing flight to safety: expected returns increase for stocks when volatility increases from moderate to high levels, while they decline for Treasury securities. These findings provide support for dynamic asset pricing theories where the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 723

Report
Vesting and control in venture capital contracts
Skeie, David R. (2007)
Vesting of equity payments to an entrepreneur, which is a form of time-contingent compensation, is very common in venture capital contracts. Empirical research suggests that vesting is used to help overcome asymmetric information and agency problems. We show in a theoretical model that vesting equity to an entrepreneur over a long period of time acts as a screening device against a bad entrepreneur type. But incomplete contracts due to hold-up by the venture capitalist imply that equity compensation, in the form of either short-term or long-term vesting, cannot provide standard contractible ...
Staff Reports , Paper 297

Report
Business cycle fluctuations and the distribution of consumption
De Giorgi, Giacomo; Gambetti, Luca (2015-03-01)
This paper sheds new light on the interactions between business cycles and the consumption distribution. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a factor model to characterize the cyclical dynamics of the consumption distribution. We first establish that our approach is able to closely match business cycle fluctuations of consumption from the National Account. We then study the responses of the consumption distribution to total factor productivity shocks and economic policy uncertainty shocks. Importantly, we find that the responses of the right tail of the consumption distribution, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 716

Report
Nonlinear impulse response functions
Potter, Simon M. (1999)
The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by defining a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series.
Staff Reports , Paper 65

Report
The impact of housing markets on consumer debt: credit report evidence from 1999 to 2012
Zafar, Basit; Stein, Sarah; Brown, Meta (2013)
We investigate the impact of large swings in the housing market on nonmortgage borrowing, including student, credit card, auto, and home equity debts. For this purpose, we use CoreLogic geographic house price variation, matched with rich data on consumer liabilities from the Equifax-sourced FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel. The length and timing of our panel allow us to study the consumer debt portfolio response to house price changes during a boom-and-bust cycle of historic magnitude as well as during more ordinary times. In first-differenced instrumental variables estimation, we find that during ...
Staff Reports , Paper 617

Report
Does foreign ownership contribute to sounder banks in emerging markets? the Latin American experience
Dages, B. Gerard; Goldberg, Linda S.; Crystal, Jennifer S. (2001)
Foreign bank entrants into emerging markets are usually thought to improve the condition and performance of acquired institutions, and more generally to enhance local financial stability. We use bank-specific data for a range of Latin American countries since the mid-1990s to address elements of this claim. Across the seven largest countries, we find that the financial strength ratings of local banks acquired by foreign entities generally show a slight improvement relative to their domestic counterparts. Our more in-depth case studies of Chile, Colombia, and Argentina do not indicate striking ...
Staff Reports , Paper 137

Report
Intermediary balance sheets
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2013-11-01)
We document the cyclical properties of the balance sheets of different types of intermediaries. While the leverage of the bank sector is highly procyclical, the leverage of the nonbank financial sector is acyclical. We propose a theory of a two-agent financial intermediary sector within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Banks are financed by issuing risky debt to households and face risk-based capital constraints, which leads to procyclical leverage. Households can also participate in financial markets by investing in a nonbank ?fund? sector where fund managers face skin-in-the-game ...
Staff Reports , Paper 651

Report
A framework for identifying the sources of local currency price stability with an empirical application
Hellerstein, Rebecca; Goldberg, Pinelopi K. (2007)
The inertia of traded goods' local currency prices in the face of exchange rate changes is a well-documented phenomenon in the field of international economics. This paper develops a framework for identifying the sources of local currency price stability. The empirical approach exploits manufacturers' and retailers' first-order conditions, in conjunction with detailed information on the frequency of price adjustments in response to exchange rate changes, to quantify the relative importance of fixed costs of repricing, local-cost nontraded components, and markup adjustment by manufacturers and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 287

Report
Banking across borders with heterogeneous banks
Niepmann, Friederike (2013-04-01)
Individual banks differ substantially in their foreign operations. This paper introduces heterogeneous banks into a general equilibrium framework of banking across borders to explain the documented variation. While the model matches existing micro and macro evidence, novel and unexplored predictions of the theory are also strongly supported by the data: The efficiency of the least efficient bank active in a host country increases the greater the impediments to banking across borders and the efficiency of the banking sector in the host country. There is also evidence of a tradeoff between ...
Staff Reports , Paper 609

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