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Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements
Grisse, Christian; Goldberg, Linda S.
(2013-08-01)
Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the news release, and risk conditions: Government bond yields ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 626
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Real-time search in the laboratory and the market
Brown, Meta; Flinn, Christopher J.; Schotter, Andrew
(2009)
While widely accepted models of labor market search imply a constant reservation wage policy, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that reservation wages decline in the duration of search. This paper reports the results of the first real-time-search laboratory experiment. The controlled environment that subjects face is stationary, and the payoff-maximizing reservation wage is constant. Nevertheless, subjects' reservation wages decline sharply over time. We investigate two hypotheses to explain this decline: 1) searchers respond to the stock of accruing search costs, and 2) searchers ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 410
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Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
Keister, Todd
(2006)
This paper presents a model in which currency crises can spread across countries as a result of the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants. An incomplete-information approach is used to overcome many undesirable features of existing multiple-equilibrium explanations of contagion. If speculators expect contagion across markets to occur, they have an incentive to trade in both currency markets to take advantage of this correlation. These actions, in turn, link the two markets in such a way that a sharp devaluation of one currency will be propagated to the other market, fulfilling the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 249
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Agglomeration and job matching among college graduates
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard
(2012-12-01)
We examine job matching as a potential source of urban agglomeration economies. Focusing on college graduates, we construct two direct measures of job matching based on how well an individual?s job corresponds to his or her college education. Consistent with matching-based theories of urban agglomeration, we find evidence that larger and thicker local labor markets increase both the likelihood and quality of a job match for college graduates. We then assess the extent to which better job matching of college-educated workers increases individual-level wages and thereby contributes to the urban ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 587
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When is U.S. bank lending to emerging markets volatile?
Goldberg, Linda S.
(2001)
Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending, and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 119
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Investment shocks and business cycles
Justiniano, Alejandro; Tambalotti, Andrea; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
(2008)
Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in U.S. output and hours. Moreover, like a textbook demand shock, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions. We reach these conclusions by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with several shocks and frictions. We also find that neutral technology shocks are not negligible, but their share in the variance of output is only around 25 percent and even lower for hours. Labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the variation of hours at very ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 322
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The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Benigno, Gianluca; di Giovanni, Julian; Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I.
(2022-05-01)
We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
Staff Reports
, Paper 1017
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Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability
Kahn, Charles M.; Panjwani, Ahyan; Santos, João A. C.
(2024-05-01)
In this paper, we introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking. We build on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980, which significantly expanded and restructured the decades-old federal crop insurance program and adverse weather shocks – over-exposure of crops to heat and acute weather events – to investigate some insights from our model. Banks increased lending to the agricultural sector in counties with higher insurance coverage after 1980, even when affected by adverse weather shocks. Further, while they increased risky lending, they were sufficiently ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1107
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Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions
Himmelberg, Charles P.; Mayer, Christopher J.; Sinai, Todd
(2005)
We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 218
Report
Runs and Flights to Safety: Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds?
Macchiavelli, Marco; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele; Wang, J. Christina; Huang, Catherine; Malfroy-Camine, Antoine; Azar, Pablo D.; Landoni, Mattia
(2023-09-01)
Similar to the more traditional money market funds (MMFs), stablecoins aim to provide investors with safe, money-like assets. We investigate similarities and differences between these two investment products. Like MMFs, stablecoins suffer from “flight-to-safety” dynamics: we document net flows from riskier to safer stablecoins on days of crypto-market stress and estimate a discrete “break-the-buck” threshold of $1, below which stablecoin redemptions accelerate. We then focus on two specific stablecoin runs, in 2022 and 2023, showing that the same flight-to-safety dynamics also ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1073
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financial stability 25 items
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systemic risk 23 items
time series analysis 22 items
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inflation 19 items
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banks 16 items
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financial intermediation 15 items
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unemployment 15 items
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financial crisis 14 items
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regulation 13 items
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financial frictions 10 items
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expectations 9 items
heterogeneity 9 items
money market funds 9 items
repo 9 items
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mortgage 6 items
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bank 4 items
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clustering 4 items
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marginal propensity to consume 3 items
market liquidity 3 items
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nonbank financial institutions 3 items
occasionally binding constraints 3 items
occupations 3 items
on-the-job search 3 items
optimal monetary policy 3 items
option pricing 3 items
postsecondary education 3 items
prepayment 3 items
professional traders 3 items
quantitative tightening 3 items
rational inattention 3 items
regulatory arbitrage 3 items
repo market 3 items
risk premia 3 items
risk taking 3 items
safe haven 3 items
securities lending 3 items
term premiums 3 items
trade finance 3 items
variance risk premium 3 items
variance swaps 3 items
volatility risk 3 items
zero lower bound (ZLB) 3 items
Abbott Districts 2 items
Affordable Care Act 2 items
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Automobiles - Prices 2 items
Balance of payments 2 items
Bank employees 2 items
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Banks and banking - Service charges 2 items
Bayesian methods 2 items
Bayesian model averaging 2 items
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