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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of New York  Series:Research Paper 

Returns on capital assets and variations in economic growth and volatility: a model of Bayesian learning

Research Paper , Paper 9128

Judging the risk of banks: what makes banks opaque?

We argue that the risk of banks is hard for outsiders to judge because the risk of their mostly financial assets is either hard to measure (opaque) or easy to change. We report evidence that bond rating agencies seem to disagree more over banks than over other types of firms. Among banks, bond raters disagree more over opaque assets, like loans, and easily substitutable assets, like cash and trading assets. Fixed assets, like premises, reduce disagreement. Capital also reduces disagreement, but only at trading banks, where the risk of asset shifting may be most severe.
Research Paper , Paper 9805

Federal grants during the eighties

Federal grants policy changed significantly during the eighties. Grants to states and localities decreased as a share of GDP, the first sustained decline in aid since the forties. Restrictions on the use of federal funds were eased with the conversion of categorical matching aid programs into unconditional block grants. At the same time, aid to individuals rose at the expense of other major grants categories. Taken together, these changes in federal grants tended to decrease state and local government investment in physical and human capital. I estimate that the decline in federal grants for ...
Research Paper , Paper 9508

Managing exchange rates: the experience of the European monetary system

Research Paper , Paper 8814

Industry restructuring measures and productivity: evidence from the 1980s

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between corporate restructuring and productivity. We estimate neoclassical production functions and factor demand functions to analyze the importance of restructuring in improving resource allocation and productivity. We find, at most, restructuring may have spurred the substitution of capital for labor in some industries, helping to set the stage for increased labor productivity. However, there is little evidence that restructurings, themselves, aided in the improvement of true technological progress.
Research Paper , Paper 9509

Changes in the U.S. cycle: shifts in capital spending and balance sheet changes

Research Paper , Paper 9224

Do better schools matter? Parental valuation of elementary education

The evaluation of numerous school reforms requires an understanding of the value parents place on school quality. I use house prices to infer this value, where school quality is proxied by elementary school test scores. I do so by looking within school districts at houses located on attendance district boundaries; I am then comparing houses that differ along only one dimension: the elementary school the child attends. I thereby effectively remove the variation in neighborhood characteristics, property tax rates, and school spending. I find that parents are willing to pay 2.5% more for a 5% ...
Research Paper , Paper 9729

The growth of world trade

The growth in the trade share of output is one of the most important features of the world economy since World War II. We show that an important propagation mechanism for this growth is vertical specialization. Simply put, vertical specialization occurs when imported inputs are used to produce goods that are then exported. We show that many of the standard trade models - the Ricardian model, the monopolistic competition model, and the international real business cycle models - cannot explain the growth in trade unless very high elasticities of demand and substitution are assumed. We then use ...
Research Paper , Paper 9718

The supply side consequences of U.S. fiscal policy in the 1980s

Research Paper , Paper 9129

The shifting term structure of interest rates

Research Paper , Paper 8613




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