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Discussion Paper
Do You Know How Your Treasury Trades Are Cleared and Settled?
Mithal, Radhika; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J.; Copeland, Adam (2018-09-12)
The Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG) recently released a consultative white paper on clearing and settlement processes for secondary market trades of U.S. Treasury securities. The paper describes in detail the many ways Treasury trades are cleared and settled? information that may not be readily available to all market participants?and identifies potential risk and resiliency issues. The work is designed to facilitate discussion as to whether current practices have room for improvement. In this post, we summarize the current state of clearing and settlement for secondary market Treasury ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180912

Discussion Paper
Preemptive Runs and the Offshore U.S. Dollar Money Market Funds Industry
Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele (2021-11-22)
In March 2020, U.S. dollar-denominated prime money market funds (MMFs) suffered heavy outflows as concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic increased in the United States and Europe. Investors redeemed their shares en masse not only from funds domiciled in the United States (“domestic”) but also from offshore funds. In this post, we use differences in the regulatory regimes of domestic and offshore funds to identify the impact of the redemption gates and liquidity fees recently introduced as part of MMF industry reforms in both the United States and Europe.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211122

Discussion Paper
Puerto Rico's Shrinking Labor Force Participation
Wheeler, Harry; Bram, Jason (2016-08-10)
A key concern about Puerto Rico?s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed to any particular demographic segment. Instead, it is the consequence of an aging population, accelerated by a falling birth rate and outmigration of a relatively young cohort. Expected demographic trends will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate over the medium term, creating a challenging headwind for the economy to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160810

Discussion Paper
Global Asset Prices and Taper Tantrum Revisited
Groen, Jan J. J. (2014-12-08)
Global asset market developments during the summer of 2013 have been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, starting with former Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning future curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs. A previous post found that the signal of a possible change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with an increase in global risk aversion which put downward pressure on global asset prices. This post revisits this episode by measuring the impact of changes in Fed’s expected policy rate path and in the economic outlook on the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141208

Discussion Paper
Central Bank Solvency and Inflation
Del Negro, Marco; Sims, Christopher A. (2015-04-01)
The monetary base in the United States, defined as currency plus bank reserves, grew from about $800 billion in 2008 to $2 trillion in 2012, and to roughly $4 trillion at the end of 2014 (see chart below). Some commentators have viewed this increase in the monetary base as a sure harbinger of inflation. For example, one economist wrote that this “unprecedented expansion of the money supply could make the ’70s look benign.” These predictions of inflation rest on the monetarist argument that nominal income is proportional to the money supply. The fact that the money supply has expanded ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150401

Discussion Paper
The Final Crisis Chronicle: The Panic of 1907 and the Birth of the Fed
Narron, James; Morgan, Donald P. (2016-11-18)
The panic of 1907 was among the most severe we’ve covered in our series and also the most transformative, as it led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System. Also known as the “Knickerbocker Crisis,” the panic of 1907 shares features with the 2007-08 crisis, including “shadow banks” in the form high-flying, less-regulated trusts operating beyond the safety net of the time, and a pivotal “Lehman moment” when Knickerbocker Trust, the second-largest trust in the country, was allowed to fail after J.P. Morgan refused to save it.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161118

Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in COVID-19: Social Distancing, Pollution, and Demographics
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Meyerson, Lindsay (2021-01-12)
This is the third post in a series looking to explain the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and by income. In the first two posts, we have investigated whether comorbidities, uninsurance, hospital resources, and home and transit crowding help explain the income and minority gaps. Here, we continue our investigation by looking at three additional potential channels: the fraction of elderly people, pollution, and social distancing at the beginning of the pandemic in the county. We aim to understand whether these three factors affect overall COVID-19 intensity, whether the income and racial gaps ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210112c

Discussion Paper
Which Dealers Borrowed from the Fed’s Lender-of-Last-Resort Facilities?
Sarkar, Asani; Hrung, Warren B.; Fleming, Michael J.; Acharya, Viral V. (2017-05-10)
During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Fed established lending facilities designed to improve market functioning by providing liquidity to nondepository financial institutions—the first lending targeted to this group since the 1930s. What was the financial condition of the dealers that borrowed from these facilities? Were they healthy institutions behaving opportunistically or were they genuinely distressed? In published research, we find that dealers in a weaker financial condition were more likely to participate than healthier ones and tended to borrow more. Our findings reinforce the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170510

Discussion Paper
Municipal Debt Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Cipriani, Marco; Haughwout, Andrew F.; La Spada, Gabriele; Kovner, Anna; Nee, Shawn; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Hyman, Benjamin (2020-06-29)
In March, with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, the market for municipal securities was severely stressed: mutual fund redemptions sparked unprecedented selling of municipal securities, yields increased sharply, and issuance dried up. In this post, we describe the evolution of municipal bond market conditions since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We show that conditions in municipal markets have improved significantly, in part a result of the announcement and implementation of several Federal Reserve facilities. Yields have decreased substantially, mutual funds ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200629

Discussion Paper
Businesses in the Tri-State Region Struggling to Weather the Coronavirus Outbreak
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2020-03-30)
As a result of the coronavirus outbreak, New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut have closed nonessential businesses and schools and asked residents to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. These actions are unprecedented, and the economic impacts are likely to be temporary but severe, and difficult to track and measure. With conditions changing so rapidly, timely data on the economic impacts of the outbreak and resultant policies on businesses and people are both scarce and important. In this post, we provide some very recent information on the economic effects of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200330a

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