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Discussion Paper
Follow That Money! How Global Banks Manage Liquidity Globally
Goldberg, Linda S.; Cetorelli, Nicola (2012-08-29)
Banks increasingly move money around the world. Over the last thirty years, gross international claims of banks from all countries have grown ten-fold, reaching a peak of about $25 trillion in 2007 (see chart below). Such global banking flows have been much in the news recently, sometimes depicted as a key culprit of the transmission around the globe of the shocks following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and more recently the European sovereign debt crisis. The discourse in the regulatory arena seems to share this sentiment, with a bias towards curbing some of the global banking activity ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120829

Discussion Paper
On Fire-Sale Externalities, TARP Was Close to Optimal
Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Duarte, Fernando M. (2014-04-15)
Imagine that many large and levered banks suffer heavy losses and must quickly sell assets to reduce their leverage. We expect the market price of the assets sold to decline, at least temporarily. As a result, any other financial institutions that happen to hold the same assets will experience balance sheet losses through no fault of their own —a negative fire-sale externality. In this post, we show that the vulnerability to fire-sale externalities was high during the crisis and that the capital injections of the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) helped reduce it ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140415

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Total Household Debt Nears 2008 Peak but Debt Picture Looks Much Different
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-02-16)
The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed?s Center for Microeconomic Data showed a substantial increase in aggregate household debt balances in the fourth quarter of 2016 and for the year as a whole. As of December 31, 2016, total household debt stood at $12.58 trillion, an increase of $226 billion (or 1.8 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. Total household debt is now just 0.8 percent ($99 billion) below its third quarter 2008 peak of $12.68 trillion, and 12.8 percent above the second quarter 2013 trough. But debt looks very different in 2016 than it ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170216

Discussion Paper
A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
Tambalotti, Andrea; Giannoni, Marc; Gupta, Abhi; Giannone, Domenico; Li, Pearl; Del Negro, Marco (2018-02-07)
The preceding two posts in this series documented that interest rates on safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, have declined significantly in the past twenty years. Of course, short-term interest rates in the United States are under the control of the Federal Reserve, at least in nominal terms. So it is legitimate to ask, To what extent is this decline driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy? This post addresses this question by coupling the results presented in the previous post with those obtained from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180207

Discussion Paper
The International Spillover of U.S. Monetary Policy via Global Production Linkages
di Giovanni, Julian (2021-01-06)
The recent era of globalization has witnessed growing cross-country trade integration as firms’ production chains have spread across the world, and with stock market returns becoming more correlated across countries. While research has predominantly focused on how financial integration impacts the propagation of shocks across international financial markets, trade also influences these cross-border spillovers. In particular, one important aspect, highlighted by the recent work of di Giovanni and Hale (2020), is how the global production network influences the transmission of U.S. monetary ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210106

Discussion Paper
Primary Dealer Participation in the Secondary U.S. Treasury Market
Keane, Frank M.; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2016-02-12)
The recent Joint Staff Report on October 15, 2014, exploring an episode of unprecedented volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, revealed that primary dealers no longer account for most trading volume on the interdealer brokerage (IDB) platforms. This shift is noteworthy because dealers contribute to long-term liquidity provision via their willingness to hold positions across days. However, a large share of Treasury security trading occurs elsewhere, in the dealer-to-customer (DtC) market. In this post, we show that primary dealers maintain a majority share of secondary market trading volume ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160212

Discussion Paper
U.S. Exporters Could Face High Tariffs without NAFTA
Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline L. (2017-04-17)
An underappreciated benefit of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the protection it offers U.S. exporters from extreme tariff uncertainty in Mexico. U.S. exporters have not only gained greater tariff preferences under NAFTA than Mexican exporters gained in the United States, they have also been exempt from potential tariff hikes facing other exporters. Mexico’s bound tariff rates—the maximum tariff rate a World Trade Organization (WTO) member can impose—are very high and far exceed U.S. bound rates. Without NAFTA, there is a risk that tariffs on U.S. exports to Mexico ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170417

Discussion Paper
Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations
Middeldorp, Menno; Groen, Jan J. J. (2013-08-21)
Central bankers closely monitor inflation expectations because they?re an important determinant of actual inflation. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are commonly used to measure bond market inflation expectations. Unfortunately, they were only introduced in 1997, so historical data are limited. We propose a solution to this problem by using the relationship between TIPS yields and other data with a longer history to construct synthetic TIPS rates going back to 1971.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130821

Discussion Paper
Upstate New York Job Growth: The Bad News Is that the Good News Was Wrong
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2016-03-25)
In 2015, upstate New York looked to be having its strongest job growth in years. Employment was estimated to be growing at around one percent—below the national pace, but twice the region's trend growth rate since the end of the Great Recession. Buffalo, in particular, looked to be gaining significant numbers of construction and manufacturing jobs for the first time in decades, pushing it to its highest job growth since the late 1990s. Unfortunately, the good news was wrong. Annual benchmark revisions to New York State's employment data released in early March cut upstate's growth rate in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160325

Discussion Paper
The Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Productivity throughout the Supply Chain
Agwam, Victoria E.; Azar, Pablo; Frye, Kyra (2021-09-27)
While the shocks from COVID-19 were concentrated in a handful of contact-intensive industries, they had rippling effects throughout the economy, which culminated in a considerable decline in U.S. GDP. In this post, we estimate how much of the fall in U.S. GDP during the pandemic was driven by spillover effects from the productivity losses of contact-intensive industries.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210927

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