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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

Journal Article
Disclosure, volatility, and transparency: and empirical investigation into the value of bank disclosure

The authors suggests that banks that are more forthcoming on basic balance-sheet items exhibit lower stock price volatility. About 600 banks in thirty-one countries over the 1993-2000 period are covered. The authors find that higher values of their disclosure index are associated with significantly lower stock return volatility and that volatility is also negatively associated with most of the individual items in the index, and conclude that increased disclosure may benefit bankers and bank supervisors.
Economic Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-45

Journal Article
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue May , Pages 97-111

Discussion Paper
Measuring Settlement Fails

In June 2014, settlement fails of U.S. Treasury securities reached their highest level since the implementation of the Treasury fails charge in May 2009, attracting significant attention from market participants. In this post, we review what fails are, why they are of interest, and how they can be measured. In a companion post following this one, we evaluate the particular circumstances of the June 2014 fails.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140919b

Discussion Paper
Market Liquidity after the Financial Crisis

The possible adverse effects of regulation on market liquidity in the post-crisis period continue to garner significant attention. In a recent paper, we update and unify much of our earlier work on the subject, following up on three series of earlier Liberty Street Economics posts in August 2015, October 2015, and February 2016. We find that dealer balance sheets have continued to stagnate and that various measures point to less abundant funding liquidity. Nonetheless, we do not find clear evidence of a widespread deterioration in market liquidity.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170628

Discussion Paper
The U.S. Dollar's Global Roles: Where Do Things Stand?

Previous Liberty Street Economics analysis and New York Fed research addressed the potential implications for the United States if the dollar’s global role changed, noting that the currency might not retain its dominance forever. This post checks the status of the dollar, considering whether any erosion in the dollar’s international standing has occurred. The evidence to date is that the dollar remains the world’s dominant currency by broad margins. Alternatives have not gained extensive traction, albeit this does not rule out potential future pressures.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190211

Report
Returns on capital assets and variations in economic growth and volatility: a model of Bayesian learning

Research Paper , Paper 9128

Speech
Asset bubbles and the implications for central bank policy

Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 21

Report
Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment

This paper studies the determinants of college major choice using an experimentally generated panel of beliefs, obtained by providing students with information on the true population distribution of various major-specific characteristics. Students logically revise their beliefs in response to the information, and their subjective beliefs about future major choice are associated with beliefs about their own earnings and ability. We estimate a rich model of college major choice using the panel of beliefs data. While expected earnings and perceived ability are a significant determinant of major ...
Staff Reports , Paper 500

Report
DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery

The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters. Unlike other deep downturns, this recession was not followed by a swift recovery, but generated a sizable and persistent output gap that was not accompanied by deflation as a traditional Phillips curve relationship would have predicted. Moreover, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy generated an unprecedented policy environment. We document the real real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model during this period and explain the results using ...
Staff Reports , Paper 844

Report
Endogenous productivity and development accounting

Cross-country data reveal that the per capita incomes of the richest countries exceed those of the poorest countries by a factor of thirty-five. We formalize a model with embodied technical change in which newer, more productive vintages of capital coexist with older, less productive vintages. A reduction in the cost of investment raises both the quantity and productivity of capital simultaneously. The model induces a simple relationship between the relative price of investment goods and per capita income. Using cross-country data on the prices of investment goods, we find that the model does ...
Staff Reports , Paper 258

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