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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

Report
Credit derivatives and bank credit supply

Credit derivatives are the latest in a series of innovations that have had a significant impact on credit markets. Using a micro data set of individual corporate loans, this paper explores whether use of credit derivatives is associated with an increase in bank credit supply. The author finds evidence that greater use of credit derivatives is associated with greater supply of bank credit for large term loans--newly negotiated loan extensions to large corporate borrowers--though not for (previously negotiated) commitment lending. This finding suggests that the benefits of the growth of credit ...
Staff Reports , Paper 276

Report
Evaluating interest rate rules in an estimated DSGE model

The empirical DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) literature pays surprisingly little attention to the behavior of the monetary authority. Alternative policy rule specifications abound, but their relative merit is rarely discussed. We contribute to filling this gap by comparing the fit of a large set of interest rate rules (fifty-five in total), which we estimate within a simple New Keynesian model. We find that specifications in which monetary policy responds to inflation and to deviations of output from its efficient level?the one that would prevail in the absence of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 510

Report
Precarious slopes? The Great Recession, federal stimulus, and New Jersey schools

While sparse literature exists investigating the impact of the Great Recession on various sectors of the economy, there is virtually no research that studies the effect of the Great Recession, or past recessions, on schools. This paper starts to fill the void. Studying school funding during the recession is of paramount importance because schools have a fundamental role in fostering human capital formation and economic growth. We exploit unique panel-data and trend-shift analysis to analyze how New Jersey school finances were affected during the Great Recession and the ARRA federal stimulus ...
Staff Reports , Paper 538

Report
Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?

Various methods are available to extract the "business cycle component" of a given time series variable. These methods may be derived as solutions to frequency extraction or signal extraction problems and differ in both their handling of trends and noise and their assumptions about the ideal time-series properties of a business cycle component. The filters are frequently illustrated by application to white noise, but applications to other processes may have very different and possibly unintended effects. This paper examines several frequently used filters as they apply to a range of dynamic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 289

Report
Option-implied term structures

This paper proposes a nonparametric sieve regression framework for pricing the term structure of option spanning portfolios. The framework delivers closed-form, nonparametric option pricing and hedging formulas through basis function expansions that grow with the sample size. Novel confidence intervals quantify term structure estimation uncertainty. The framework is applied to estimating the term structure of variance risk premia and finds that a short-run component dominates market excess return predictability. This finding is inconsistent with existing asset pricing models that seek to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 706

Report
Overnight RRP operations as a monetary policy tool: some design considerations

We review recent changes in monetary policy that have led to development and testing of an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility, an innovative tool for implementing monetary policy during the normalization process. Making ON RRPs available to a broad set of investors, including nonbank institutions that are significant lenders in money markets, could complement the use of the interest on excess reserves (IOER) and help control short-term interest rates. We examine some potentially important secondary effects of an ON RRP facility, both positive and negative, including ...
Staff Reports , Paper 712

Report
Is the integration of world asset markets necessarily beneficial in the presence of monetary shocks?

This paper evaluates the consequences of the integration of international asset markets when goods markets are characterized by price rigidities. Using an open economy general equilibrium model with volatility in the money markets, we show that such an integration is not universally beneficial. The country with the more volatile shocks will benefit whereas the country where the volatility of shocks is moderate will suffer. The welfare effects reflect changes in the terms of trade that occur because forward looking price setters adjust to the changes in exchange rate volatility brought about ...
Staff Reports , Paper 114

Report
The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the ?FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)? for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying ...
Staff Reports , Paper 672

Report
Bank holding company dividends and repurchases during the financial crisis

Many large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) continued to pay dividends during the 2007-09 financial crisis, even as financial market conditions deteriorated, large losses accumulated, and emergency capital and liquidity were being provided by the official sector. In contrast, share repurchases by these BHCs dropped sharply in the early part of the crisis. Documenting this divergent behavior is one of the key contributions of this paper. The paper also examines the role that repurchases played in large BHCs? decisions to reduce or eliminate dividends. The key findings are that smaller BHCs ...
Staff Reports , Paper 666

Report
Towards new open economy macroeconometrics

I develop a model that improves upon the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics in that it lends itself more directly to empirical investigation. I solve the stationarity problem that characterizes many existing models by adopting an overlapping generations structure la Weil (1989). I model nominal rigidity by assuming that firms face explicit costs of output price inflation volatility. The specification generates an endogenous markup that fluctuates over the business cycle. I identify the two economies in my model with Canada--a small open economy--and the United States--taken as ...
Staff Reports , Paper 100

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