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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis  Series:Quarterly Review 

Journal Article
District conditions / a midyear report

Quarterly Review , Volume 7 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely

This paper reports an optimistic forecast of U.S. output and inflation trends in 1990_91. Generated by a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model of the U.S. economy using data available on November 30, 1989, the forecast is more optimistic than a consensus forecast. The key to the model's greater optimism for real growth is its outlook for strong consumer spending. The model's optimism is defended by examining historical precedents as well as comparing the track records of the model and consensus forecasts. The model's measures of forecast uncertainty, however, suggest that its ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 19-26

Journal Article
Explaining the demand for free bank notes

Quarterly Review , Volume 12 , Issue Spr , Pages 21-35

Journal Article
Collaboration and Female Representation in Academic Fields

Women are well represented in some academic fields but notably underrepresented in others, including many STEM fields. Motivated by studies that show collaboration is more attractive to women than men, we investigate whether female participation across academic fields is related to how collaborative those fields are. Using panel data for 30 academic fields from 1975 to 2014, we find that one additional author on the average paper published in a field is associated with an increase of 2.5 percentage points in the female share of PhD recipients. This estimate implies that about 30 percent of ...
Quarterly Review , Issue September , Pages 2-21

Journal Article
Theory ahead of business cycle measurement

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 9-22

Journal Article
Learning to be unpredictable : an experimental study.

This study tests experimentally whether the ability of subjects to play a noncooperative game's mixed-strategy equilibrium (to make their play unpredictable) is affected by how much information subjects have about the structure of the game. Subjects played the mixed-strategy equilibrium when they had all the information about other players' payoffs and actions, but not otherwise. Previous research has shown that players of a game can play a mixed-strategy equilibrium if they observe the actions of all players and use sophisticated Bayesian learning to infer the likely payoffs to other ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 24 , Issue Spr , Pages 14-20

Journal Article
District conditions

Quarterly Review , Volume 4 , Issue Sum

Journal Article
Money

This essay, written around 1779, challenges the simple quantity theory of money. From the perspective of the paper money issued to pay for American's Revolutionary War--bills of credit, or continentals -- the essay rejects the idea that the value of money is determined by the number of pieces of paper issued. That idea ignores the fact that an individual nation is just a small part of the world economy. More relevant than quantity, the essay argues, are two other features: the date the government promises to exchange the pieces of paper for specie and the credibility of that promise. This ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 21 , Issue Fall , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
A case for variable rate mortgages

Quarterly Review , Volume 3 , Issue Win

Journal Article
District conditions

Quarterly Review , Volume 4 , Issue Win

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