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Discussion Paper
Individual heterogeneity and interindustry wage differentials
Keane, Michael P. (1991)
Estimates of interindustry wage differentials are obtained using a fixed-effects estimator on a long panel, the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men (NLS). After controlling for observable worker characteristics, 84 percent of the residual variance of log wages across industries is explained by individual fixed-effects. Only 16 percent of the residual variance is explained by industry dummies. Since no controls for specific job characteristics are used, job characteristics that vary across industries could potentially explain this rather small residual across-industry log wage variance ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 54

Discussion Paper
Comparisons of alternative identification schemes for the U.S. real GNP- unemployment level correlation: sensitivity analysis
Aoki, Masanao (1989)
The paper employs three different types of identifying restrictions to calculate the impulse responses for the trivariate series composed of the U.S. unemployment level, real GNP and the money stock. The first two are the zero restrictions, arising from the assumption of the delayed information pattern available in forming a money reaction function. The third assumes a particular simplified structural model. The paper shows that the impulse response patterns are generally insensitive to these alternative specifications. Similar exercises are carried out for the bivariate series composed of ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 21

Discussion Paper
Productive externalities and business cycles
King, Robert G.; Baxter, Marianne (1991)
This paper begins with the observation that the volatility of factor input growth is insufficient to explain the volatility in the growth rate of output, and explores the empirical plausibility of the hypothesis that this fact is due to the presence of productive externalities and increasing returns to scale. We construct a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model which incorporates these features, and allows for demand shocks operating at the level of the consumer. We employ the method of Hall (1986) and Parkin (1988) to measure these demand shocks, and use these measured disturbances to ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 53

Discussion Paper
Sectoral shift theories of unemployment: evidence from panel data
Keane, Michael P. (1990)
This paper examines the response of sectoral real wages and location probabilities to oil price shocks using U.S. micro-panel data (the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men). The goal is to determine whether the observed response patterns are consistent with so-called sectoral shift theories of unemployment. These theories predict that shocks that change sectoral relative wages should increase unemployment in the short run and lead to labor reallocation in the long run. Consistent with these predictions, the oil price changes of the 1970s resulted in substantial movements in industry ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 28

Discussion Paper
The efficiency and welfare effects of tax reform: are fewer tax brackets better than more?
Carlstrom, Charles T.; Altig, David E. (1992)
Using the well-known dynamic fiscal policy framework pioneered by Auerbach and Kotlikoff, we examine the efficiency and welfare implications of shifting from a linear marginal tax rate structure to a discrete rate structure characterized by two regions of flat tax rates of 15 and 28 percent. For a wide range of parameter values, we find that there is no sequence of lump-sum transfers that the (model) government can feasibly implement to make the shift from the linear to the discrete structure Pareto-improving. We conclude that the worldwide trend toward replacing rate structures having many ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 78

Discussion Paper
The equity premium and the allocation of income risk
Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Donaldson, John B.; Mehra, Rajnish (1992)
This paper examines the extent to which the equity premium puzzle can be resolved by taking account of the fact that stockholders bear a disproportionate share of output uncertainty. We do this in the context of a non-Walrasian RBC model where risk reallocation is justified by borrowing restrictions. The risk shifting mechanism we propose has the same effect as would arise from a substantial increase in the risk aversion parameter of the representative agent. As with more standard RBC models, it remains that our model is unable to replicate key financial statistics. In particular, the ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 60

Discussion Paper
The replacement problem
Yorukoglu, Mehmet; Greenwood, Jeremy; Cooley, Thomas F. (1994)
We construct a vintage capital model of economic growth in which the decision to replace old technologies with new ones is modeled explicitly. Depreciation in this environment is an economic, not a physical concept. We describe the balanced growth paths and the transitional dynamics of this economy. We illustrate the importance of vintage capital by analyzing the response of the economy to fiscal policies designed to stimulate investment in new technologies.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 95

Discussion Paper
Employment and business cycle asymmetries: a data based study
Pfann, Gerard A. (1991)
Does the magnitude of a trough in employment differ from the magnitude of a peak in employment, and is the time employment spends in rising from a trough to a peak longer than the time spends in falling from a peak to a trough? In this paper we measure the asymmetry of magnitudes and the asymmetry of durations of seven US postwar employment series. The series are detrended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter prior to the analysis. Appropriate measurements of the two types of asymmetry are the skewness of the detrended series and the skewness of the first differenced detrended series, ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 39

Discussion Paper
Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories
Evans, Charles L.; Braun, R. Anton (1991)
Barksy-Miron [1989] find that the postwar U.S. economy exhibits a regular seasonal cycle, as well as the business cycle phenomenon. Are these findings consistent with current equilibrium business cycle theories as surveyed by Prescott [1986]? We consider a dynamic, stochastic equilibrium business cycle model which includes deterministic seasonals and nontime-separable preferences. We show how to compute a perfect foresight seasonal equilibrium path for this economy. An approximation to the stochastic equilibrium is calculated. Using postwar U.S. data, GMM estimates of the structural ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 45

Discussion Paper
Structural changes in the real GNP interdependence of the U.S., West Germany, and Japan during the period 1970-1986
Aoki, Masanao (1989)
The paper first locates quarters in the early 1970s at which the covariance matrices of the innovation vectors have shifted for the real GNPs of the USA, West Germany and Japan treated as univariate series. The paper then exhibits differences in the impulse response time profiles of the two models estimated from the data primarily before and after the break as a concise summary of the changes in dynamic interactions of the three real GNPs.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 20

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