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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis  Series:Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 

Discussion Paper
Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study

We study the existence and robustness of expectationally-driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies. In the theoretical model under study there exist pure sunspot equilibria which can be learned if agents use some adaptive learning rules. Our data show the existence of expectationally-driven cycles, but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and learned a real cycle. In this sense, we show evidence of path-dependent price volatility.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 73

Discussion Paper
The real business cycle: intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement

We describe the postwar U.S. business cycle for the durable and nondurable goods producing sector. The business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of output, employment, and investment across the two sectors. We develop a two sector growth model to explain the observed pattern of comovements, and suggest that intermediate inputs produced by the nondurable goods sector for the durable goods sector play a crucial role.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 89

Discussion Paper
Understanding why high income households save more than low income households

This paper investigates why high income households in the United States save on average more than low income households in cross-section data. The three explanations considered are (1) age differences across households, (2) temporary earnings shocks, and (3) the structure of transfer payments. We use a calibrated life-cycle model to evaluate the quantitative importance of these explanations and find that age and the structure of transfers are quantitatively important in producing the cross-section pattern of United States savings rates. Temporary shocks are of secondary importance.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 106

Discussion Paper
Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption

This paper empirically investigates the restrictions embodied in a popular dynamic monetary model for the cross relations between consumption, money holdings, inflation and assets returns using quarterly data for the high-inflation economy in Israel, 19701988. The model considered includes money in agents utility function. A set of the estimated parameters is used in the analysis to assess the models quantitative implications for seigniorage and for the welfare costs of inflation. The estimates are found to account well for the observed stability over time of seigniorage in Israel and imply ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 40

Discussion Paper
Cyclical factor utilization

We introduce procyclical labor and capital utilization, as well as costs of rapidly increasing employment, into a business-cycle model. Plausible variations in factor utilization enable us to explain observed variability of real GNP with considerably smaller economy-wide disturbances. The costs of adjustment create very interesting and realistic lead and lag relationships: Employment does not peak until a full quarter after output; workweeks, effort, capital utilization, and productivity all sharply lead the business cycle.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 79

Discussion Paper
Minimum weighted residual methods for solving aggregate growth models

Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 49

Discussion Paper
Comparisons of alternative identification schemes for the U.S. real GNP- unemployment level correlation: sensitivity analysis

The paper employs three different types of identifying restrictions to calculate the impulse responses for the trivariate series composed of the U.S. unemployment level, real GNP and the money stock. The first two are the zero restrictions, arising from the assumption of the delayed information pattern available in forming a money reaction function. The third assumes a particular simplified structural model. The paper shows that the impulse response patterns are generally insensitive to these alternative specifications. Similar exercises are carried out for the bivariate series composed of ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 21

Discussion Paper
The social discount rate

In welfare theory it is standard to pick the consumption stream that maximizes the welfare of the representative agent. We argue against this position, and show that a benevolent social planner will generally place a greater weight on future consumption than does the representative agent.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 137

Discussion Paper
NAFTA and Mexican development

Using a calibrated growth model, the dynamic effects of NAFTA on Mexican development are studied. Two scenarios are analyzed. In the first, NAFTA is assumed to stimulate inflows of physical capital into Mexico. These inflows reduce the interest rate and raise the wage rates for both skilled and unskilled labor. The skilled wage rises more sharply, however, increasing the skill premium and rapidly accelerating the accumulation of human capital. In the second scenario, NAFTA is assumed to have the effect of fully integrating Mexico with the U.S. and Canada. Integration also reduces the interest ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 108

Discussion Paper
The equity premium: it's still a puzzle

The paper examines the literature that attempts to resolve the equity premium and riskfree rate puzzles. It demonstrates that the puzzles will confront any model of asset prices that relies on three crucial assumptions: preferences have a particular parametric form, asset markets are complete, and asset trade is frictionless. A survey of the literature that relaxes these assumptions reveals that there are now several plausible explanations of the seemingly low riskfree rate, but the large size of the equity premium remains a puzzle.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 102

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