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Working Paper
The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s
White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured as a one-time asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.
AUTHORS: Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Yang, Fang
DATE: 2019-03-18

Working Paper
Optimal Social Insurance and Rising Labor Market Risk
This paper analyzes the optimal response of the social insurance system to a rise in labor market risk. To this end, we develop a tractable macroeconomic model with risk-free physical capital, risky human capital (labor market risk) and unobservable effort choice affecting the distribution of human capital shocks (moral hazard). We show that constrained optimal allocations are simple in the sense that they can be found by solving a static social planner problem. We further show that constrained optimal allocations are the equilibrium allocations of a market economy in which the government uses taxes and transfers that are linear in household wealth/income. We use the tractability result to show that an increase in labor market (human capital) risk increases social welfare if the government adjusts the tax-and-transfer system optimally. Finally, we provide a quantitative analysis of the secular rise in job displacement risk in the US and find that the welfare cost of not adjusting the social insurance system optimally can be substantial.
AUTHORS: Krebs, Tom; Scheffel, Martin
DATE: 2019-02-01

Report
Are banks special?
AUTHORS: Corrigan, E. Gerald
DATE: 1982

Report
Economic prosperity: an eclectic view
AUTHORS: Corrigan, E. Gerald
DATE: 1983

Report
Formulating a consistent approach to monetary policy
1995 Annual Report essay
AUTHORS: Stern, Gary H.
DATE: 1996

Report
Meeting the challenges of a new banking era
AUTHORS: Carroll, Evelyn F.; Corrigan, E. Gerald
DATE: 1981

Report
A new law, a new era
AUTHORS: Corrigan, E. Gerald
DATE: 1980

Report
The transition to low inflation: progress and pressures
AUTHORS: Stern, Gary H.
DATE: 1984

Report
Playing by the rules: a proposal for federal budget reform
AUTHORS: Chari, V. V.; Miller, Preston J.
DATE: 1990

Report
The Industrial Revolution: past and future
"We live in a world of staggering and unprecedented income inequality," writes Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas in the 2003 annual report essay. Lucas goes on to use economic history to frame explanations and present possible solutions to this global quandary.
AUTHORS: Lucas, Robert E.
DATE: 2004

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