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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Discussion Paper
Self-fulfilling Prophecies in Sovereign Debt Markets

In this paper, we discuss conditions under which adverse expectations can trigger abrupt and large changes in the interest rate at which a sovereign country can borrow in international financial markets. We argue that such changes are caused by self-fulfilling expectations outcomes, in which interest rates are high because the perceptions of future defaults are high, but those perceptions are high precisely because the interest rates are high. {{p}} A model based on these elements successfully simulates the near-default experience of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, among other countries. ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 16-8

Report
Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Inflation expectations have recently received increased interest because of the uncertainty created by the Federal Reserve?s unprecedented reaction to the Great Recession. The effect of this reaction on the real economy is also an important topic. In this paper I use various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations ? inflation expectations at any horizon from 3 to 120 months ? and an associated term structure of real interest rates. Inflation expectations extracted from this model track actual (ex-post) realizations of inflation quite well, and in terms of forecast ...
Staff Report , Paper 502

Report
Slow Convergence in Economies with Organization Capital

Most firms begin very small, and large firms are the result of typically decades of persistent growth. This growth can be understood as the result of some form of organization capital accumulation. In the US, the distribution of firm size k has a right tail only slightly thinner than 1/k. This is shown to imply that incumbent firms account for most aggregate organization capital accumulation. And it implies potentially extremely slow aggregate convergence rates. A benchmark model is proposed in which managers can use incumbent organization capital to create new organization capital. Workers ...
Staff Report , Paper 585

Report
Malthus to Solow

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modern industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. We use a standard growth model with one good and two available technologies. The first, denoted the Malthus technology, requires land, labor, and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the Solow technology, does ...
Staff Report , Paper 257

Discussion Paper
Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles

This paper studies a version of the neoclassical growth model where heterogeneous establishments are subject to partial irreversibilities in investment. Under such investment technology, the optimal decision rules of establishments are of the (S,s) variety. A novel contribution of the paper is the analysis of the general equilibrium dynamics arising from aggregate productivity shocks. This is a difficult task given the high dimensionality of the state vector, which includes the distribution of establishments across capital levels and idiosyncratic shocks. The paper overcomes this difficulty ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 115

Discussion Paper
On the dynamic selection of mechanisms for provisions of public projects

This paper describes a dynamic model in which the provision mechanism for a public project is itself the object of locational choice of individuals. Individuals in an ongoing society must choose between a Majority Rule mechanism and a Voluntary Contribution mechanism. Each mechanism determines a funding decision for a local public project which is repeated over time. Generations of individuals asynchronously supercede their parents, creating an entry/exit process that allows individuals with possibly different beliefs to enter society. A self confirming equilibrium (SCE) belief process ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 100

Journal Article
Auction-rate fireworks: Ooh, aah, ouch

Once a useful and sophisticated tool for cheap financing, issuers discover the dark side of more exotic bonds.
Fedgazette , Volume 20 , Issue Nov , Pages 7-8

Journal Article
The shipping news & forecast

District ports face many competitive challenges, but whether they sink or swim over the long term will likely depend on infrastructure improvements.
Fedgazette , Volume 15 , Issue Jan , Pages 12-15

Working Paper
Disparities and Mitigation Behavior during COVID-19

This paper uses a unique large-scale survey administered in April 2020 to assess disparities on several dimensions of wellbeing under rising COVID-19 infections and mitigation restrictions in the US. The survey includes three modules designed to assess different dimensions of well-being in parallel: physical health, mental and social health, and economic and financial security. The survey is unique among early COVID-19 data efforts in that provides insight on diverse dimensions of wellbeing and for subnational geographies. I find dramatic declines in wellbeing from pre-COVID baseline measures ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 32

Journal Article
Deregulating commercial banks: the watchword should be caution

Quarterly Review , Volume 5 , Issue Spr / Sum

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