How much of the fall in inflation can be explained by energy and import prices?
A. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain
The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit
Troy Davig and Michael Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit.
Consumer Price Inflation and Rising Rents in the West
Rising home rents in four western metros have increasingly boosted consumer price inflation.
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit
Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
The Limited Supply of Homes
Jordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.
The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit
Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.