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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  Series:Macro Bulletin 

Journal Article
Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?

Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy?s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
The Fiscal Stance of U.S. States

We study the fiscal stance of U.S. states through the lens of state reserve funds. We find that the overall rainy day and unemployment insurance funds have largely recovered since the start of the Great Recession but at an uneven pace across states. More importantly, we find that states are better prepared to meet their own budgetary shortfalls in the event of a downturn than the shortfalls of households.
Macro Bulletin , Issue November 28, 2018 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000

The labor share of income declined sharply in the United States from 2000 to 2010 but seems to have stabilized since 2010. We examine aggregate trends in the labor share and show that the 2000?10 decline was driven by declines in the fraction of income paid to workers in all industries. The stabilization in the labor share after 2010 mostly reflects an increased share of services industries income paid to workers.
Macro Bulletin , Issue December 6, 2018 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Wage Leaders and Laggards: Decomposing the Growth in Average Hourly Earnings

Wage growth has accelerated gradually over the past two years, largely due to a pickup in wage growth in a few industries ? the wage leaders. {{p}} Another, larger group of industries ? the wage laggards ? has not contributed at all to the acceleration. But the wage laggards have seen relatively strong growth in hours worked over the past two years, indicating rising labor demand that could lead to a further acceleration in overall wage growth.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
What's Driving Leveraged Loan Spreads?

Syndicated loan spreads have declined since the financial crisis, reducing the cost of credit for corporate borrowers. However, the combination of aggressive loan pricing and weaker credit protections has concerned market observers. We find that syndicated loan spreads have declined across loan and borrower types since the crisis. We also find the decline has been more pronounced for highly leveraged borrowers and has accelerated since 2016, especially for term loans.
Macro Bulletin , Issue February 27, 2019 , Pages 1-5

Journal Article
Opportunity knocks: improved matching of jobs and workers

Tzemen and Willis illustrate that over the past year, workers found jobs more closely matched to their educational attainment.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Estimating the monetary policy rule perceived by forecasters

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC?s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Has China’s Growth Reached a Turning Point?

A new measure of China?s economic activity shows its momentum has increased in the first half of the year?however, an analysis of its underlying forces suggests this momentum may not be sustainable. In addition, strength in policy-related variables has been waning, creating additional downside risks to near-term growth.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
China’s slowing housing market and GDP growth.

Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Following the leaders: wage growth of job switchers

Jos Mustre-del-Ro analyzes labor market conditions to find increasing competitive pressures have led to strong wage growth for job switchers.
Macro Bulletin

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