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Journal Article
Characterizing the 2014–16 Slowdown in Investment
Investment growth slowed from 2014 to 2016, a period when the overall economy was expanding. Using a statistical model, the author found a clear evidence that investment growth fluctuates between high and low growth regimes that usually correspond to expansions and recessions. However, during 2014?16, the investment sector experienced an isolated recession within an overall expansion, which is unusual by historical standards.
Journal Article
Consumer debt dynamics : an update
Journal Article
Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?
Journal Article
Changing Credit Profile of Consumers: Aging Versus the Business Cycle
The average consumer credit score reached a record high recently. While some commentators attributed this development to the cyclical rebound from the Great Recession, I find that the changing age distribution of credit applicants also played a significant role. Changes in demographics alone can explain 43 percent of the increase in the average score from 1999:Q1 to 2017:Q2.
Journal Article
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit
Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
Journal Article
The wage cycle and shadow labor supply
Journal Article
Examining the Recent Shift in State and Local Pension Plans to Alternative Investments
State and local pension plans have increasingly turned to alternative investments in recent years. The authors found that this shift appears to be across the board; underfunding only partially explains this shift. In addition, they found that switching to alternative investments does not necessarily increase the volatility of returns.
Journal Article
The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on employment.
Journal Article
Stuck in Part-Time Employment
Although the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons has declined, it is unlikely to return to its pre-recession level in the near future.
Journal Article
The weakened influence of low interest rates on durable goods spending
Despite record-low interest rates, the pace of the current economic recovery has been only moderate. One reason is that the positive impact of lowered interest rates on consumer purchases of durable goods has diminished