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Journal Article
Monetary policy and firm entry and exit
Yoonsoo Lee and Willem Van Zandweghe find unusually accommodative monetary policy reduces the reallocation of capital and workers from exiting firms to new ones, potentially slowing productivity growth.
Journal Article
Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit
Troy Davig and Michael Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit.
Journal Article
The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Journal Article
Are longer-term inflation expectations stable?
Bundick and Hakkio use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.
Journal Article
Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate
The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) uses the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) to measure money market borrowing conditions. But regulatory changes in the United Kingdom will eliminate LIBOR by 2021. We construct a revised financial stress index with a variable that measures the cost of borrowing collateralized by Treasury securities (the Treasury repo rate) instead of LIBOR. {{p}} This revised measure of the KCFSI is highly correlated with the current KCFSI, suggesting the Treasury repo rate can replace LIBOR.
Journal Article
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections
George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.
Journal Article
Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy?s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
Journal Article
Nominal Wage Rigidities and the Future Path of Wage Growth
Wage growth has been modest since the end of the Great Recession, puzzling many market observers and policymakers. Article examines the relationship between wage growth and nominal wage rigidities?the share of workers whose wages have not changed?and find the current pace of wage growth is not historically unusual. The results suggest wage growth may continue on its gradual path as long as the incidence of wage rigidities remains elevated.
Journal Article
What's Driving Leveraged Loan Spreads?
Syndicated loan spreads have declined since the financial crisis, reducing the cost of credit for corporate borrowers. However, the combination of aggressive loan pricing and weaker credit protections has concerned market observers. We find that syndicated loan spreads have declined across loan and borrower types since the crisis. We also find the decline has been more pronounced for highly leveraged borrowers and has accelerated since 2016, especially for term loans.
Journal Article
Why Is Wage Growth So Low?
Real wage growth has been low in recent years despite continued improvement in the labor market. I examine the interaction between productivity growth and unemployment and show that low productivity growth largely accounts for the current low wage growth. If productivity growth were to pick up, the current low unemployment rate would likely strengthen the positive relationship between productivity growth and wage growth.