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Working Paper
Urban Growth Shadows
Does a location's growth benefit or suffer from being geographically close to large economic centers? Spatial proximity may lead to competition and hurt growth, but it may also generate positive spillovers and enhance growth. Using data on U.S. counties and metro areas for the period 1840?2017, we document this tradeoff between urban shadows and urban spillovers. Proximity to large urban centers was negatively associated with growth from 1840 to 1920, and positively associated with growth after 1920. Using a two-city spatial equilibrium model with intra-city and inter-city commuting, we show that the secular evolution of commuting costs can account for this and other observed patterns in the data.
AUTHORS: Cuberes, David; Desmet, Klaus; Rappaport, Jordan
DATE: 2019-11-18
Working Paper
What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?
The expectations hypothesis is a theory of the term structure of interest rates that describes a conventional view of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. According to the expectations hypothesis, bond rates are related to current and expected movements in the policy-controlled rate. However, empirical rejections of the expectations hypothesis are commonplace and lead many to question this description of policy transmission. This paper argues that failure to account for imperfect policy credibility may explain empirical rejections. Empirical rejections may occur even when changing anticipations of future short rates are the primary source of variation in bond rates and the standard term structure transmission channel remains valid.
AUTHORS: Kozicki, Sharon; P.A.Tinsley
DATE: 2001
Conference Paper
Foreword: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 30-Sept 1, 2012
AUTHORS: George, Esther L.
DATE: 2012
Conference Paper
Technology, information production, and market efficiency : commentary
AUTHORS: Ferguson, Roger W.
DATE: 2001
Conference Paper
Europe 1992: some monetary policy issues
AUTHORS: Leigh-Pemberton, Robin
DATE: 1989
Conference Paper
General discussion : the fiscal challenges of population aging : international perspectives
AUTHORS: Feldstein, Martin; Chair
DATE: 2004
Conference Paper
General discussion: setting priorities for long-run growth
AUTHORS: Jose De Gregorio
DATE: 2011
Conference Paper
Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?
AUTHORS: Woodford, Michael
DATE: 1999
Conference Paper
The relationship between trade and currency zones
AUTHORS: Zecchini, Salvatore
DATE: 1991
Conference Paper
Global policy perspectives
AUTHORS: Aziz, Zeti Akhtar
DATE: 2012
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