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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
The case of the \"missing M2.\"

Working Papers , Paper 9202

Working Paper
Expectations and exchange rate dynamics: a state-dependent pricing approach

We introduce elements of state-dependent pricing and strategic complementarity into an otherwise standard New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model. Relative to previous NOEM works, there are new implications for the dynamics of real and nominal economic activity: complementarity in the timing of price adjustment alters an open economy's response to monetary disturbances. Using a two-country Producer-Currency-Pricing environment, our framework replicates key international features following a domestic monetary expansion: (i) a delayed surge in inflation across countries, (ii) a delayed ...
Working Papers , Paper 0604

Working Paper
The poor, the rich and the enforcer: institutional choice and growth

We study economies where improving the quality of institutions ? modeled as improving contract enforcement ? requires resources, but enables trade that raises output by reducing the dispersion of marginal products of capital. We find that in this type of environment it is optimal to combine institutional building with endowment redistribution, and that more ex-ante dispersion in marginal products increases the incentives to invest in enforcement. In addition, we show that institutional investments lead over time to a progressive reduction in inequality. Finally, the framework we describe ...
Working Papers , Paper 0801

Working Paper
The stock market and monetary policy: the role of macroeconomic states

Working Papers , Paper 9516

Working Paper
The effects of credit availability, nonbank competition, and tax reform on bank consumer lending

Working Papers , Paper 9207

Working Paper
Exchange and interest rate management and the international transmission of disturbances

Working Papers , Paper 8802

Working Paper
Cyclical variation in labor force participation and employment

Working Papers , Paper 8004

Working Paper
Transportation technologies and the optimal depletion of West Coast oil reserves

Working Papers , Paper 8406

Working Paper
Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth?

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Existing estimates of TCJA’s economic impact are based on economic projections using pre-TCJA estimates of tax effects. I exploit plausibly exogenous state-level variation in tax changes from TCJA and find that an income tax cut equaling 1 percent of GDP led to a 1.3 percentage point faster job growth and nearly 1.5 percentage points higher GDP growth. The impact on growth was the strongest in the year of the tax change, with much smaller effects in the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2001

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