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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
Unilateral OECD policies to mitigate global climate change

This article offers an alternative perspective for thinking about climate change policy when the developing countries are not participating. If industrialized countries cooperate with each other to reduce their emissions, but comply at levels below those required under the Kyoto protocol, they will have incentives to adopt policies that are more costly to the world than a carbon tax. These incentives result from terms-of-trade gains that result if conservation lowers world prices lower for fuels the industrialized countries import. We consider cases where the industrialized countries act ...
Working Papers , Paper 0003

Working Paper
Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

Working Papers , Paper 9214

Working Paper
Increasing the efficiency of pooled estimation with a block covariance structure

Working Papers , Paper 8703

Working Paper
A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an ...
Working Papers , Paper 1811

Working Paper
Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity

This paper examines the dynamics of deviations from covered interest parity using daily data on the UK/US spot, forward exchange rates and interest rates over the period January 1974 to September 1993. Like other studies we find a substantial number of instances during the sample in which the covered interest parity condition exceeds the transactions cost band, implying arbitrage profit opportunities. While most of these implied profit opportunities are relatively small, there is also evidence of some very large deviations from covered interest parity in the sample. In order to examine the ...
Working Papers , Paper 9701

Working Paper
Measuring the value of school quality

Working Papers , Paper 9213

Working Paper
Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts

Microeconomic studies keep reporting that the intertemporal substitution in consumption and the Frisch elasticity of aggregate labor supply have significantly lower values than macroeconomic models find consistent with the dynamics of aggregate variables. The paper argues that in the U.S. such dynamics have been influenced since 2013 by the temporary spending cuts imposed by the so-called budget sequestration. The paper exploits the "policy experiment" features of that measure to gauge macroelasticity values from the evidence associated with it, adopting to that effect a macroeconomic model ...
Working Papers , Paper 1412

Working Paper
Transportation technologies and the optimal depletion of West Coast oil reserves

Working Papers , Paper 8406

Working Paper
The development and uses of regional indexes of leading economic indicators

Working Papers , Paper 8808

Working Paper
Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth

We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018. Why have resources not become scarcer as suggested by standard economic theory? We develop a theory of extraction technology, geology and growth grounded in stylized facts. Rising resource demand incentivises firms to invest in new technology to increase their economically extractable reserves. Prices remain constant because increasing returns from the geological distribution of resources offset ...
Working Papers , Paper 1506




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Duca, John V. 40 items

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