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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas  Series:Economic and Financial Policy Review 

Journal Article
Demographics and the long-term outlook for housing investment

John Hill and D'Ann Petersen measure the importance of projected shifts in the size and age distribution of the U.S. population for domestic housing investment. Their analysis runs through the year 2010 and provides separate estimates for single-family and multifamily investment. ; Hill and Petersen find that the contractionary effects of the population slowdown are already being felt in the housing industry and probably have been since the latter part of the 1980s. In Hill and Petersen's simulations, demographic shifts lower net housing investment by 17 percent from the late 1980s through ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 17-25

Journal Article
Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 2-10

Journal Article
Another strong year for the Eleventh District

The Eleventh District marked its eighth year of economic expansion in 1994. Employment grew strongly in all three Eleventh District states- Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas. Although the past prominence of the oil and gas sector is well-known, in 1994 the region prospered despite continued declines in the energy industry. A robust U.S. economy stimulated demand for District manufacturing and service industries, which helped drive the economy. ; Fiona Sigalla surveys the 1994 performance of the Eleventh District economy and finds that a favorable business climate and expanding trade in goods ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q I , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
Pay-as-you-go Social Security and the aging of America: an economic analysis

Because it is a mature pay-as-you-go retirement system, Social Security provides current and future workers with below-market returns. These workers bear the burden of the unfunded liability arising from windfall gains to past retirees. Alan D. Viard uses these principles to examine the effects of three demographic developments: the low birthrate since the baby boom ended in 1965, the impending retirement of the baby boomers, and the downward trend in old-age mortality. The low birthrate reduces Social Securitys long-run rate of return as the unfunded liability is spread across fewer workers. ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review

Journal Article
New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators

New composite indexes presented in this article could prove useful in analyzing and forecasting the Mexican economy. Keith Phillips, Lucinda Vargas, and Victor Zarnowitz present composite indexes of leading and coincident indexes for Mexico. In constructing the indexes, the economists use an approach similar to that developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research to create the composite indexes of U.S. economic activity. The authors classify peaks and troughs in the Mexican business cycle since 1980. Using these business cycle turning points, the authors determine which indicators ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II

Journal Article
\"Tough Love\": implications for redistributive policy

Jason Saving explores the economic and political implications of "tough love" for redistributive policy. The American welfare system unquestionably helps support the least fortunate among us, but, in making poverty less onerous, it may discourage employment among some individuals. Traditional notions of altruism assume that compassion for the poor is measured by one's willingness to redistribute income but to the extent that more generous support for the poor actually encourages recipiency, welfare programs simultaneously mitigate and exacerbate the problem of poverty. A "new ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q III , Pages 25-29

Journal Article
Can mortgage applications help predict home sales?

In this article, John Duca finds that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of home mortgage applications can help forecast home sales. Alone, the index is a good, albeit imperfect, predictor of total home sales. But when included along with housing affordability and real, after-tax mortgage rate data, the index does not add extra information if one disregards differences in data release lags. ; The index is available roughly three to four weeks ahead of the two alternative indicators. Taking into account its greater timeliness, it provides some extra information on home sales beyond ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 21-30

Journal Article
The Texas construction sector: the tail that wagged the dog

The boom-to-bust days of the Texas construction industry will linger in people's memory for many years. D'Ann Petersen, Keith Phillips, and Mine Yucel examine the factors that led to the rise and fall of the Texas construction industry and determine the role the industry played in the state's volatile economy during the 1970s and 1980s. ; Petersen, Phillips, and Yucel employ an econometric model to analyze the roles residential and nonresidential construction played in the state's economic fluctuations from 1976 through 1990. The authors find that, although large swings in oil prices were the ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 23-33

Journal Article
The effect of monetary policy on long-term interest rates: further evidence from an efficient-markets approach

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Mar , Pages 10-16

Journal Article
Financial strategies of top-performance banks in the eleventh district

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Jan , Pages 1-14




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Koenig, Evan F. 15 items

Brown, Stephen P. A. 14 items

Gruben, William C. 14 items

Haslag, Joseph H. 12 items

Phillips, Keith R. 12 items

Yücel, Mine K. 12 items

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