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Journal Article
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting
Grossman, Valerie; Chudik, Alexander; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2016-07)
Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness
Thies, Jackson; Plante, Michael D. (2012-05)
Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
Economic Letter , Volume 7 , Issue 5

Journal Article
Bank Asset Concentration Not Necessarily Cause for Worry
Fernholz, Ricardo T.; Koch, Christoffer (2017-06)
U.S. banking assets have become substantially more concentrated within a few large institutions. However, decreasing relative rates of big-bank growth and of idiosyncratic volatility?an indicator of individual bank susceptibility to shocks and a resulting redistribution of assets?suggest a reduction in systemic financial system risk through contagion.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Relating commodity prices to underlying inflation: the role of expectations
Davis, J. Scott (2011)
Temporary supply factors may boost some commodity prices?a drought in the Midwest can jolt food costs, or a conflict in the Middle East might propel oil higher. These, in turn, can increase the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the headline inflation rate. ; Because central bank anti-inflation measures sometimes take a long time to affect prices, policymakers don?t necessarily react to short-term fluctuations in headline inflation (an overall rate that?s not seasonally adjusted). In fact, the mandate of many inflation-targeting central banks is to aim to keep headline inflation at a ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve
Musatov, Alex; Kapinos, Pavel (2018-06)
For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening?the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt?lasts about a year and is relatively small. After the first year, the impact on large banks? profitability becomes positive; for smaller institutions, it stays negative and becomes larger. Recent yield-curve flattening is likely to more strongly affect smaller banks, reducing their profitability.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 8 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
How labor market policies shape immigrants’ opportunities
Solomon, Genevieve R.; Orrenius, Pia M. (2006)
When it comes to unemployment and labor force participation rates, immigrants do better in the United States than in most other countries. In 2005, for example, the foreign-born had average unemployment of 4.6 percent in the U.S., well below native-born workers? 5.2 percent. U.S. immigrants also had higher participation rates. The American experience stands in stark contrast to many other developed nations?. In France and Germany, for example, the foreign-born typically have jobless rates twice as high as native-born workers and lower participation rates. ; What accounts for these ...
Economic Letter , Volume 1

Journal Article
Integration and globalization: the European bellweather
Saving, Jason L. (2006)
The European Union owes its very existence to the economic integration that defines today?s increasingly global economy. From the ashes of World War II, six core European nations forged a coal-and-steel community designed to foster industrial competitiveness. Over time, the nations realized that a common market would best promote European growth, and the mission gradually broadened to include the general goal of ever-closer union. ; Successive waves of integration raised membership to 15 countries a decade ago, then to 25 today, with Turkey and several other nations eager to join in the near ...
Economic Letter , Volume 1 , Pages 1-8

Journal Article
Seeking stability: what's next for banking regulation?
Cociuba, Simona E. (2009)
Despite improvements over the years, capital regulation failed to ensure stability of the financial system in the crisis that flared in the summer of 2007. The billions of dollars of write-downs on assets related to subprime mortgages raised fears of insolvency and led to lending freezes and liquidity problems at many institutions. ; Some banks heavily reliant on short-term funding, such as Britain's Northern Rock, experienced runs. Others found themselves with a need to replenish rapidly deteriorating capital positions. All in all, the recent events underscore the need for further revisions ...
Economic Letter , Volume 4

Journal Article
America’s Missing Workers Are Primarily Middle Educated
Atkinson, Tyler; Armen, Alan (2017-03)
The labor force participation rate has fallen since 2008, partly due to an aging population and despite a more highly educated one. After accounting for aging, those whose highest educational attainment is a high school diploma, some college or an associate degree have primarily driven the participation decrease.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Shadow banking reemerges, posing challenges to banks and regulators
Musatov, Alex; Perez, Michael (2016-07)
Shadow banking has come roaring back and in new forms that still manage to escape bank regulation and could pose systemic risks since these activities remain deeply intertwined with traditional banking.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 10 , Pages 1-4

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